Solomon Gold, Symmonds Silver, Manzano Gold, Jager Bronze, Lagat Silver... Rupp just missing medals.

No hate for not picking gold for everyone, but Manzano won't win (last year the Kenyans didn't show up) and I doubt we can go 1-2 in the 800 (admittedly, it would not be a huge shock).

Unlikely for Jager and Lagat; those are pretty optimistic picks, though of course possible. I like the confidence in Ritz; I agree he'll be close to a medal, though it would be a huge shock for him to get one.

the letter why wrote:

...Manzani won't win (last year the Kenyans didn't show up) and I doubt we can go 1-2 in the 800 (admittedly, it would not be a huge shock)...

Last year, Manzano beat Centro (prior yr Bronze) & Willis (prior OG Silver). And *NO* excuses against Manzano. Going into the finals, both Centro & Willis were hugely praised as being on form & looking phenomenal. But he demolished both. Manzano would've medaled no matter who was there- & it would've been Silver.

Far as Kenyans not showing up, that's the point: In big races, Manzano shows up better than anyone. Was the 2004 OG Gold tainted, because Webb wasn't in the finals?

Let's not forget that last year Centro had knee surgery in like late March or early April and was not quite up to his usual fitness by the games.

_This wrote:

Let's not forget that last year Centro had knee surgery in like late March or early April and was not quite up to his usual fitness by the games.

Again, going into the finals *everyone* said he looked spectacular & medal-ready. A medal was almost expected.

ttc wrote:

_This wrote:

Let's not forget that last year Centro had knee surgery in like late March or early April and was not quite up to his usual fitness by the games.

Again, going into the finals *everyone* said he looked spectacular & medal-ready. A medal was almost expected.

Centro also PR'd with his 3:31 a couple weeks later- awesome for being "off form". Oh let me guess: It was THOSE 2 weeks that he got on form. And if he 3:31'd 2 weeks *before* the OG's, you of course wouldn't conveniently claim an early peak.

800: With Rudisha out and Amos on the comeback from an injury, Solomon And Symmonds definitely have a good shot at a medal. Based on the year I'd say Mohammad Aman is the favorite, but both Americans beat him at the Olympics so you never know.

1500: If Kiprop and Kiplagat are healthy I'm can't put Manzano or Centro ahead of them. If the kenyans work together for a faster pace, then I don't think Manzano and Centro will be close enough for their kicks to get them up there.

Steeple: Jager has yet to show the finishing speed necessary to medal. Kipruto, Kemboi, and Mekhissi have all showed they are capable of sub 60 last laps and I think these will be the top three in some order.

5000: With a slower pace Lagat will be in it. If it's a fast pace I'm not sure if he can stay with them (08 Olympics) and there are some crazy fast ethiopians and kenyans as well as Farah. Rupp is a good 5k runner but not a medal threat in this event.

10k: Saying Ritz is gonna beat Rupp is ridiculous. I know everyone here loves Ritz, I do as well, but Rupp is just simply better than he is. Isn't Gebremeskal doing the 10k? If so Rupp will have to really fight for the medal stand.

Stop trying to create a fight.

Manzano ran the best race of his life and deserved the medal. He, along with everyone else, killed Willis, who ran like crap.

He did not, like you claim, demolish Centro in the final. He beat him, just like he did at US indoors and the USOT.

But Centro ran a very good race to get 4th, he just got beat by a guy that beat him in every big spot for the entire season.

ttc wrote:

Last year, Manzano beat Centro (prior yr Bronze) & Willis (prior OG Silver). And *NO* excuses against Manzano. Going into the finals, both Centro & Willis were hugely praised as being on form & looking phenomenal. But he demolished both. Manzano would've medaled no matter who was there- & it would've been Silver.

Far as Kenyans not showing up, that's the point: In big races, Manzano shows up better than anyone. Was the 2004 OG Gold tainted, because Webb wasn't in the finals?

Yeah he always shows up.

Except for the 07 WC, 08 Olympics, 09 WC, and 11 WC where he failed to do anything.

Not saying Manzano isn't legit, but he doesn't always bring it.

Original Gangsta wrote:

Stop trying to create a fight.

Manzano ran the best race of his life and deserved the medal. He, along with everyone else, killed Willis, who ran like crap.

He did not, like you claim, demolish Centro in the final. He beat him, just like he did at US indoors and the USOT.

But Centro ran a very good race to get 4th, he just got beat by a guy that beat him in every big spot for the entire season.

Not creating anything. Squashing ignorance. How about getting on those making excuses AGAINST Manzano's Silver, instead of getting mad that I say, "No excuses".

Anyone who thinks the USA is going to sweep the 800--and Amman is going to get nothing--is simply not playing with a full deck.

ttc wrote:

Centro also PR'd with his 3:31 a couple weeks later- awesome for being "off form". Oh let me guess: It was THOSE 2 weeks that he got on form. And if he 3:31'd 2 weeks *before* the OG's, you of course wouldn't conveniently claim an early peak.

