Down goes the Dow

Uncle Beemer wrote:

Just like I and F.

Ignorant Fool.

You appear to be lost.

Scroll down to the one on circumcision.

You appear to be a pervert.

strange thread

walnut wrote:

strange thread

Igy's back.

Bob Shiller wrote:

Current trailing 12 month PE:

http://www.multpl.com/

Data supplied by the poster proves nothing since each instance quoted is below the current trailing 12 month PE, unless he wanted to prove my point. Furthermore, CAPE 10 and 12 month PE are entirely different measurements.

What I posted has nothing to do with an Igy liar, whatever that is. I have found this thread entirely too bullish as well as unrealistic. Most views are simple expressions of industry propaganda.

Oh snap! Yes SNAP has proven to be a rather poor investment, the current market is another expression of similar foolishness.

Current trailing PE is somewhere between 23.42 and 23.65; based on a TTM EPS between $104 and a $105 for the Q2 2017. Multpl.com is dividing current S&P 500 price ( 2459.27 ) by TTM EPS of Q4 2016 ( 94.55 )

DATE _ PE _ TR

2002.03 _ 46.71 _ 3.88

2001.12 _ 46.37 _ 2.8

2002.01 _ 46.17 _ 3.31

2002.02 _ 44.57 _ 4.08

2002.04 _ 43.81 _ 4.25

2001.11 _ 43.62 _ 2.79

2002.05 _ 41.41 _ 4.22

2001.1 _ 39.72 _ 3.11

2002.06 _ 37.92 _ 4.73

2001.08 _ 37.85 _ 1.99

2001.09 _ 36.90 _ 3.13

2001.07 _ 35.46 _ 2.9

1999.04 _ 34.00 _ -2.78

2001.06 _ 33.67 _ 2.31

1999.03 _ 33.39 _ -3.51

1999.05 _ 33.19 _ -2.15

1999.01 _ 32.92 _ -1.99

1999.07 _ 32.88 _ -2.19

1999.02 _ 32.67 _ -2.66

2002.12 _ 32.59 _ 6.78

2002.07 _ 32.46 _ 6.24

1999.06 _ 32.24 _ -1.81

2002.11 _ 32.03 _ 6.44

2001.05 _ 32.02 _ 2.44

1998.12 _ 31.56 _ -1.39

2002.08 _ 31.53 _ 6.47

2003.01 _ 31.43 _ 7.26

1999.08 _ 30.89 _ -0.97

1998.11 _ 30.25 _ -0.96

1999.09 _ 29.99 _ -0.56

1998.07 _ 29.90 _ 2.45

1999.11 _ 29.74 _ -0.67

1999.12 _ 29.66 _ -0.73

2002.1 _ 29.24 _ 7.44

2000.01 _ 29.04 _ -0.58

2002.09 _ 28.89 _ 7.31

1999.1 _ 28.66 _ -0.19

2003.06 _ 28.60 _ 7.18

2000.04 _ 28.50 _ -0.18

2003.02 _ 28.46 _ 8.22

1998.06 _ 28.44 _ 3.55

2000.03 _ 28.31 _ -0.43

1998.05 _ 28.30 _ 4.01

1998.04 _ 28.26 _ 3.73

2003.05 _ 28.24 _ 7.89

2000.06 _ 28.16 _ -1.16

2003.04 _ 28.05 _ 7.97

2000.07 _ 28.05 _ -1.26

1998.08 _ 28.00 _ 3.41

2000.08 _ 27.97 _ -1.27

2001.04 _ 27.96 _ 3.06

2003.03 _ 27.92 _ 8.37

2001.02 _ 27.81 _ 2.02

2000.02 _ 27.76 _ -0.62

2003.07 _ 27.65 _ 7.46

2001.01 _ 27.55 _ 1.48

2000.05 _ 27.49 _ -0.49

2000.09 _ 27.34 _ -0.83

1998.03 _ 27.23 _ 3.64

1998.1 _ 27.20 _ 0.98

2000.11 _ 26.90 _ 0.48

1894.12 _ 26.88 _ 11.24

1998.09 _ 26.80 _ 3.42

2000.12 _ 26.62 _ 1.18

2003.08 _ 26.57 _ 7.5

2000.1 __ 26.50 __ 0.15

2003.09 __ 26.42 __ 7.29

1933.07 __ 26.27 __ 6.54

2001.03 __ 26.10 __ 2.88

1992.01 __ 25.93 __ 12.84

1998.02 __ 25.85 __ 4.46

1894.11 __ 25.79 __ 11.04

1992.02 __ 25.59 __ 12.53

1895.01 __ 25.37 __ 11.6

1934.02 __ 25.25 __ 6

1921.12 __ 25.21 __ 6.88

1992.03 __ 25.16 __ 13.18

1933.08 __ 24.81 __ 6.56

2003.1 __ 24.75 __ 7.3

1992.05 __ 24.74 __ 12.2

1992.04 __ 24.72 __ 12.75

1894.1 __ 24.56 __ 10.47

1933.09 __ 24.46 __ 6.88

1933.06 __ 24.45 __ 7.15

1991.12 __ 24.33 __ 13.68

1998.01 __ 24.29 __ 5.27

1997.12 __ 24.23 __ 6.02

1894.09 __ 24.22 __ 9.5

1992.06 __ 23.95 __ 11.66

1895.02 __ 23.94 __ 12.23

1934.04 __ 23.91 __ 6.51

1992.07 __ 23.88 __ 10.19

