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SPMBLNPF
U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 4:23PM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I have stated previously that Bernard Lagat will NEVER break 13 minutes again. This is a cold hard reality. Galen Rupp has a lifetime ceiling of 12:55, which leaves precious little margin for error in breaking 13. Galen is not a phenomenal 5000m runner. He NEVER has been. Otherwise, how could he be only the 6th fastest U.S runner at the distance? Don't give me the mularky about how he simply hasn't had the opportunities to run fast. Don't give me some Ventolin calculator-fueled notions of sub-12:50. It is not going to happen, and I even believe the field may struggle to break 13 minutes here. I am picking the winning time to be 12:56, and it is much more likely to be Rop than Rupp. This is NOT a great field, and Alamirew or Gebremeskel would likely own this group in Monaco. It is going to likely be in the 70-75 degree range and very humid. No sun, of course, but even these weather conditions are not ideal for Galen. I am simply offering the objective analysis which should prepare the unwashed masses for the sobering reality that none of these guys can make a valid run at the U.S. record.
One final point: Lawi Lalang DOES have a chance at sub 13, and I see that the front page mentioned a thread started by somebody who declared about 1.5 years ago that Lalang was superior to Galen Rupp. Well, Lalang will prove it here in Monaco, and the fanboys will realize that Galen's only chance to smell the podium in Moscow is at 10,000m, a sniff which has become rather faint with the presence of Dejen Gebremeskel to strengthen the field, and speaking of sniffs, now let the jock-sniffing fanboys crucify me for being the messenger of truth.
reed
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 4:31PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
why do you think galen has a 12:55 ceiling if he's performed better at both the mile and 10k?

also, you could have just mentioned the weather earlier. that is a much more reasonable threat to fast times than anybody's ceilings.
real reality check
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 4:31PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Yep, you've been a real messenger of truth. Pretty much all your predictions are wrong, so just expect the opposite of what you say.
SPMBLNPF
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 4:34PM - in reply to reed Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

reed wrote:
also, you could have just mentioned the weather earlier. that is a much more reasonable threat to fast times than anybody's ceilings.



Actually, it is not. One's ceiling is directly related to how fast one may run. The weather is a variable, but one's ceiling is absolutely controlling. Weather varies, ceilings do not.
DistanceCoach1
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 4:40PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

SPMBLNPF wrote:


reed wrote:
also, you could have just mentioned the weather earlier. that is a much more reasonable threat to fast times than anybody's ceilings.



Actually, it is not. One's ceiling is directly related to how fast one may run. The weather is a variable, but one's ceiling is absolutely controlling. Weather varies, ceilings do not.


Ritz ran 12:56 and you are a fool for thinking Rupp isn't more than 1 second better than Ritz was at his best for 5k.
SPMBLNPF
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 4:44PM - in reply to DistanceCoach1 Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

DistanceCoach1 wrote:


SPMBLNPF wrote:


reed wrote:
also, you could have just mentioned the weather earlier. that is a much more reasonable threat to fast times than anybody's ceilings.



Actually, it is not. One's ceiling is directly related to how fast one may run. The weather is a variable, but one's ceiling is absolutely controlling. Weather varies, ceilings do not.


Ritz ran 12:56 and you are a fool for thinking Rupp isn't more than 1 second better than Ritz was at his best for 5k.


You underrate the condition Ritzenhein was in when he ran 12:56, and although Rupp has the silver medal, Dathan is tougher mentally than Galen. It took a lot of tenacity for Ritz to run 12:56...
killarney
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 5:44PM - in reply to reed Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

reed wrote:

why do you think galen has a 12:55 ceiling if he's performed better at both the mile and 10k?

The mile was in extremely bubble-like conditions as are most indoor miles. His 7:30.low 3K was actually a lot more impressive to me, but same story. Thus in "ventolin-like" conditions a 12:55 would be easy but that doesn't happen often.

As for the 10K, ask Renato Canova and he'll probably tell you a 26:48 isn't really better than a 12:55. Somewhere he said that most 13:10 guys could break 27:00 with enough focus on the event, but since quality 10Ks are rare, we are more impressed by them.

