When will we see ANY new world record in men's distance?

So besides the 800...and the marathon... and the half-marathon , there's a drought lol

The records are still up because they're incredible and no one can break them.

The 1500 is definitely breakable by Kiprop if he can get good pacing and he is feeling excellent on the right day.

4 out of the 6 were set before there was a test for EPO.

CERA (continuous erythropoietin receptor activator) didn't have a test until 2008.

The 3k will last another 30 years.

TLW wrote:

The 3k will last another 30 years.

Let me correct myself:

The 3k will last another 30 years unless there is another drug released similar to EPO.

Fluffy wrote:

So besides the 800...and the marathon... and the half-marathon , there's a drought lol

Yes, I'd say there IS a drought, because in close to ten years, no one has touched world marks in the six major distances I outlined.

Gebrhiwet, Alamirew and Rop will get close to 12:37 in the next 2 years.

Gebrhiwet would also have closed Moscow in 52 if Lagat hadn't got in his way. Most talented 5000 runner in the world, but unlucky and tactically clumsy.

Mo Farah would never get anywhere near any distance record and he's not going to try. He's turning to marathons and good riddance, he has turned the 5000 and 10000 into a snail-paced farce.

Kiprop could have hit 3:25 in Monaco but his timing was off and he faded badly. He is the best bet for a WR.

Nobody cares about the mile WR. The long-obsolete mile was revived as a PR stunt in the 50's, and then 3:50 kept it interesting for a couple more decades, but nobody's going to break 3:40. Go ask the average person on the street what the WR is. The mile is dead.

Look no further than crossfit. Athletes there like Rich Froning have constantly been improving their marks year in year out. Granted it's still a rather young sport but impressive, none the less.

we are talking about men's distance, not crossfit...

Assuming his listed age is accurate, Kiprop has about 2 years left before the time clock starts running against him. There is no outdoor World Championship next year, meaning he could go to Monaco or Shanghai with perfect peaking and bring a couple of his own hand picked "domestiques" like Hicham did.

Kiprop has now run 3:27 and is roughly where Hicham was one year before the WR. If the force is with him more than it has been with Rudisha, Bolt, or Felix this year, 2014 could be the year.

Drugs or not, El G, Komen, Bekele, Gebreselassie, etc. were once in a generation talents. That's why no one has broken their world records, because nobody since these men have been good enough.

Kiprop has a very good shot at breaking 3:26 and 3:43, however I don't think he'll ever surpass El G's record of 31 sub-3:30 performances. El G dominated the world at 1500m like Bernard Lagat dominates americans at 5000m.

Isiah Koech and Hago Gebrihiwet(?), assuming they both really are just 19, also have a chance to develope and improve, but even then they are still 10 seconds away from 12:37.35. But remember when Eliud Kipchoge ran 12:46.53 in 2004? He was only like 19 then, and he never broke 12:50 again. Basically, Koech and Gebrihiwet could follow 2 paths, and I certainly hope they don't follow the former.

The 10,000m record will likely take longer to break than the 5000m record because it will probably be someone who is really good at 5000m who is also a good 10,000m runner.

3000m record is practically set in stone, so we best get used to that.

xenomorph wrote:

....and I certainly hope they don't follow the former....

Excuse me, I meant I hope they don't follow the latter.

they're prob all pretty much out of reach now

no-one except rudisha can threaten 800 going forward

marathon ...i don't think so with the drug testing

3 5 10 impossible

kiprop 1500? maybe not

Ezekiel Kemboi could get the 3000SC WR anytime he wants to if he would just finish in lane 1

Seems like Farah could grab the 1500m record most easily... two seconds off in his first real attempt and not trained for it.

xenomorph wrote:

3000m record is practically set in stone, so we best get used to that.

I disagree - the 3000m may very well be the softest among the 800m, 1500m, 3k, 5k, and 10k.

People here just get themselves wet over it since we very rarely see 7:2x, but that's not because of the inherent difficulty relative to similarly approaching other world records.

7:29.00 is (relative to distance) about the same off the world record as:

1:43.13 800m

3:30.17 1500m

12:51.23 5k

26:45.30

and all those times are rare enough, despite the fact that those distances are contested more often. The 800m and 1500m in particular have numerous fast setup attempts per year.

Didn't Rupp run 7:30 this year? Wake me when he gets similarly close to the 1500m or 5000m records.

they'll be broken when someone develops a new undetectable drug as good as EPO

Bad Wigins wrote:

Gebrhiwet, Alamirew and Rop will get close to 12:37 in the next 2 years.

Gebrhiwet would also have closed Moscow in 52 if Lagat hadn't got in his way. Most talented 5000 runner in the world, but unlucky and tactically clumsy.

Mo Farah would never get anywhere near any distance record and he's not going to try. He's turning to marathons and good riddance, he has turned the 5000 and 10000 into a snail-paced farce.

Kiprop could have hit 3:25 in Monaco but his timing was off and he faded badly. He is the best bet for a WR.

Nobody cares about the mile WR. The long-obsolete mile was revived as a PR stunt in the 50's, and then 3:50 kept it interesting for a couple more decades, but nobody's going to break 3:40. Go ask the average person on the street what the WR is. The mile is dead.

Yo Wiggo - I agree that the mile is now dead [altho it's ghost does fight on] - but it's a bit much to claim that it was "long-obsolete" in the 1950s and "revived as a PR stunt."

Can't claim to have detailed knowledge about all of the Commonwealth, but here in the good old US of A, pretty much all tracks were yards tracks until the 1980s and US college athletes raced yards distances [including the mile.]

It was only when US tracks went metric and the NCAA went metric with them that the mile started dying.

Also disagree about "nobody's going to break 3:40" for the mile'cause I think we will see someone break 3:25 for 1500m, and that someone will then have good reason to take a serious rip at 3:40 for the mile. Comparable to Komen breaking 8 for 2M [which as far as I know isn't a standard race distance anywhere but the US] - it's a nice round number and he knew he could do it.

kartelite wrote:

xenomorph wrote:

3000m record is practically set in stone, so we best get used to that.

I disagree - the 3000m may very well be the softest among the 800m, 1500m, 3k, 5k, and 10k.

People here just get themselves wet over it since we very rarely see 7:2x, but that's not because of the inherent difficulty relative to similarly approaching other world records.

7:29.00 is (relative to distance) about the same off the world record as:

1:43.13 800m

3:30.17 1500m

12:51.23 5k

26:45.30

and all those times are rare enough, despite the fact that those distances are contested more often. The 800m and 1500m in particular have numerous fast setup attempts per year.

Didn't Rupp run 7:30 this year? Wake me when he gets similarly close to the 1500m or 5000m records.

By the time I get this up 5 other people will have probably already pointed out that the 3000m WR is 7:20.67, so 7:29 has nothing to do with anything.

In fact, all the big dogs have taken serious shots at the 3000m record - El G, Geb, K Bekele - and no one has gotten close.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Go ask the average person on the street what the WR is. The mile is dead.

Go ask the average person what any world record is...