Ritz @ WC's - Best possible finish (w/i reason)?

I just know that I want Ritz to medal more than any other US runner except maybe Symmonds.

Long shot? Yes

Impossible? Not for Ritz.

** You forgot to mention his World 1/2 marathon race- didn't he medal there?

5th-10th

I think 7th would be good for him.

I don't doubt for a second that he can medal. Bronze would not surprise me. One thing is for sure, we can count on him for an honest effort.

4th in 27:08, pack goes out hard and starts to falter after 5k. Ritz shadows the leaders like he did in his AR 5,000 and starts moving up at the end...maybe even catching Rupp.

runn wrote:

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** You forgot to mention his World 1/2 marathon race- didn't he medal there?

I didn't forget. But w/o going back & looking up the other racers, I doubt that race is nearly as competitive as a "normal" WC final. Andrew Carlson was 20th in that race. Ritz' other feats are much more impressive IMO.

And yea- I'm rooting for Ritz more than anyone.

The "x" factor in the race will be the weather. The high for Saturday looks to be about 82-83, which given the relatively early race time, looks like a temperature of high 70s (and maybe even 80) at the gun. Everyone agrees that the race, however it goes, will be made by the East Africans. Will the very warm weather cause them to back off a fast pace? Will it encourage them to go out fast? Discounting considerations of weather, the ideal for Ritz would be a steady pace taking them through 5000 at 13:30-35. But will there be a steady pace? Will the weather slow it down? Ritz showed in Berlin, where it was 77 at race time, that he can run well in warm weather. Also, he was doing heat acclimatization work in preparation for Des Moines, and following that there was a heat wave in Utah, where he spent most of his time following Nationals (one workout of 10x800 was in 95 degrees). Also, I'm sure Salazar has been paying attention to the weather and has had the boys doing more acclimatization work. Now, when Ritz ran 7:47 for 3000 earlier in the year, he had run 110 miles that week. When he ran 3000 in London, he had run similar mileage. Those were the only times all year he looked flat. At Pre (where it was 77 at race time, but with low humidity), he looked terrifically spry, and I think that's the Ritz we'll see it Moscow. I think he can be as high as fifth, and with an extremely outside chance to medal, but if the race goes out in under 13:40, I think he'll PR (and in the best of worlds goes under 27:13).

Probably has 26:55 ability or so right now.

Will be in contact with the lead pack until 9200.

Will get absolutely rolled over the last two laps. The only question is how badly. If it goes slow, he is massively kicked down to 8th or lower. If it is a fast race, 5th-7th could happen.

How is it that Salazar has miraculously developed closing speed in guys with no real kick a few years ago, yet not in Ritz? Bizarre. Maybe he needs his thyroid checked, as in the Conte protocol.

Good thread.

Realistically, 3rd. Don't see how he beats Mo and there is likely at least one other guy who is just plain old better than Ritz is.

However, I certainly think the stars could align and he get's 3rd. I disagree with the posters who say he should make it a fast race. Ritz is tough, but his best chance is to hope its fast from the gun and not because of him.

Here's what needs to happen for Ritz to medal.

Decent pace where Ritz doesn't need to lead a step through 8k (call it 27:30 pace). At 2k, a pack of 4 break off at likely 4:00/mile pace or thereabout, Ritz maintains contact. With 600 to go one of the 4 (unlikely Mo) tries to break it open. Ritz, now 10-15 meters back, starts to close (maybe at 60sec pace at that point) but actually loses 1.5 seconds over the next 200 meters on the top 4 guys likely running sub 57 pace from 600 out.

By 300 to go, 1, maybe 2 of the top 4 begin to crack when one of the 4 (again, not Mop) takes the lead and drops it down to 55 sec pace, trying to drop Mo before the final 100-150. Ritz starts catching up.

With 150 to go, Ritz passes #4, Mo has already taken the lead, and is now 50 meters ahead of Ritz. Its a race for 1st (at lest until the last 50) and the guy in 3rd is coming back to Ritz.

Ritz, realizing he can grab a bronze, finds a gear he didn't realize he had in the last 75 or so and with 15 meters or so to go, passes the dude for 3rd. He closes in 1:27/57 and the guy he beats for 3rd runs 1:28.5/60

This is the scenario (or something very close to it) where Ritz medals.

