It is pretty simple really. The Kenyans and Ethiopians race as individuals. It is not in any individual's best interest to push the pace (except perhaps for folks who know beforehand that they have no shot - then there is some possibility that the field will simply let them go).
You think of the Ethiopians and/or Kenyans as some sort of team. That is the flaw in your thinking. Think of them as completely independent individuals, shooting for their own individual glory, and then what plays out before you time and time again becomes obvious.
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well maybe I think of them as a team, a little. But even if we think of them as individuals...each KNOWS Mo has outkicked them in the last 400 every freaking time. Every one of the kenyans and ethiopians can run 12:55...you would think ONE of them would push things along. Like the Kenyan who knows he can only run a 54 last lap. Esp considering Mo had a 10k in his legs.
it has happend in wc races, but only once to my knowledge - '93 a guy beat Geb by gettting a 75 meter lead and gutting it out.[/quote]
(1) Nearly every 1500m and 5000m runner thinks that they have a great kick. Thus, very few would be willing to concede that they have no chance against Mo in a sit and kick affair (even if, to an outside observer this may seem obvious).
(2) It follows that every single legitimate medal contender is thinking that they have at least a shot at gold by sitting and kicking.
(3) Each of them believes that they have zero shot at gold by taking on pace setting duties.
(4) Their actions necessarily follow.[/quote]
Yes. Plus people are NOT JUST racing for gold. That is for Americans who think every place except first is for losers. Every medal has dollar signs attached to it. You win a medal, any medal, immediately your agent can get more for you. It's a big career boost to win a medal so why jeopardize that by taking it out and probably not medalling as a result.
These are professional RUNNERS. They're not professional KENYANS or ETHIOPIANS.
Even fast-paced races are still decided by kicks. All a fast pace would do is ensure a faster winning time for Farah. If anything, a fast pace would make it easier for Farah to get in kicking position. The pack would be strung out and probably no one would fight him for leading position like Alamirew did.