With the high school track season winding down, who will be the top boys and girls teams nationally next Fall? Lots of really good returning teams. Should be a fun Fall.
With the high school track season winding down, who will be the top boys and girls teams nationally next Fall? Lots of really good returning teams. Should be a fun Fall.
Haven't looked too closely yet, but off the top of my head here are a few to look out for -
Girls Teams - FM....
Boys Teams - Arcadia, American Fork, CBA
Girls Individuals - Cain, Baxter, Efraimson
Boys Individuals - DeLaRosa, Hardy, Wilmot (if he gets healthy), and Haney
With DeLaRosa/Arcadia, it will be interesting to see what happens in the post-O'Brien era. Possibly same with Efraimson, though I'd imagine that that is less of an issue.
watchout wrote:
Boys Teams - Arcadia, American Fork, CBA
I would add Stillwater as well. They have a sub 9 freshman, a 9:33 junior, a 9:48 freshman, a 9:52 sophomore, and a 9:55 sophomore. I think their youth shows a possiblity for big improvement, especially among those 4 and 5 spots.
Brentwood, TN brings back 9:10, 9:16, 9:17, 9:44, and 9:48 guys.
Aaron Templeton finished seventh at FLN last year and comes back.
Revan wrote:
watchout wrote:Boys Teams - Arcadia, American Fork, CBA
I would add Stillwater as well. They have a sub 9 freshman, a 9:33 junior, a 9:48 freshman, a 9:52 sophomore, and a 9:55 sophomore. I think their youth shows a possiblity for big improvement, especially among those 4 and 5 spots.
While it shows potential that they have so many young sub-10 guys, that's not exactly a potential national title caliber team yet. Some teams can probably fit in 5-7 guys ahead of Stillwater's #2 or #3 at this point...
West Chester Henderson for boys
watchout wrote:
I would add Stillwater as well. They have a sub 9 freshman, a 9:33 junior, a 9:48 freshman, a 9:52 sophomore, and a 9:55 sophomore. I think their youth shows a possiblity for big improvement, especially among those 4 and 5 spots.
While it shows potential that they have so many young sub-10 guys, that's not exactly a potential national title caliber team yet. Some teams can probably fit in 5-7 guys ahead of Stillwater's #2 or #3 at this point...[/quote]
Arcadia is unlikely to do anything given they just fired their head coach.
Agree that Stillwater is about a year out from being a national threat. For instance, our team has 8:59, 9:07, 9:28, 9:39, 9:42, 9:43, 9:55. Two of those will be seniors. We will not be strong enough to win a national championship and would probably be able to beat Stillwater head to head.
I think you need two sub-9:05 guys and three more sub-9:30 guys to take the title. And then they all have to show up for the big dance.
not at liberty to say wrote:
Arcadia is unlikely to do anything given they just fired their head coach.
Agree that Stillwater is about a year out from being a national threat. For instance, our team has 8:59, 9:07, 9:28, 9:39, 9:42, 9:43, 9:55. Two of those will be seniors. We will not be strong enough to win a national championship and would probably be able to beat Stillwater head to head.
I think you need two sub-9:05 guys and three more sub-9:30 guys to take the title. And then they all have to show up for the big dance.
I wouldn't count out Arcadia just yet - they may not have the same coach, but they have the same kids, and that's the most important part of the puzzle (having the horses, as they say). Certainly makes them more questionable, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they can still finish on the podium or - close to it.
As for what it takes to be competitive for the podium at NXN... the most crowded part of the race (generally around the average #3 runner) is made up of mostly 9:30ish types. So you have to have 4+ guys not only capable of running under 9:30, but performing at THAT level on THAT day to be competitive with the upper third of the field (#1-8). The best potential podium-finishers usually come into the summer with that kind of firepower, and the improvement from then on is what kind of separates them from the rest of the pack (plus, running well when it counts of course). So a team with only 1 runner under 9:30 going into the summer is going to be a work in progress in terms of NXN Podium potential.
Example, in 2011 (not looking at last year due to the variance created by the course conditions), there was a slight break between the #76 and #77 scorers (roughly the average #3.5 runner, or about the mid point of the scoring field). That break was about the equivalent 3200m performance of a ~9:35 IMO.
Here is a breakdown of the # of runners finishing for each team had under that level, and their score:
91 Christian Brothers NJ @ 6 under
95 Southlake Carroll TX @ 7 under
157 Davis UT @ 5 under
183 Arcadia CA @ 4 under
255 Palatine IL @ 4 under
257 American Fork UT @ 4 under
259 North Central WA @ 4 under
261 Arrowhead WI @ 4 under
268 Columbus North IN @ 4 under
296 Stillwater MN @ 3 under
298 Golden Valley CA @ 4 under
304 Fayetteville-Manlius NY @ 3 under
318 York IL @ 4 under
322 Trabuco Hills CA @ 4 under
323 Gig Harbor WA @ 2 under
344 Shaker NY @ 3 under
353 Brentwood TN @ 4 under
378 Pembroke MA @ 2 under
380 Rancho Cucamonga CA @ 2 under
385 Belen Jesuit FL @ 1 under
430 The Woodlands TX @ 2 under
512 Westfield NJ @ 0 under
... there were 9 teams that pretty much broke away from the pack, and ALL had 4+ runners under that mark on that day (other teams had others that could have done so, though some of those top nine teams had additional runners that could have as well - point being, there was a clear separation and that was one of the trends that should have been noted).