The first half of your post is sensible.
That was kind of my point, like he is probably a 12:52-12:54 guy right now and placed where a 12:52-12:54 guy should have. Now he needs to become a 12:47-12:49 guy with a slightly better kick and he will be in the battle again for a medal of any color.
Though he did not threaten a medal, he handily beat Gebremeskel in the 10000m, and came back to beat Alamirew in the 5000m. Before the finish, nobody would have given him a chance against either one of them in those races.
The second half is just silly. In nearly every race, one can find some superior runner who had a bad day (or who quit when he realized that he was not going to medal). The fact that Rupp beat these particular two is completely meaningless.