EVAN JAGER leading

are you joking?

Huling ran that time in 2010. If you use the website google.com and type in "Dan Huling," the first website will give you that information.

http://www.usatf.org/Athlete-Bios/Dan-Huling.aspx

love steeples wrote:

I read through the letsrun preview for steeplechase. I think Evan should really consider leading the steeplechase so he can take full advantage of his hurdling skill. He shouldn't get stuck behind Kenyans who hurdle so horribly. He can try to tuck onto the shoulder when they go by him with 2 or 3 laps to go.

Also, when did Schumacher's other steeplechaser Huleing run 8:13.29? Typo or did I miss this result?

Yeah because leading from the start in a World Championship/Olympic distance race always works out.

Sorry, I don't mean to be sarcastic, I couldn't resist.

You make a point but if he leads he'll be swallowed up on the last lap.

The pack will thin out, he just has to stay out of trouble until then.

Americans can't lead races.

Don't be ridiculous.

asdfasdfa wrote:

Huling ran that time in 2010. If you use the website google.com and type in "Dan Huling," the first website will give you that information.

http://www.usatf.org/Athlete-Bios/Dan-Huling.aspx

+1

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runn wrote:

if he leads he'll be swallowed up on the last lap.

And if he doesn't lead he'll be dropped on the last lap. Assuming the pace is the same, I don't think leading costs him anything, and as the OP points out, it might actually help by limiting the interference from other runners.

He led for a long time in the olympics...then he got wasted when the medalists decided to go.

This is a very interesting race this year and it all comes down to Kemboi's (and the Kenyan coach's) decision making. If he takes it out fast (7:58), the only person who will be there in the end is Koech, but the faster it is, the better chance Koech has of winning.

If Kemboi lets it go slow he's going to have to test his kick against Kipruto and there will be traffic in the form of Benabbad, Mutai, and Jager, all of whom could medal.

My guess is the Kenyan coach says "go fast." Then Kemboi and Koech will take gold and silver (not necessarily respectively) and of the remaining four medal threats, two are Kenyans, giving the team a good shot at a sweep.

If they go slow, there's seven guys who will be there in the end, with the best kickers being the medalists and there could potentially be only one Kenyan on the podium.

8 flat is 2:40/km. i'd bet that they go out in 2:45-2:47, the second km is again 2:47ish, and then the kenyans start to go with a km to go. maybe 2:35 for the last km for 8:07 finish, with jager probably 4-5 seconds back.

i'd love for it to go out fast though, as jager could use a PR. he won't medal, but if the race is 8:02 or faster for the winners, he could conceivably run 8:06/8:05.

reed wrote:

8 flat is 2:40/km. i'd bet that they go out in 2:45-2:47, the second km is again 2:47ish, and then the kenyans start to go with a km to go. maybe 2:35 for the last km for 8:07 finish, with jager probably 4-5 seconds back.

i'd love for it to go out fast though, as jager could use a PR. he won't medal, but if the race is 8:02 or faster for the winners, he could conceivably run 8:06/8:05.

I'd think Jager would have a better shot at medaling in a fast race.

Jager/Cabral tried this at the Olympics, as I recall, and it got them nothing, the Kenyans jogging behind them and burning them. But Jager, who does not have much turnover when it comes down to the kick despite having the highest sprint speed of Jerry's old core group of Solinsky, Teg, and Jager, seems to run very easily at quick paces prior to that. And he showed he was in great shape early this season with that 8:08. So, I think that he would be much advantaged by a quick pace close to 8 flat, and he would take down his American record by a few seconds with a possible medal, depending on how strong the Frenchman and of course the Kenyans are that day.

crazy raisin wrote:

asdfasdfa wrote:

Huling ran that time in 2010. If you use the website google.com and type in "Dan Huling," the first website will give you that information.

http://www.usatf.org/Athlete-Bios/Dan-Huling.aspx

So he ran it 3 years ago?

His best is 8:22 this year.

Thanks for information.

+1

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jjjjjjjjj wrote:

Jager/Cabral tried this at the Olympics, as I recall, and it got them nothing, the Kenyans jogging behind them and burning them. But Jager, who does not have much turnover when it comes down to the kick despite having the highest sprint speed of Jerry's old core group of Solinsky, Teg, and Jager, seems to run very easily at quick paces prior to that. And he showed he was in great shape early this season with that 8:08. So, I think that he would be much advantaged by a quick pace close to 8 flat, and he would take down his American record by a few seconds with a possible medal, depending on how strong the Frenchman and of course the Kenyans are that day.

I don't know that it got them nothing. Cabral was never going to win a medal -- 8th was a damn good finish for him. 6th was not bad for Jager either.

Leading will not result in a medal. His best chance for a medal is staying on the outside early and being in 5th place right away. The Kenyans will break it open early. They control the race and one will make a move to make it fast to let a better teammate win. And the others will jump on the train. Jager just needs to watch that and stay close.

jager can go 8 flat.

that is a bronze medal.

longjack wrote:

jager can go 8 flat.

that is a bronze medal.

Or even Silver- last 600m will be covered in 90 seconds.

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

Jager/Cabral tried this at the Olympics, as I recall, and it got them nothing, the Kenyans jogging behind them and burning them. But Jager, who does not have much turnover when it comes down to the kick despite having the highest sprint speed of Jerry's old core group of Solinsky, Teg, and Jager, seems to run very easily at quick paces prior to that. And he showed he was in great shape early this season with that 8:08. So, I think that he would be much advantaged by a quick pace close to 8 flat, and he would take down his American record by a few seconds with a possible medal, depending on how strong the Frenchman and of course the Kenyans are that day.

Yeah they SORT of tried that at the olympics. The difference is OP wants Jager to lead a FAST race, not go out and run 8:25-30 pace until the last 600 meters like in the Olympics. I like Jager, but unless he has been doing some serious work on his kick, he has two choices, lead and get passed by the kickers on the last lap, or tuck in and let them do the work, and get burned by the same kickers on the last lap.

M.C. Confusing wrote:

Yeah they SORT of tried that at the olympics. The difference is OP wants Jager to lead a FAST race, not go out and run 8:25-30 pace until the last 600 meters like in the Olympics. I like Jager, but unless he has been doing some serious work on his kick, he has two choices, lead and get passed by the kickers on the last lap, or tuck in and let them do the work, and get burned by the same kickers on the last lap.

Cabral led the Olympic semis in making the final. He & Jager led much of the finals & did well. Cabral in particular overachieved with 8th. And I can find hundreds of runners who stayed back in races unsuccessfully.

PLUS: Centro's a "genius" for running in Lane 2, running longer & faster for 50% of the 1st 3 laps, off the leader's shoulder & taking the headwind too (before getting passed just before the gun lap). But Lane 1 leading, no extra distance is an issue.

Honestly I think Jager could medal because his 3000m PR of 7:35 is a lot better than anyone else's in the field...and his 5k is really strong too. He's got a better chance in a faster race for sure with that strength. Pretty sure Kemboi's only run 7:44 for 3k so Jager has him there.

What Would Fam Do?