Will Rupp peak later than most elite runners...

Positive Contributions wrote:

I meant top 10 runners at the distance. He is getting close to that. I think 26:40 gets him there in the 10000. I think some people are being pretty aggressive when they say 26:30 will happen. That puts him in the top 5, I think.

26:30 seems a little crazy in the grand scheme of things, but consider that Rupp's 5,000 PR was only 13:06 when he ran 26:48. Now, maybe he was in better 5,000 shape than that, but that's what he had put up in Europe. Last year, when Rupp ran 12:58 in Eugene training through the meet, Salazar said his guys were in 12:50 shape, and that was probably accurate, given that many of the Africans in that race ran in the 12:46-12:50 range in Europe. Rupp, while having great range, is not a 1,500/3,000 specialist, and while he may throw down an awesome 3000 this year, his real bread and buter seems to be the 10,000. So, if he was "hypothetically" in sub-12:50 shape last year when he won the silver in the 10,000, and he is fitter and faster this year, imagine what he can do if he is capable of a sub-12:45. I don't think 26:30 is unrealistic at all if he finds the right race with good pacing.

Yup yup. Official prediction for Rupp's career bests:

1500- who cares

5000- 12:43

10000- 26:28

Half- 58:55

Marathon- 2:04:47

How did I come up with this? Complete guess.

Well, if you want to go down the road of hypothetical perfect race conditions, then yeah Rupp can do better than 26:30. If you want to deal with what he can realistically run I will stick with the low 26:30s. I saw Bekele's 26:25 in Eugene. He ran about the entire 2nd half of the race by himself. It was so fast I had to keep reminding myself that Bekele wasn't running a 5000M. Indeed, I think his 5000M split was one of the all time fastest 5000M ever run at Hayward field at the time. I think he kept fairly even pacing. The bottom line is that Rupp is still a long ways away from that kind of performance.

ventolin^3 wrote:

i've seen all the 26'30 - 26'40 races apart from dinkessa's one where he finished 2nd in 26'30

believe me, 26'30 is no great barrier

most of those guys were worth well below 26'30 at even pace

kemboi went 26'30 & shouda gone 26'22.5 - 26'25 if they had kept the pace up in last coupla kms but geb in front got scared & slowed it into a tactical last-lap affair

don't think about barriers too much in 10k

far, far more important is getting even pace - it can mean a 26'40 actual being more like a 26'30 intrinsic

rupp just needs to get into a metronomic rhythm & he will have a great shot at 26'30 this year

i believe that 26'25 was on a windy day, so he was certainly worth much faster than 26'25

& a classic 10k wr attempt is usually solo for last 5k

rupp maybe a long way from a near-26'20 run, but he has absolutely no reason not to run at worst a 26'30 this year

like i said i've seen virtually all the 26'30 - 26'40 runs & got idea of their talent/ability

rupp is in no way inferior, talent or ability wise to any of those guys with exception of kemboi

Sagarin wrote:imagine what he can do if he is capable of a sub-12:45. I don't think 26:30 is unrealistic at all if he finds the right race with good pacing.

the ballpark expectation is

10k = 2*5k + 1'00

if you give him 12'45, then 26'30 is the correlation...

How much you wanna bet Rupp guns for Alan Webb's mile American Record just by happenstance?