If that's true, than a 10K guy with 12:55 5K should be approaching 26:30. And if you look at this list, lots of the guys between 26:30 and Rupp's 26:48 have 5K PR's well north of 12:55.

http://www.letsrun.com/2010/heightweight0504.php

So is a 12:55 possible for Rupples? I think so, but I am hesitant to call any of his performances so far 'better.' But I don't think he can sit-and-kick his way to a sub-12:55 like Lagat did to run 12:53 in 2011 - which is the type of race Monaco is likely to be.
SPMBLNPF
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 7:01PM - in reply to killarney Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

killarney wrote:


reed wrote:

why do you think galen has a 12:55 ceiling if he's performed better at both the mile and 10k?

The mile was in extremely bubble-like conditions as are most indoor miles. His 7:30.low 3K was actually a lot more impressive to me, but same story. Thus in "ventolin-like" conditions a 12:55 would be easy but that doesn't happen often.

As for the 10K, ask Renato Canova and he'll probably tell you a 26:48 isn't really better than a 12:55. Somewhere he said that most 13:10 guys could break 27:00 with enough focus on the event, but since quality 10Ks are rare, we are more impressed by them.

If that's true, than a 10K guy with 12:55 5K should be approaching 26:30. And if you look at this list, lots of the guys between 26:30 and Rupp's 26:48 have 5K PR's well north of 12:55.

http://www.letsrun.com/2010/heightweight0504.php

So is a 12:55 possible for Rupples? I think so, but I am hesitant to call any of his performances so far 'better.' But I don't think he can sit-and-kick his way to a sub-12:55 like Lagat did to run 12:53 in 2011 - which is the type of race Monaco is likely to be.



Finally, somebody who can address the topic with some objectivity. Yes, many people do rate Rupp's 26:48 too highly, as most 13 flat runners who train for 10,000m can be dragged to a similar time in a time trial. Now, having said that, Rupp's 10,000m is pretty good, but people are lending way too much stock to a couple indoor performances which were, as you sort of alluded to, tailor made for the guinea pig which Alberto has created. At 27, time is running out for Galen to pop this mythical 5000m that some imagine him capable of...It is like waiting for Godot-rupp.
Conan O'Bryan
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 7:22PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Lol, wtf is a lifetime ceiling and how do you know what it is? Is it printed on the bottom of someone's foot saying that someone is only able to run this fast at best? How do you tell what someone's ceiling is? You just know by looking at them? Or do you get to be the judge of that? Unless there is some way to effectively calculate that, this whole idea of a lifetime ceiling is not an "objective" argument at all...
SPMBLNPF
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 8:08PM - in reply to Conan O'Bryan Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Conan O'Bryan wrote:

Lol, wtf is a lifetime ceiling and how do you know what it is? Is it printed on the bottom of someone's foot saying that someone is only able to run this fast at best? How do you tell what someone's ceiling is? You just know by looking at them? Or do you get to be the judge of that? Unless there is some way to effectively calculate that, this whole idea of a lifetime ceiling is not an "objective" argument at all...



You must be new around here. I am a world-renowned expert on ceilings.
On another note, Ayanleh Souleiman is not on the start lists for the 800m, and Andy Bayer is on the start lists for the 5000m. Can Bayer run 13:20? Even the world's expert on ceilings does not know.
I would expect that Jeremiah Mutai may surprise some in the 800m.
rojo
co-founder
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 8:09PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

SPMBLNPF wrote:

This is NOT a great field, and Alamirew or Gebremeskel would likely own this group in Monaco. It is going to likely be in the 70-75 degree range and very humid. No sun, of course, but even these weather conditions are not ideal for Galen.


I disagree with your assessment of the field but think you are
under stating the weather.

The race is at 8:55 pm local. The weather.com for 9 pm is as follows:

Temp:
75


FEELS LIKE:
75

HUMIDITY:
81%

PRECIP:
40%

WIND:
SW at 4
SPMBLNPF
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 8:12PM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I welcome disagreement. It makes things more interesting. I guess that means you think the field is pretty good. I just don't see anybody that will take it hard when the rabbits fall off. Koech is the only one I see who might, unless this Rop guy does. We know Lagat and Rupp won't.
Montesquieu
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 8:59PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Yes--it's unlikely the race will go under 13. This is not some deep truth. The weather will not be good. It's only three weeks out from Worlds (10000). DL 5s have been relatively slow this year. To claim, however, what someone's ceiling is, someone who has run 3:50 and 26:48, someone you've never seen train, someone whose workouts you know less than zero about, someone who's VO2 max you don't know, is nonsense. Amidst all of your blather is the simple arbitrary assertion--this is cold reality, he's not good at 5000, he never has been, don't tell me he can run faster than 12:55, blah, blah, blah. The only people who might have any sense at all about what he can do are people like Salazar and his training partners. You, sir, are a loudmouth, and you know nothing. So unless you can actually articulate some reasons, provide some evidence (you're all wrong is scarcely evidence), as to why Rupp's ceiling is 12:55 (stating it over and over again in diverse ways is not evidence), do us all a favor and keep your assertions to yourself. And as the the question of what I think Rupp's ceiling is in the 5, well, I don't know.

SPMBLNPF wrote:

I have stated previously that Bernard Lagat will NEVER break 13 minutes again. This is a cold hard reality. Galen Rupp has a lifetime ceiling of 12:55, which leaves precious little margin for error in breaking 13. Galen is not a phenomenal 5000m runner. He NEVER has been. Otherwise, how could he be only the 6th fastest U.S runner at the distance? Don't give me the mularky about how he simply hasn't had the opportunities to run fast. Don't give me some Ventolin calculator-fueled notions of sub-12:50. It is not going to happen, and I even believe the field may struggle to break 13 minutes here. I am picking the winning time to be 12:56, and it is much more likely to be Rop than Rupp. This is NOT a great field, and Alamirew or Gebremeskel would likely own this group in Monaco. It is going to likely be in the 70-75 degree range and very humid. No sun, of course, but even these weather conditions are not ideal for Galen. I am simply offering the objective analysis which should prepare the unwashed masses for the sobering reality that none of these guys can make a valid run at the U.S. record.
One final point: Lawi Lalang DOES have a chance at sub 13, and I see that the front page mentioned a thread started by somebody who declared about 1.5 years ago that Lalang was superior to Galen Rupp. Well, Lalang will prove it here in Monaco, and the fanboys will realize that Galen's only chance to smell the podium in Moscow is at 10,000m, a sniff which has become rather faint with the presence of Dejen Gebremeskel to strengthen the field, and speaking of sniffs, now let the jock-sniffing fanboys crucify me for being the messenger of truth.
SPMBLNPF
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 9:23PM - in reply to Montesquieu Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Montesquieu wrote:

Yes--it's unlikely the race will go under 13. This is not some deep truth. The weather will not be good. It's only three weeks out from Worlds (10000). DL 5s have been relatively slow this year. To claim, however, what someone's ceiling is, someone who has run 3:50 and 26:48, someone you've never seen train, someone whose workouts you know less than zero about, someone who's VO2 max you don't know, is nonsense. Amidst all of your blather is the simple arbitrary assertion--this is cold reality, he's not good at 5000, he never has been, don't tell me he can run faster than 12:55, blah, blah, blah. The only people who might have any sense at all about what he can do are people like Salazar and his training partners. You, sir, are a loudmouth, and you know nothing. So unless you can actually articulate some reasons, provide some evidence (you're all wrong is scarcely evidence), as to why Rupp's ceiling is 12:55 (stating it over and over again in diverse ways is not evidence), do us all a favor and keep your assertions to yourself. And as the the question of what I think Rupp's ceiling is in the 5, well, I don't know.



Thank you for offering nothing. I have seen Galen run more than you know. The 3:50 is a red herring. Can you not address the thread's topic, instead of expressing your dislike for me? Apparently the answer is no. You disgrace the name with the moniker you utilize.
pumo
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 9:38PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
you post on xoxo right?
Horst Girth
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 9:41PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Bologna
Montesquieu
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 9:46PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I did address the theme of the thread: I said it's unlikely that the winner will run under 13, and indeed I gave reasons why I think so. The logic of what I said is that no American will likely run under 13. But also since you devoted about 40% of your thread to Rupp, I thought that was fair game, too. And as for 3:50 being a red herring, why? Try reasons. But I suspect you're trolling and not as foolish as your remarks suggest. In fact, you remind me--from syntax to semantics--of that Rupp Saladbar critic. And as for "disliking you," please don't flatter yourself.