1934.03 __ 23.73 __ 6.86

1934.01 __ 23.73 __ 6.82

1992.08 __ 23.60 __ 10.21

1997.1 __ 23.58 __ 6.57

1997.11 __ 23.46 __ 6.17

1895.05 __ 23.34 __ 10.75

1991.11 __ 23.27 __ 13.62

1992.09 __ 23.20 __ 9.64

1993.06 __ 23.18 __ 10.22

2003.11 __ 23.15 __ 7.58

1997.09 __ 23.06 __ 6.43

1895.04 __ 23.00 __ 11.91

1895.03 __ 22.96 __ 12.53

1895.06 __ 22.93 __ 10.66

1993.05 __ 22.83 __ 9.71

1997.08 __ 22.83 __ 6.23

1992.12 __ 22.82 __ 9.55

1894.08 __ 22.81 __ 9.2

1997.07 __ 22.80 __ 6.73

2004.01 __ 22.73 __ 7.01

1993.07 __ 22.72 __ 10.28

1993.03 __ 22.69 __ 8.51

1933.12 __ 22.66 __ 7.07

1993.08 __ 22.65 __ 10.07

1961.11 __ 22.61 __ 6.05

1922.01 __ 22.58 __ 6.74

1992.11 __ 22.56 __ 10.02

1993.02 __ 22.55 __ 8.6

1993.04 __ 22.53 __ 9.22

1993.01 __ 22.50 __ 9.51

1993.09 __ 22.50 __ 10.27

1961.12 __ 22.49 __ 6.66

1991.1 __ 22.49 __ 13.06

2004.02 __ 22.46 __ 6.88

1992.1 __ 22.43 __ 9.61

1933.11 __ 22.35 __ 7.12

1961.08 __ 22.27 __ 7.04

1895.07 __ 22.21 __ 10.95

1993.1 __ 22.20 __ 10.35

2003.12 __ 22.17 __ 7.42

1946.06 __ 22.12 __ 15.81

1961.09 __ 22.05 __ 7.37

1961.1 __ 21.96 __ 7.02

1933.1 __ 21.95 __ 7.88

1961.05 __ 21.80 __ 7.72

1895.08 __ 21.77 __ 11.19

1946.05 __ 21.74 __ 15.8

1991.09 __ 21.73 __ 12.73

1961.06 __ 21.66 __ 7.66

1993.11 __ 21.64 __ 10.48

2004.03 __ 21.62 __ 7.33

1997.06 __ 21.61 __ 7.26

1961.07 __ 21.55 __ 7.61

1961.04 __ 21.44 __ 7.97

1987.08 __ 21.42 __ 14.16

1934.06 __ 21.38 __ 8.21

1994.01 __ 21.35 __ 11.06

1934.05 __ 21.29 __ 7.85

1993.12 __ 21.29 __ 10.72

1962.01 __ 21.25 __ 7.5

1991.08 __ 21.24 __ 14.05

1921.11 __ 21.23 __ 9.47

2004.04 __ 21.23 __ 7.25

1962.02 __ 21.21 __ 7.52

1946.04 __ 21.20 __ 16.2

1895.09 __ 21.19 __ 11.15

1894.07 __ 21.07 __ 9.25

1946.07 __ 21.07 __ 16.76

1994.02 __ 21.02 __ 11.19

1933.05 __ 20.99 __ 8.67

1922.02 __ 20.91 __ 6.45

1987.06 __ 20.90 __ 14.54

1962.03 __ 20.86 __ 7.76

1938.1 __ 20.84 __ 7.84

1987.07 __ 20.81 __ 14.83

1961.03 __ 20.75 __ 7.89

1894.06 __ 20.67 __ 8.58

1938.11 __ 20.64 __ 7.23

1997.05 __ 20.60 __ 7.78

1896.11 __ 20.53 __ 12.96

2004.12 __ 20.48 __ 7.71

1994.03 __ 20.42 __ 11.18

1946.08 __ 20.27 __ 16.92

1895.1 __ 20.21 __ 11.46

1934.07 __ 20.18 __ 9.02

1991.07 __ 20.18 __ 14.59

2004.06 __ 20.17 __ 7.73

1929.09 __ 20.17 __ -3.41

1894.04 __ 20.16 __ 8.23

1894.05 __ 20.16 __ 8.42

2004.05 __ 20.14 __ 7.69

2005.02 __ 20.11 __ 7.85

1896.12 __ 20.10 __ 13.28

1987.09 __ 20.09 __ 14.64

1997.02 __ 20.09 __ 7.76

2004.11 __ 20.05 __ 7.93

1962.04 __ 20.00 __ 8.22

Trailing 12 month PE and CAPE 10 are entirely different calculations. Trailing 12 month PE is not an accurate valuation metric, and forward PE even more so.

Different, yes. Entirely different, no.

The are more alike than different.

Bob King wrote:

Different, yes. Entirely different, no.

The are more alike than different.

Misleading statement, driven by deception or ignorance. Either way should be ignored. Trailing 12 month PE is not consider an adequate valuation metric.

Period the end.

Bob Shiller wrote:

Bob King wrote:

Different, yes. Entirely different, no.

The are more alike than different.

Misleading statement, driven by deception or ignorance. Either way should be ignored. Trailing 12 month PE is not consider an adequate valuation metric.

Period the end.