He needs

1) a fast race that isn't ridiculously fast until the last 2l (i.e. no sub 13:00 last 10k. No sub 27:00 time. More like 27:20-35 through 8k)

2) someone to break the race open with 2k to go, and then someone else to try and take it to Mo with 600 to go.

3) He needs all but 2 of those in the break to crack as he comes up on them over the last 300

Best, and in my opintion, only way. But I could definitely see it happening.

I don't think there's anything mysterious about Rupp developing great closing speed. He can run close to 11 for 100 meters, and has finished workouts running 50 for 400. Add to this that Salazar has been working on his closing speed for over five years, so it had better be good by this point. Also, Rupp has absolutely world class running form: beautiful foot plant, and superb body position when his foot plants. Nevertheless, it should be noted that although Rupp has closed very well in some races--2012 Olympic Trials and Olympics--against the best competition, these occasions have been rarer than one might think. In any case, Rupp's closing speed is not in Farah's class. Farah has always been a very good closer, although now he's the best in the world. We should remember that genetically he is an East African (and the great irony--poor sprinters, great long distance closers). Centro also has been able to close well long before he got to Salazar. Ritz, however, not only is not naturally fast (I'm guessing he's high 25 for 200), but he has terrible sprinting form, because he continually overstrides--his foot plant is much too much in front of him.

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

Probably has 26:55 ability or so right now.

Will be in contact with the lead pack until 9200.

Will get absolutely rolled over the last two laps. The only question is how badly. If it goes slow, he is massively kicked down to 8th or lower. If it is a fast race, 5th-7th could happen.

How is it that Salazar has miraculously developed closing speed in guys with no real kick a few years ago, yet not in Ritz? Bizarre. Maybe he needs his thyroid checked, as in the Conte protocol.

Good thread.

5th would be a great day

here's how I see it:

the race should be defined by the east african team tactics to beat up on Farah - they are going to send sacrificial lamps out on surges, forcing Farah to either cover or not - if he covers, he might redline and fade - if he doesn't cover then he falls back and has to deal with someone 50 meters up on him. Basic tour de france team tactics.

So the odds are against farah - it is basically 7 vs 1 here.

So Ritz - I think his best bet is to run his own race, aiming for 27 flat or thereabouts and see where that leaves him with 800 to go. he can take a long pull, and might be able to collect some detritus spewed out the back in a surgy race.

I love Ritz, but no chance.

I don't think the Ethiopians are going to work well together as a team. They have no incentive to do it. Merga is always too focused on fighting for himself and the other two have too much at stake for their careers right now to be the sacrificial lamb. It's entirely up to the Kenyans to set an odd pace for this race. That leaves Farah, Rupp, and three Ethiopians conserving some energy at the start. I think Ritz is looking at 5th place finish best case scenario and 7th is more realistic.

I can't argue with you agip. I agree, 5th would be a great race. I'm just saying that I wouldn't fall over shocked if he somehow snuck in a bronze. I see one scenario and one scenario only where it happens. But that scenario is not entirely remote. If 5th is great, 3rd would be phenomenal, unlikely, not probable, but possible.

Ritz doesn't have the closing speed to be a factor in this race...That said, I would like to see him win more than anyone else, but he doesn't have the legs for it.

runn wrote:

I just know that I want Ritz to medal more than any other US runner except maybe Symmonds.

Long shot? Yes

Impossible? Not for Ritz.

** You forgot to mention his World 1/2 marathon race- didn't he medal there?

Ritz' surprises have always come from grinding against the odds in really difficult situations, over a long stretch.

Maybe he could deal with a suicidal race that throws all the typical jog/kick experts off their expectations, especially if the EA waste themselves trying to lose Mo.

Likely finish? 6th-8th

Possible, but not too likely? 3rd-5th

Relatively fast race without too many surges. There will have to be a breakaway that separates the top 3-5, since he isn't going to outkick anyone. Ritz is a grinder. He won't be able to respond to aggressive surges. If the pace steadily picks up and the top guys are right on the red line, then he has a chance.

Ritz is a classy and gutsy runner, I'm wishing him all the best.

The Ethiopians and Kenyans will both have plans , Kenyans prefer to surge and break the race apart , Ethiopians vary tatics , this time will be the fast hard last half 5k , they cannot use thier trusted kick as years past.

If Ritz is smart and stays away from the team racing he could pick up the pieces at the end and best case top 5 , worst case top 9.