SPMBLNPF wrote:


Montesquieu wrote:

Yes--it's unlikely the race will go under 13. This is not some deep truth. The weather will not be good. It's only three weeks out from Worlds (10000). DL 5s have been relatively slow this year. To claim, however, what someone's ceiling is, someone who has run 3:50 and 26:48, someone you've never seen train, someone whose workouts you know less than zero about, someone who's VO2 max you don't know, is nonsense. Amidst all of your blather is the simple arbitrary assertion--this is cold reality, he's not good at 5000, he never has been, don't tell me he can run faster than 12:55, blah, blah, blah. The only people who might have any sense at all about what he can do are people like Salazar and his training partners. You, sir, are a loudmouth, and you know nothing. So unless you can actually articulate some reasons, provide some evidence (you're all wrong is scarcely evidence), as to why Rupp's ceiling is 12:55 (stating it over and over again in diverse ways is not evidence), do us all a favor and keep your assertions to yourself. And as the the question of what I think Rupp's ceiling is in the 5, well, I don't know.



Thank you for offering nothing. I have seen Galen run more than you know. The 3:50 is a red herring. Can you not address the thread's topic, instead of expressing your dislike for me? Apparently the answer is no. You disgrace the name with the moniker you utilize.
Senor Senior
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 9:46PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
You obviously don't run very often. There's much more to running than the physiological side. The psychological side is just as important. Also, a fast 10k (physiologically) takes a lot out of the bank and is a different animal than a fast 5k. It's like that at any level. For example, take a look at John Gilbertson in the NAIA this year. He ran 28:30 closing in something like 2:00 for the last 800 crushing some big D1 runners. I don't think he broke 14 in the 5k all year. Why? "Money" in the "bank" my friend. A fast 10k is a big withdrawal. It's highly likely that if Rupp focuses on the 5k, he goes under 12:50.
LM
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 9:50PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

SPMBLNPF wrote:

I welcome disagreement. It makes things more interesting. I guess that means you think the field is pretty good. I just don't see anybody that will take it hard when the rabbits fall off. Koech is the only one I see who might, unless this Rop guy does. We know Lagat and Rupp won't.


I agree here with Rojo. The field is pretty good, and contains a large number of the current big name Kenyans. I agree the Ethiopian big guns (Gebremeskel, Gebriwhet, and Alamirew) are stronger runners, especially in a kicker type race (with exception of Gebriwhet, who is seemingly more suited at the moment to a quick race and/or a mid-race surge).

As far as the bolded statement goes, I don't disagree, but just because runners won't take it on doesn't mean they fail to constitute a strong field...especially in todays reality where every single athlete races as if they believe they are a kicker.

Rop is interesting. Hadn't heard of him at all, then he solo's a large portion of that 5000 to run 12:59. A definite wildcard, but at the same time I have no idea what he can do as far as closing is concerned.

Of course, if the temps hold as forecasted then I don't think we will see sub 13. Or if it happens it will be by a thin margin resulting from an explosive final lap.
SPMBLNPF
RE: U.S. 5000m Runners Have NO CHANCE of Breaking 13 in Monaco 7/18/2013 10:01PM - in reply to Montesquieu Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
The 3:50.92 has been used as some sort of indicator by the naive that Galen can run a stupendous 5000m. This has never made sense to the intelligent.
People who don't think with rigor are doing the whole Ventolin thing....look what these two times suggest for 5000m.
Well, this is where the wheat is separated from the chaff in relation to intellectual horsepower.
First, what kind of 10,000m shape was Galen in when he ran 3:50.92i, a time which he will NEVER match outdoors, which is a topic for another thread. OK, I know enough about Galen to know that he was in close to 27:10 shape when he ran that indoor mile. Now, Galen is trying to train for the WC 10000m, and he is indeed working on his finishing speed. Yet, it remains clear that in Monaco Galen will be toeing the line unable to run faster than 3:34 for 1500m. What does this mean? It means that Galen is a runner who is currently capable of running 3:34 and 26:55. Plug those into your machine if you want, or think for yourself, and you will see what Galen is capable of in a 5000m. Galen is trying to do well in the WC 10,000m, which means he is honing his speed, but don't think
for a minute that Galen has improved his ability to time trial a 10,000m. NEVER assume that an athlete is simultaneously capable of running their personal bests at a range of distances.
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