I have stated previously that Bernard Lagat will NEVER break 13 minutes again. This is a cold hard reality. Galen Rupp has a lifetime ceiling of 12:55, which leaves precious little margin for error in breaking 13. Galen is not a phenomenal 5000m runner. He NEVER has been. Otherwise, how could he be only the 6th fastest U.S runner at the distance? Don't give me the mularky about how he simply hasn't had the opportunities to run fast. Don't give me some Ventolin calculator-fueled notions of sub-12:50. It is not going to happen, and I even believe the field may struggle to break 13 minutes here. I am picking the winning time to be 12:56, and it is much more likely to be Rop than Rupp. This is NOT a great field, and Alamirew or Gebremeskel would likely own this group in Monaco. It is going to likely be in the 70-75 degree range and very humid. No sun, of course, but even these weather conditions are not ideal for Galen. I am simply offering the objective analysis which should prepare the unwashed masses for the sobering reality that none of these guys can make a valid run at the U.S. record.
One final point: Lawi Lalang DOES have a chance at sub 13, and I see that the front page mentioned a thread started by somebody who declared about 1.5 years ago that Lalang was superior to Galen Rupp. Well, Lalang will prove it here in Monaco, and the fanboys will realize that Galen's only chance to smell the podium in Moscow is at 10,000m, a sniff which has become rather faint with the presence of Dejen Gebremeskel to strengthen the field, and speaking of sniffs, now let the jock-sniffing fanboys crucify me for being the messenger of truth.