Next American Under 13

ALAN WEBB 12:58.54

adsfasdf wrote:

I think 2 of the following guys will break 13 minutes in the 5k this year by the end of the summer:

Lomong

True

Derrick

Jager

Bumbalough

Cam Levins will break 13:00 before any of these guys.

He also has a better chance at a medal in 2016 than Galen "Slowest Silver Since the Seventies" Rupp.

Lomong ran 13:07/3:51 indoors, so he should be a lock if he gives it several attempts.

The other guys lack some speed but Jager and Bumbalough and Derrick and True all have the ability to get within 5-6 seconds of it this year.

Eric MF Jenkins. 12:59

Alan Webb 13:59

"Slowest Silver Since the Seventies"

That's a low blow, and irrelevant. Levins is a good runner and has lots of potential, but up to this point he's not as accomplished as Galen Rupp, so let's not pretend like he is.

Don't worry Cain fans. She will break 13 in 8 years since she is more boy than girl anyways.

I second Webb. His Oxy performance doesn't surprise me at all. He's going to be ready in three months.

You fools don't appreciate the difficulty of breaking 13. If any of these clowns (sans Lomong) dip under 13:05, it will be a serious breakthrough.

Not sure Jager will do it this year, but if he focused on it, he would get it. Remember, he ran 13:14 in his debut race, barely losing to a well-raced and very fit True a few weeks ago. He also has the raw speed. Will be fun to watch him go sub-8:00 at some point to in the steeple.

Hungry Hippo wrote:

webby wrote:

Derrick next year.

I agree. Unless Lomong does it this year, which I am not sure he will, I don't think anyone new will go sub-13 until chasing PR's next year. And I think Derrick is gonna be the one to do it.

This is a good bet.

adsfasdf wrote:

I think 2 of the following guys will break 13 minutes in the 5k this year by the end of the summer:

Lomong

True

Derrick

Jager

Bumbalough

Lomong, maybe. But not for the others. It took Rupp two years to get from 13:07 down to 12:58. And that 13:07 came off the 27:10 earlier that season.

eric jenkins gets my vote

darkstar wrote:

You fools don't appreciate the difficulty of breaking 13. If any of these clowns (sans Lomong) dip under 13:05, it will be a serious breakthrough.

I've gotta agree. There are only six Americans who have gone sub-13, and that's over a 16-year span (Kennedy in 96 to Rupp in 12). In only one year in that span did two different people break 13 (Lagat and Solinsky in 10). It's hard to do.

Buffalo Orange wrote:

darkstar wrote:

You fools don't appreciate the difficulty of breaking 13. If any of these clowns (sans Lomong) dip under 13:05, it will be a serious breakthrough.

I've gotta agree. There are only six Americans who have gone sub-13, and that's over a 16-year span (Kennedy in 96 to Rupp in 12). In only one year in that span did two different people break 13 (Lagat and Solinsky in 10). It's hard to do.

Yeah, well, there were four real Americans (no need for Kenyan imports) who broke 13 in a four-year span: Ritz, Teg, Solinsky, and Rupp. I'd say that's the more relevant number now, considering it was the last four years. And with those four being only the early part of the wave of distance talent that has been coming up through the ranks all through the last 10+ years, there will be more to come. Derrick ought to do it, Fernandez if he can stay healthy, Jager if he runs some 5000 races, and some others have outside chances.

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

adsfasdf wrote:

I think 2 of the following guys will break 13 minutes in the 5k this year by the end of the summer:

Lomong

True

Derrick

Jager

Bumbalough

Cam Levins will break 13:00 before any of these guys.

He also has a better chance at a medal in 2016 than Galen "Slowest Silver Since the Seventies" Rupp.

Yeah, it's trivial to outkick the world record holder who had never lost a 10,000m, his younger brother, the whole nation of Kenya, etc. Not long ago every sensible person said that no white man would ever win a 10,000m medal again. How soon we forget.

darkstar wrote:You fools don't appreciate the difficulty of breaking 13. If any of these clowns (sans Lomong) dip under 13:05, it will be a serious breakthrough.

Finally someone who gets it! People have been throwing sub 13 around like it's an easy task.

Haymitch Abernathy wrote:

Yeah, well, there were four real Americans (no need for Kenyan imports) who broke 13 in a four-year span: Ritz, Teg, Solinsky, and Rupp. I'd say that's the more relevant number now, considering it was the last four years. And with those four being only the early part of the wave of distance talent that has been coming up through the ranks all through the last 10+ years, there will be more to come. Derrick ought to do it, Fernandez if he can stay healthy, Jager if he runs some 5000 races, and some others have outside chances.

This is the stupidest thing I've ever heard. The only one you named who has the potential to someday break 13 is Derrick(even then it won't be for another few years). Jager will be lucky if he runs 13:05 and Fernandez will be lucky if he can break 13:20. No one else besides Lagat, Rupp, and possibly Lomong will do it within the next few years.

Fernandez, who ran 13:25 as an 18-year-old, will be lucky to break 13:20? Now that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Apart from every other word out of Effie Trinket's mouth, that is.

Haymitch Abernathy wrote:Fernandez, who ran 13:25 as an 18-year-old, will be lucky to break 13:20? Now that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Apart from every other word out of Effie Trinket's mouth, that is.

He ran a 3:53 1500m at Oxy so yeah... Not hating on him since I am one of his biggest fans and hope he does well, but he's inconsistent and is injured too often.

adsfasdf wrote:

I think 2 of the following guys will break 13 minutes in the 5k this year by the end of the summer:

Lomong

True

Derrick

Jager

Bumbalough

Lomong - I'd almost be surprised if he doesn't break 13 this year.

True - Almost no chance.

Derrick - Reasonable chance, but he'll probably miss it by 5 seconds or so.

Jager - Almost no chance.

Bumbalough - Less chance than True or Jager.