I bet you have never downloaded and worked with Shiller's data.

Also, AMZN's PE of 188.66 is not an adequate valuation metric ?

When bears post median TTM PE of SP500 is at an all time high; that is not an adequate valuation metric ?

Bob Shiller wrote:

Bob King wrote:

Different, yes. Entirely different, no.

The are more alike than different.

Misleading statement, driven by deception or ignorance. Either way should be ignored. Trailing 12 month PE is not consider an adequate valuation metric.

Period the end.

I see you have resorted to the tried and true strategy of the desperate by attacking the messenger when you cannot refute the message.

You do realize that the CAPE is also a trailing metric, don't you?

la gente está muy loca wrote:

Bob Shiller wrote:

Misleading statement, driven by deception or ignorance. Either way should be ignored. Trailing 12 month PE is not consider an adequate valuation metric.

Period the end.

I bet you have never downloaded and worked with Shiller's data.

Also, AMZN's PE of 188.66 is not an adequate valuation metric ?

When bears post median TTM PE of SP500 is at an all time high; that is not an adequate valuation metric ?

I would say it is more relevant than a bull posting record Dow Jones closing value. But both are inadequate stock market valuation metrics.

Record closings are news. Posting them in a thread about the Dow makes total sense. What difference does it make who posts the news. Facts are facts.

Try to keep up wrote:

Record closings are news. Posting them in a thread about the Dow makes total sense. What difference does it make who posts the news. Facts are facts.

No argument from me. At the same time the highest CAPE 10 readings since 3/2000 and only two other times higher in history.

The S&P 500 earnings are at the same level as four years ago, yet the index is almost 30% higher.

You and your clones can only handle facts with a supposed bullish conclusion. No surprise, that is the history of the markets. You'll find out soon enough.

Facts are facts.

You are a broken record. You've been saying for years that the end is near all while record after record has been set.

I'm not bullish, but I can see what's going on.

No you have always been just a market cheerleader, like 99% of the posters here. You will be silent when the bad days come. You are your own broken record, of course the latest tech version, perhaps the Echo.

I just felt compelled to cheer Bob Shiller along

See you on the other side of 18,000.

Igy

You don't know me. You try impose your weird version of reality on everyone, but we are realists. The problem is that you can't handle the truth.

Goodbye. (Not)

Helloooooo? wrote:

Anyone who thinks Igy doesn't drive the trolling here just needs to look at those few days when he was silent. It was nice to observe some respectful and mature discussion even if only briefly.

Bump.

multi-year low for the VIX. All time high for the Sp500.

This collapse in the VIX is very interesting to me - it signals that traders have thrown in the towel - they are assuming the dip should be bought without hedging your risk.

Seems to me that will move the market up as long as the news is good. But if something bad happens, I suspect the market will fall more than usual as traders rush to take off long exposure and downside risk.