M.C. Confusing wrote:
GlobalView wrote:Point taken, but if he is indeed 17, then maybe my assertion has some "legs" (PI)?
But even if he is 17, there is no reason to assume a "logical progression". There are an awful lot of East Africans that appear on the scene as Juniors and just never develop past that. Sammy Kipketer, for example ran 12:54 as a junior. Got all the way down to 12:52 during the rest of his career. Choge Augustine Kiprono ran 12:52 as an 18 year old. He hasnt broken 13 minutes since he turned 20 in 2007...
Good points here and from earlier posters questioning birth dates. Yes, many of these East African "wunderkinds" haven't gone on to further improvement, it's true, and that probably is a testament to phoney birth dates. And some athletes peak earlier than others, no question.
But what is also true is that many of these athletes, regardless of their exact age, have limited formal training, and thus great potential. What they really need after bursting on the scene is a solid coach and training stable, as was the case with Kim MacDonald in Teddingdon, London in the late '90s, early millenium. Unfortunately, this doesn't always materialize, and maybe that explains the overall "spotty" careers of precocious young runners like Mossima, Choge, Asbel Kiprop, Isaiah Koech, etc.
My contention that the "sub-2:00 formula" hasn't happened yet, and that is: young, undertrained runner with solid times over 10k and/or HM + good coach (with a long-term plan of creating a top marathoner) and training group for the next 10 years = chance at sub-2.