Down goes the Dow

coach d wrote:

Oh, and BTW Flagpole, In January, I made ~$10600 on my 2 gold contracts in January. How much did you make?

Hmm...methinks you have the wrong idea about me, brother. I'm not a chest-thumping, d!ck measuring dude who needs to beat others in the market. I'm actually happy for you that you did so well with the gold. Good for you, brother!

Not being in gold is just a financial philosophy of mine from which I will not waiver unless there are MAJOR changes in how the world does business. I have long said that gold is VERY RISKY, and it is. That doesn't mean though that there aren't times in which someone can make some serious money...that's often true with risky investments.

I just know that when I buy stocks when the market is down that eventually those purchases will bear fruit, so for any given month (or any given period of time really), I couldn't care less if someone did better than me. Chasing the BEST possible outcome is what sinks people. I'll just continue to invest, continue to stay debt free but for my house (3 years left on that) and then plan to retire completely debt free with a paid for house and lots of money in my retirement accounts. That's enough for me. I don't really care if someone else did BETTER than that...only to say that I will be happy for them.

Let the Slide Begin.

Hey Flagpole,

Have you put in any "extra" money yet into this stock market dip? (In addition to your regular contributions).

You must expect pretty big gains for the rest of the year, since you still think we'll hit the 8% or so for the entire year - That's about +15% from here. Buy, buy, buy right?

coach d wrote:

And this is what you get if you were trading Comex gold. I am on record here going short GC on Feb 15 (about the same time that George Soros and much "smart money" sold). I'm also on record calling an intermediate term bottom during the last week of December. The technical chart is on two different threads around the end of the year. I had a buy stop to by 4 limit 1190 (to go from short 2 to long 2, which was hit on 12/31:

Please link at least one of those two different threads. The only things I've seen from you on this is where you claimed to have switched 10 days after the fact.

And, why are you no longer following your moving averge system that you claimed was so great? I remember you saying you don't pick tops & bottoms - just profit from getting the meat of the major trend correct.

global stocks now down 6.1% from their peak

ALWAYS eventually goes up wrote:

Hey Flagpole,

Have you put in any "extra" money yet into this stock market dip? (In addition to your regular contributions).

You must expect pretty big gains for the rest of the year, since you still think we'll hit the 8% or so for the entire year - That's about +15% from here. Buy, buy, buy right?

Well, the Dow is down 6.82% (I'm down right on about 3% YTD as of right now) as of right now YTD, so yep, it would be right on about a 15% tick up from where we are right now if we get to the 8% level; and I still think that's possible.

So far for me though, a 6% or so drop isn't enough to inspire me to throw more in. Also, I just paid cash for some new siding to the tune of about $8,000, so I'm not really wanting to shell out some extra for investments right now.

I've really only thrown extra into the market about 10 times since 1989, so I don't do it too often.

Philosophically though, ANYTIME someone has extra money that the don't need today and they have zero debt and no forseeable need for extra cash, it's a good time to throw in extra money to the market.

agip wrote:

global stocks now down 6.1% from their peak

The Dow is down more than that.

Over 16,500 two weeks ago. Barely above 15,400 now. Nearly 7% lost in two weeks.

Still, no big deal.

It's the 20% to 40% loss you got to avoid

chalk up a minor win for the chartists -- stocks just bounced a little (albeit very little) off the 200 day moving average.

Seems to me this is all more machines trading with each other. we've had a number of these sharp falls to 1% or 2% below the 200 day, followed by an equally sharp rise back up above.

It's just all these machines trying to make the same trades at the same time.

Stock losses accelerate, with the Dow falling 300 points. Nasdaq is down 2.7%, and the S&P 500 slides 2%.

Anyone with cash should be hoping to see more downturn. It is a mindset you must have. If the companies you like are available at a lower prices you can buy more of the company. Embrace it. I only have 12% or so in cash right now. I put 2% (of total not of the 12%) of it back into the market today.

well that was awful

LRC Nation: Design my Alcoholic Beverage for When I Get Home After Work Today

This is very interesting to me. By an accident of timing, since late Dec 2013, I currently have only 2% allocated to equities, so I am in the position of wondering if I should buy, and if so, when, and what.

For me, these things are stressful whether you are currently losing OR gaining ground, because of the uncertainty. I find even holding US cash to be stressful, although the US dollar index appears to have been favorable recently.

Being on a conveyor belt that you are convinced is ever-rising must really alleviate stress. I have never subscribed to this position, however I appreciate its allure.

Do Not Log Off wrote:

This is very interesting to me. By an accident of timing, since late Dec 2013, I currently have only 2% allocated to equities, so I am in the position of wondering if I should buy, and if so, when, and what.

For me, these things are stressful whether you are currently losing OR gaining ground, because of the uncertainty. I find even holding US cash to be stressful, although the US dollar index appears to have been favorable recently.

Being on a conveyor belt that you are convinced is ever-rising must really alleviate stress. I have never subscribed to this position, however I appreciate its allure.

Trying to figure out "when" is typically folly, imho. As for "what", at least you can do a little more research on that end.

I took some profits last week (a shade more than 10% of my portfolio) and turned around and put half of that cash back in this afternoon. I'm going to wait and see what happens in the coming days before deciding what to do with the rest.

Agip.

Where is your update on how much money I have "lost" be not being in equities since I bailed with the Dow at 15,000 @ 7 months ago?

How much money have you lost in the past two weeks. You know, real money and real losses. Not potential gains missed out on.

K5 wrote:

Agip.

Where is your update on how much money I have "lost" be not being in equities since I bailed with the Dow at 15,000 @ 7 months ago?

How much money have you lost in the past two weeks. You know, real money and real losses. Not potential gains missed out on.

see top of the page

You may be correct that it is "typically" folly, but this time I sense that the situation is "atypical".

There is too much crap piling up. The world is too interconnected, there is insufficient regional/national independence. There is a balance to be struck, and the pendulum has swung too far.

So, everybody has been taken along for the ride on the train that the USA has been pulling, a phenomenon that has caused them to follow essentially the same path as the USA.

There is a time lag. What we are seeing now is the ROW passing the same point in the track that the USA passed in 2008--the only problem is that the ROW dwarfs the USA. This is a systemically deeper situation than 2008.

I'm talking on a governmental level, of course.

I get the sense that this market activity isn't entirely accounted-for by the normal profit-taking, and that I will be able to identify a time at which it will be appropriate to buy, in general. I don't think that time has yet arrived.

Just my 2 cents.

K5 wrote:

Agip.

Where is your update on how much money I have "lost" be not being in equities since I bailed with the Dow at 15,000 @ 7 months ago?

How much money have you lost in the past two weeks. You know, real money and real losses. Not potential gains missed out on.

Well, unless he sold something that he bought at a higher price than today's closing and booked a loss then he doesn't have any real losses of real money.

K5 wrote:

Agip.

Where is your update on how much money I have "lost" be not being in equities since I bailed with the Dow at 15,000 @ 7 months ago?

How much money have you lost in the past two weeks. You know, real money and real losses. Not potential gains missed out on.

but keep in mind that I don't have a 100% stock portfolio - more like 70%. So i'm down probably in the mid 3% range from the top. hardly a big deal.

But my point has always been that getting in and out based on gut feel is a losing path. Better to just stick it out and get your 10% per year from stocks.

Or use a system, like a 200 day moving average system to make your moves.

Would love for the chartists to chime in here but my recollection is that we have had major sell offs in the second term of every presidency going back to at least Clinton . History about to repeat here or is there no pattern or correlation