I am looking for some input on what my target race pace should be for my upcoming half marathon. Based on some past races, and level of training, where should I target my next half marathon.
I'm new to the board. I've read other threads occasionally when doing running related searches.
I am running a half marathon this upcoming weekend and am struggling in my mind to determine what my target pace should be.
I started running just over a year ago. I was out of shape, but had a bit of running experience. Mostly as a result of cross training for other sports. I ran this same 1/2 marathon a year ago in 1h42m. By last fall I ran a 1/2 marathon with my daughter in the stroller in 1h28m30s. Since I started running I've built up from 15miles per week to as much as 70m this winter and spring. I ran a 25k, very hill race, in 1h45m after a 100km week of training. I ran a fairly flat (but windy) 10k in 38m09s after a 112km week of training. (My running weeks are Sunday to Sat, and then I ran these races the next day on a Sunday. So I was not fresh.) I've built up to 8 miles under 6m29s/mile mid-week tempo work. Also, I've built up to 15 miles under 6m59s/mile mid-week longer tempo run. My longest run was 24 miles this winter. I do other speed work out too. A few examples are - 2x12x400m with 30s rest all under 5m59s/mile; 2x12x200m with 1m45s rest all under 4m59s; 12x800m w/2 min rest all under 5m59s/mile.
Based on the above, where should I target my 1/2 marathon this weekend? I don't want to go out too hard and blow up, but I don't want to cheat myself by not going out hard enough. (The race is fairly level, and then gets hilly in miles 7 to 12.)
I hope this wasn't too long winded!