Gatlin wins Beijing 100m in 9.91 (+0.1), Rodgers 9.96, Su 10.06

fixed.

Great race.

lol

I can't disagree with any of that, except that "druge" is a misspelling.

Maybe they'll be the next 2 to go down, along with L. Merritt.

It'll be interesting to see whether China or Japan goes sub-10 first. I hope Su and Yamagata and Kiryu all show up for diamond league races.

The Chinese success in the jumps is interesting to me. I was looking back at old Olympic champions andwas ssurprised how many jump champions (especially in the early days) were Japanese. Maybe Asia's sprinting capabilities are finally refelxtomg their abilities in the jumps

I think that in time, some of the best Chinese 100m sprinters will come from the ranks of the LJ'ers.

There is precedent for this, like Bruny Surin.

You know what? IF both China and Japan all of a sudden produce sub-10 sprinters in the same year, that to me will be more proof of the ubiquity of doping.

I don't know about China, but Japan has been serious about men's sprinting for years. To do it now, after we have seen the miraculous Bolt? And China to "coincidentally" do it the same year?

That would strain credibility. We will see. If it happens, you will know that the battle is lost--ESPECIALLY IF MORE THAN 1 GUY FROM EACH COUNTRY IS ABLE TO DO IT.

I will partially agree with the above stating. But I would not be suprised if two Japanese ran sub ten (Kiryu and Yamagata). I dont think that that would indicate doping

Japan no, China, yes. Japan has been knocking on the door of sub-10 for years. Sooner or later, they're going to get one, and then the floodgates might open. Considering how long ago Koji Ito's 10.00 was, I'm surprised that they haven't gotten one by now. China hasn't been close to this door until maybe now. How do you know that China isn't doping already to get close to where their big rival Japan has been?

So in your opinion "knocking on the sub-10 door for years" makes it more likely that they will now achieve it, versus less likely that they will now achieve it. There are many who believe exactly the opposite.

And as to "opening the floodgates", I can't get with that. As much as there is a group think, sprinting is individual ability. There are plenty of countries who have had one or a few sub-10 100m guys, but no "floodgate" effect.

That would be like arguing that since Lemaitre went sub-10, now it would be natural to see all sorts of white guys going sub-10, because the floodgates are open. Many posters jumped onto that bandwagon, only to see the wheels come off because the floodgates have in fact not opened.

Yes, I know there is some commonality among training programs in Japan, and not necessarily among white guys around the world--but the principle still holds, and that is one of identification. White sprinters around the world probably identify with each other, and with Lemaitre, just as much as do Japanese sprinters with each other.

If all of a sudden more than 1 Japanese guy goes sub-10, something is bogus. If more than 1 Chinese guy goes sub-10, something is bogus. If both of those occur, there is doping.

Personally I think Japan having more than one sub 10 right now could be more of a 'coincidence'. That is to say they've had a great system in place for a long time, the kind that Yamagata are the fruition of; and then Kiryu just is an unreal talent. Now if two guys in there mid-20s came down from 10.2 to 10.00 then that might be suspicious. But both Yamagata and Kiryu are quite young. The right talent could feasibly, in such a well established system, just have finally appeared.

If more than one Chinese goes under I would be more suspicous, although China does have the advantage of an enormous genetic pool

Let's be realistic. The difference between 10.01 and 9.99 is?

...a little more Red Bull for a faster reaction time.

Ato Boldon once said that white men will never run sub-10 until they stop thinking about it. Before Bolt, there are probably a slew of scientific "experts" that could have told you why 9.5x was "impossible"; Same for sub-13 and white men running sub-27. Once somebody pushes into new territory, others realize it can be done and figure out how (they work harder).

The Japanese have had a number of people that have gotten to roughly 10.02/20.05 and no further. They have great quickness, but they don't have the levers for MaxV and SE to get further, so I think they need a methodology that fits the Japanese, and not the Jamaicans (long strides) or African Americans (power sprinting), and frankly, I'm not sure what they do. If you really want to talk about racial groups being different (as much as this subject is supposed to be taboo, Lemaitre does not run like Mo Greene and Wariner did not run 43.45 like MJ). In my mind, African-Americans have an advantage in MaxV and explosiveness, caucasians have a relative advantage in SE and maybe pure power, and Asians have a relative advantage in quickness--see martial arts. So, if ONE Japanese figures out how to use that quickness slightly more (more plyometrics?), that's when the floodgates really open.

If you were China, you would probably have zillions of athletes in blocks doing highly regimented training with electronic reaction time gadgets.

Consider this: if these recent 2013 races had had max allowable wind, we would now have the following sub-10 athletes:

China - Zhang 9.99

Su 9.96

Japan - Kiryu 9.95

This would all stretch credibility--Kiryu because of his extremely young age, Zhang and Su because of absurd coincidence.

Sure, China has a huge pool of talent from which to choose--but they have for a long, long time, and they have cared about sports for a long, long time. True that they might only recently be cluing-in to high-level sprint training and coaching.

We have already heard news of the non-record-certifiable wind gauge in Kiryu's 10.01, and we have seen Su underperform in 2012 at meets at which there would be testing.

While I think it appropriate to view these results with skepticism, I don't think the doping finger should be pointed unless something truly extraordinary happens, like 9.8x basic results, or a larger number of sub-10 athletes emerges. I personally believe that China should have at least 10 sub-10 athletes, but of course that they shouldn't be going sub-low-9.8x

"Zillions"! Absolutely.

Although the terms you are using tend to be confusing, I would generally agree, I think (except for your example of martial arts!)

The Japanese have been very quick, for a very long time--just look at the historic Japanese athletes. So along comes Kiryu, who looks to have the quickest turnover of the current crop. How? How is it that a Japanese athlete comes along who does what the Japanese do better than anybody else, better than any other Japanese?

It's like BJ all over again, or Bolt. 9.5x IS impossible, cleanly. How is it that a Jamaican athlete comes along who does what the Jamaicans do better than anybody else, better than any other Jamaican? Like I have said before, there have been several seriously tall sprinters, but none who have gone anywhere near 9.5x

Sure, you have to work with what you have--but when the extraordinary exception comes along to the already extraordinary quality, you have to take a second look, because that becomes the realm of the absurd.

The real hope is not Japan, but China, where athletes with builds like Xiang, and even Lemaitre, abound. Like I said, they have to start selecting from a different pool than the one that Su came from. Guys like Su have a ceiling that will not get them up with the world's best. Period. A terrier will never keep up with a greyhound.

They should have begun selecting and cultivating several years ago, maybe especially looking at their LJ'ers.

But couldn't it also follow that since the Japanese have always shown exceptional turnover then when their best appear they would excel even further in that capacity in particular?

I do think they need to look to the jumpers though