Centro is The Man.

It will take some time for the last doubter to wake up to reality. But even those with the very lowest of IQs eventually come around.

back to reality wrote:

5000: With a slower pace Lagat will be in it.

Rupp is a good 5k runner but not a medal threat in this event.

We KNOW that when he is in peak form, Rupp can beat Lagat, and Rupp is still somehow not a medal threat?

The man ran 3:51i/7:30i this year. With those times you would have to be a fool to think Rupp is not a threat in the 5000.

The Mask of Portlandtillado wrote:

back to reality wrote:

5000: With a slower pace Lagat will be in it.

Rupp is a good 5k runner but not a medal threat in this event.

We KNOW that when he is in peak form, Rupp can beat Lagat, and Rupp is still somehow not a medal threat?

The man ran 3:51i/7:30i this year. With those times you would have to be a fool to think Rupp is not a threat in the 5000.

Well Rupp wasn't in it at the Olympics last year. He's only beaten Lagat once out of 20 times or so. At Pre he wasn't near the top guys.

This is how I see it.

1. Farah

2-5. Gebrhiwet, Gebremeskel, Alamirew, Koech (Hard to separate these 4 right now, but they'll all be trying to gun down Farah.

I think they're 3 other kenyans as well, since Koech is the diamond league champion.

I'm not saying Rupp can't medal, but it's going to be hard for any of these guys to medal based on the amount of talent in the 5k.

To the OP.. While I appreciate your nationalism, you are simply completely wrong. If your predictions for any event came right I would be almost shocked. Saying that an American will medal in every middle to long distance race alone is crazy, but to say we will sweep the 800? Not going to happen. Jäger will not medal in the SC and Manzano will not win the 1500... Hate to say it, but that's the way it goes.

Americans who could potentially** medal are:

Symmonds

Solomon

Manzano (not gold)

Rupp

Lagat

Emphasis on POTENTIALLY. That means of everything goes their way, they could maybe grab silver or bronze. An American will not win gold in the middle to long distance races at this World Championships

Come back to reality people.

i'd say that of those you mentioned, Jager has the least chance of medalling. No worries though, he'll be around long enough to have more chances.

I think Rupp will get bronze in the 10k and lagat may also get bronze in the 5k.

if the kenyans show up in form, we'd be lucky to get 3rd. manzano won't win though.

as for the 800, i feel like 2 on the podium could happen this year. it shouldnt happen, but this year things have gone their way with rudisha out and amos disappearing.

Please...... wrote:

To the OP.. While I appreciate your nationalism, you are simply completely wrong. If your predictions for any event came right I would be almost shocked. Saying that an American will medal in every middle to long distance race alone is crazy, but to say we will sweep the 800? Not going to happen. Jäger will not medal in the SC and Manzano will not win the 1500... Hate to say it, but that's the way it goes.

Americans who could potentially** medal are:

Symmonds

Solomon

Manzano (not gold)

Rupp

Lagat

Emphasis on POTENTIALLY. That means of everything goes their way, they could maybe grab silver or bronze. An American will not win gold in the middle to long distance races at this World Championships

Come back to reality people.

I concur, except that Solomon is a legitimate contender for the 800 title, not just for a medal. I'd consider him a co-favorite with Aman right now.

The Mask of Portlandtillado wrote:

We KNOW that when he is in peak form, Rupp can beat Lagat, and Rupp is still somehow not a medal threat?

The man ran 3:51i/7:30i this year. With those times you would have to be a fool to think Rupp is not a threat in the 5000.

That was indoor. And absolutely if Rupp's on form, he's a great bet to medal. But outdoors, he's been off & will need to steer back a bit on track. We'll see in another day if he's back. Not sure how this can be argued.

I think your post is reasonable, with the exception of the steeple. If Ezekial Kemboi and Conselus Kipruto are even halfway switched on they are a lock for 1-2. Jager can not sniff either of them in a fast last lap. Benabbad can run with those guys and is likely bronze, depending on how the Kenyans do (don't forget Kenya sends FOUR, including Paul Koech and Abel Mutai), as well Ethiopia's 8:06 guy Roba Gari do.

I would love to see Jager get a medal, but it would require multiple serious choke jobs. Top six would be excellent for him, given that it would require him to beat at least one of the guys above.

back to reality wrote:

5000: With a slower pace Lagat will be in it.

Rupp is a good 5k runner but not a medal threat in this event.

The Mask of Portlandtillado wrote:

We KNOW that when he is in peak form, Rupp can beat Lagat, and Rupp is still somehow not a medal threat?

Why would anyone know this? Lagat murdered Rupp the last time they raced the distance.

Rupp has ZERO chance at a medal in the 5000. MAYBE bronze if another jogfest 10,000.