Predict the next Brian Sell . . . or are those days over in the US?

Brian Sell is the man. Nate Jenkins similar story. You have to be a hard dude to basically take 12-15 years and knock out 150 mpw and see where it takes you.

London was terrible for Americans like you said.

Hall was injured for 6 months leading up to it and went anyway. Dropping out at 10 miles/50 minutes into the race doesn't mean he had a bad day, it means he shouldn't have even started the race.

Abdi dropping isn't surprising considering he came out of left field to qualify for the team and who he was training with at the time.

Abdi trained with two guys leading up to his trials qualifier and BOTH were busted and banned for EPO use the same year. Use your brain on that one.

Meb is Meb and is the most consistent marathon runner the US has.

I'd rather see Athens: 2nd Meb 2:11:29, 12th Culp 2:15:26, 65th Browne 2:27:18 (with 12th in the 10,000, 28:14) or 9th Ritz 2:11:59, 10th Hall 2:12:33, 22nd Sell 2:16:07, than 4th Meb 2:11:06, Hall DNF, Abdi DNF. Culpepper could have finished top 10 if he managed his tactics better, because he kicked down something like 5 guys in the stadium alone. Poor Dan Browne had calf cramps after running the 10000m, so he was not destined to finish strong that day. But without Meb last year showing his class, the last Olympics was a major bust.

Japan just saw the next Kawauchi surface, a full-time-working guy named Sho Matsumoto who ran a 2:19 PR in October, a 2:18 PR in December, a 2:21 training run effort at the end of January, then a 2:13:38 PR yesterday. If people like that can pop up then there's no telling who might appear in the U.S.

To even make the US team now you better be connected with someone who can diagnose you with ethical pharmaceuticals and other treatments as soon as you need them. I don't mean this as a crack against a certain team on the west coast, but those guys have people monitoring their every physical attribute and applying remedies right away. Blue collar dudes without all that support don't stand much of a chance.

Brett in Tokyo wrote:

Japan just saw the next Kawauchi surface, a full-time-working guy named Sho Matsumoto who ran a 2:19 PR in October, a 2:18 PR in December, a 2:21 training run effort at the end of January, then a 2:13:38 PR yesterday. If people like that can pop up then there's no telling who might appear in the U.S.

Is the key to quick success to run a marathon almost every month? We point out guys like Wardian here and say if only they didn't race so much and peak for one race, imagine where they'd be. But these Japanese runners. Or maybe so many of them are racing marathons so frequently and we only hear about the small number who succeed?

oh boyo wrote:

I'd rather see Athens: 2nd Meb 2:11:29, 12th Culp 2:15:26, 65th Browne 2:27:18 (with 12th in the 10,000, 28:14) or 9th Ritz 2:11:59, 10th Hall 2:12:33, 22nd Sell 2:16:07, than 4th Meb 2:11:06, Hall DNF, Abdi DNF. Culpepper could have finished top 10 if he managed his tactics better, because he kicked down something like 5 guys in the stadium alone. Poor Dan Browne had calf cramps after running the 10000m, so he was not destined to finish strong that day. But without Meb last year showing his class, the last Olympics was a major bust.

It's a shame the US didn't send a women's team to any of these Olympics.

Predict the next mediocre runner who hypes himself endlessly on message boards?

I'm sure we'll see a few more of those.

Koneko wrote:

Predict the next mediocre runner who hypes himself endlessly on message boards?

I'm sure we'll see a few more of those.

A cheap shot both undeserved and inaccurate.

You can't argue that a guy with those type of HS times to do ANYTHING post collegiate is rare.

crawl back into your hole.

Aaron Braun, Scott Bauhs, Jake Riley, and Cam Levins can be compared to Sell I think. In terms of being underdogs, blue collar, etc.

US distance running has progressed since Sell. He would not be on Olympic teams now. Cam might be considered the Canadian Sell as I think he only ran 4:18 in high school. Sell did well on a national level but he was not at the level where he was competing to be one of the best in the world.

He did finish 22nd at Beijing, remember, 12-13 spots behind Ritz and Hall, who were supposedly "competing to be one of the best in the world." That's pretty darn solid. How has our team progressed since Sell then? Only Meb has truly competed to be "one of the best in the world" at the Olympics over the last 3 cycles.

You can't predict that because if they are good enough to be known they aint Brian Sell.

What about the Jimmy Grabow-types... dropping a 2:12 at the Trials out of nowhere. We need to support these guys or at least provide directin.

Actually doesn't seem like the marathon has progressed in the us as much as other distance events. Sell's 2:10 pr would have been the sixth best performance and the fifth best performer in 2012.

Yeah the US marathon really is not all that great right now but I still do not think that someone of his caliber would have made the team to London. On the international level the marathon is way more competitive now than it was then. Sell level guys are way back in major marathons. Look at Ritz he ran a 2:07 and was only 9th place in Chicago. A guy got 5th place in Dubai with a 2:04. Sell was very good but I have a feeling that it is only a matter of time before the US catches up. Guys like Derrick, Rupp and Puskedra are the future of the US marathon. Not exactly no names in high school.

Tim Ritchie. Nuf said.

But we need a deep amount of 2:11 and 2:10 guys to push the standouts like Ritz from being okay running 2:10 to becoming set on winning Chicago or any other Marathon he races. The days of the GBTC brought 10 guys that could all run 2:15 or better at Boston which made the likes of Bill Rodgers win that marathon 4 years in a row.

We can't just have 2 guys with a PR of 2:11 and the rest following them along happily in the 2:13-2:15 range. It’s crazy to think that with all these amazing American men coming out of college with times well under 14:00 in the 5k, that we cannot develop them into 2:10 marathoners. Do we really not have that many dedicated guys that want to live a poor life and pursue the thought of finishing 5th at the trials? I think once we get more guys pounding the pavement, we’ll see a huge change of events, and that will more likely start at the 2016 trials. The half marathon standard is a great way to introduce the marathon to these young and talented Americans that have a dream!

even if i had the talent, that wouldn't sound attractive to me... if you told me i had to forgo a career and income at the hope of finishing 5th in the trials for no money, i don't think i would be very interested. would you?

OnePieceToe wrote:

Do we really not have that many dedicated guys that want to live a poor life and pursue the thought of finishing 5th at the trials?

What were Cam Levins' high school PRs? Is it true he was like a 16:50 guy? If so there's your answer.