Nice read , thanks
Im surprised that Renato thought the pacing was good for Asbel. I thought the first lap was too fast! 52.95 for the pacer so maybe 53 mid for Asbel? Or was he further back - i dont remember.?
Michale Portillo wrote:
Im surprised that Renato thought the pacing was good for Asbel. I thought the first lap was too fast! 52.95 for the pacer so maybe 53 mid for Asbel? Or was he further back - i dont remember.?
That's not that fast; considering that 3:27.7 is about 55.3 per lap, and everyone usually runs the first lap a little bit faster.
I disagree with Renato about Mo's potential at 3000m right now.
Renato thinks Mo could only manage 7:24 - 7:25.
Well, Mo is already faster over 1500m than Daniel Komen ever was. I think (as well as Renato) Mo could manage about 12:40 flat for 5000m (possibly a few tenths under). So Komen had slightly better endurance than Mo right now.
But considering both of the above, Mo could absolutely run better than 7:24-7:25. Really, what would Renato have Mo run to show 7:20 potential? A 3:26 1500? Not going to happen for a guy like Mo. He doesn't need to. He has better endurance than El G.
I think Mo could, in a perfect race with even pace and rabbits to 2k, run 7:20. The challenge is finding the perfect pacing and rabbits to take him that far. And then Mo would have to take it and not let the pace slack, something he hasn't seemed to be interested in doing.
Asbel seems to be one of the only guys currently running now who really is committed to getting a fast time. I was happy to see him move past the rabbit with 500m to go so as to not let the pace lag. Mo could learn something from him.
someone had to do it wrote:
Asbel seems to be one of the only guys currently running now who really is committed to getting a fast time. I was happy to see him move past the rabbit with 500m to go so as to not let the pace lag. Mo could learn something from him.
This was the first time I'd ever seen Kiprop take the pace out fast for a quick time. Just a few weeks ago the story was, "Kiprop's lazy, he only does barely enough to win, blah blah blah..." so I wouldn't characterize him as 'really committed to getting a fast time.' This was just one race; other than that he's a lot like Mo.
"Asbel was able to finish last lap under 55" showing a very great personality."
Love it. Running a fast last lap is going to be the first thing I look for in someone's personality.
categorically wrote:
"Asbel was able to finish last lap under 55" showing a very great personality."
Love it. Running a fast last lap is going to be the first thing I look for in someone's personality.
The article was "google translated" from Italian.
I guess Renato meant "character" or something on the order of that.
But I liked the humor in the wording, too.
categorically wrote:
"Asbel was able to finish last lap under 55" showing a very great personality."
Love it. Running a fast last lap is going to be the first thing I look for in someone's personality.
+1
I think something was lost in translation?
someone had to do it wrote:
He has better endurance than El G.
Based on what? El G has a better 5k time doesn't he? I would consider El G superior in both speed and endurance to Farah.
kks wrote:
someone had to do it wrote:He has better endurance than El G.
Based on what? El G has a better 5k time doesn't he? I would consider El G superior in both speed and endurance to Farah.
El G's 5k pr is 12:50 while Mo's is 12:53. El G's 3k pr is nearly 10 seconds better than mo (although i'll admit mo hasn't raced one in a while)
7:20 + [ .6 x [ 12:53 - 12:39 ]]
= 7:20 + [ .6 x 14 ] = 7:28
Mo has NO CHANCE to run 7:20 for a 3k.
J.R. wrote:
7:20 + [ .6 x [ 12:53 - 12:39 ]]
= 7:20 + [ .6 x 14 ] = 7:28
Mo has NO CHANCE to run 7:20 for a 3k.
Idiot
go fetch me daniel komen's 1500m PR
go fetch me the last time Mo was in a fast time trial 5k that didn't slow in the 4th km when the rabbit dropped out
go
kks wrote:
Based on what? El G has a better 5k time doesn't he? I would consider El G superior in both speed and endurance to Farah.
Based on Mo running a sub 60:30 half marathon
and sub 26:50 10k
Mo hasn't been in a fast 5k in over 2 years
He could run 12:40 flat right now
why don't people understand this
christ
You do, in my opinion, the mistake to look at PB of the athletes without looking, or knowing, at their characteristics.
Daniel Komen was absolutely able running very fast alone. I can almost say he was disturbed by his rabbits, since never ran so fast when his pacers went too ahead in the competition.
I had Shaheen, for example, who in 2006 had the potential for running 7'20" in 3000m and under 7'50" in steeple, but he never was a guy able running alone. He was a "killer" of the other competitors, Daniel Komen was a "killer" of the time.
Also, don't look at PB of this athletes like their "real" record. If Mo didn't run in Monaco, his PB could still be 3'33"98, and all this discussione couldn't happen.
Komen could run well under 3'30" when at the top of his shape, and could run well under 27', but never had, of tried to have, the opportunity for running at his best event different from 3000 and 5000m.
Athletics at top level is also a problem of money, and the appearances (which several years ago were very high) obliged top athletes to repeat always their best event.
For giving an idea, Shaheen could have 60,000 USD for starting 3000 steeple for trying WR, and in the same meeting no more than 2,000 if wanted running 5000m. So, you can see something strange : his PB in 5000m is from 2003, beating El Guerrouj with 12'48", when his value was by far not the same of the period 2005-2006, when he could run very close the WR of Bekele.
Don't think the real value of Mo is 12'53". He ran already 12'57" in 2010, when we worked together for some month in Iten, in Zurich, and now is very much stronger, after going to Salazar. To think can run near 12'40" is something reasonable, such as the possibility of running under 26'30" in 10000m.
But 7'20", in my opinion, is the strongest record in middle distances. I don't know about the calculator of Ventolin, and normally I don't like to think at what athletes could do in the past, because I live in the present thinking of the future. But, because we speak about the Future of Mo, and not the past, I think the evaluation of Ventolin can be really interesting, also because Mo is, after Gebrselassie, the only athlete having a range so wide IN THE SAME PERIOD.
Haile ran 3'31" winning World Indoor Ch when was WR holder of 5000 and 10000m, only after many years moved to marathon.
Kenenisa could be the same : he ran only once 1500m at the end of a season, without too much shape and motivation, in 3'32"35, and coul run around 3'30" at the peak of his shape in the right period. However, they tried several times to face Komen's record, and never were able running very close 7'20". The same El Guerrouj.
One my doubt is Mo has still to show his ability in running alone, against the watch and not against other competitors.
And, when you look at a record, of course you have to run great part of the race alone.
Personally, I don't think he can try any record BEFORE Moscow. May be can try something after, but, in the case of winning both the titles, he can go out of WCh nervously empty, and for trying a record you need to be at the top of your nervous energies.
If Mo wants to try some record (specifically 10000m), the right season is the next. To prepare a full marathon for April doesn't mean is not possible to be at the top for 10000m at the end of August. It depends on his motivation, and on the choices of Salazar lookin at Rio 2016.
J.R. wrote:Mo has NO CHANCE to run 7:20 for a 3k.
ventolin^3 wrote: the fastest 2 prelim estimate i can envisage for him currently are
50.5 / 1'46.7 ->
3'29.75
4'45.59
7'20.88
12'41.06
26'33.37
to
50.0 / 1'45.9 ->
3'28.59 !!!
4'44.25
7'19.31
12'39.37
26'32.48
the last set is likely to give some posters here also an irruption !!!
just don't be shocked if mo blasts thru 3'30
if he wants it, he can do it
let's just hope it's not just another awful 2'37 at the bell...
Hi Renato:
If you get a chance, would you mind talking about the training of Kosencha, Kinyor, and any other 400-800 guys running today. Thanks.
'Also, don't look at PB of this athletes like their "real" record. If Mo didn't run in Monaco, his PB could still be 3'33"98, and all this discussione couldn't happen'
What would your estimate be for Mo over 400m right now?
Also, I don't understand how a runner does 12.9 for 100m in any cirumstance but a gale and can run 3:28
Thanks for taking the time to post all of that, Mr. Canova. I think nearly everything you said is completely true. However, do to really think that several athletes have been capable of ~12:40? Obviously you would know far more than I do, but it seems that low 12:40 performances are so rare as to be almost impossible, only the realm of the absolute best ever. While Mo and Shaheen are each outstanding runners, are they really that special?
Renato Canova wrote:One my doubt is Mo has still to show his ability in running alone, against the watch and not against other competitors
this is the only major factor
he cannot allow slower than 4'55 at even-pace to 2k then has to run last 1k solo in 2'25 ( which may be 1'30 to bell & then finish with a 55 finish to get 7'20 )
looking at past races, i have no doubt he can do this
he winds up races from 600 out, so doing it from 1k is not going to be a problem - he trains to push from long way out