Rupp = yawn; not interested; boring...zzzzzz.
Rupp = yawn; not interested; boring...zzzzzz.
Okay, so what do you think Rupp can run for all distances in his career if he's going to run faster than 3:32?
And where in the world would Bekele or you think he could break the WR over 1,500? What indicates any faster than 3:32?
rupp might go 26:35
tops
complete nonsense about bekele breaking 1500 record
I appreciate everyone's input. I guess what I'm wondering is: (1) What causes a distance runner to peak - it seems to be some combination of age, wear and tear, miles run, and perhaps other factors; and (2) Might Salazar be significantly and uniquely holding at bay many of these factors insofar as they relate to Rupp (such that Rupp peaks in his early 30's for example)?
Thank you for any thoughts.
Mrr82 wrote:Most wouldn't be surprised with a 3:31 if his season pans out, or faster
you're being ungenerous
he's in 3'31 shape right now
Mrr82 wrote:Bekele believed he could break the 1500 world record. Nobody believes he was a 3:32 guy. Not a valid point.
kennster has spouted some hogwash in his time ( claimed 49 speed when hicham himself reckoned that was his own best, although hicham's manger reckoned more like 48 )
at his 5k/10k peak i reckon he couda gone
mid/high-3'30
if he'd trained exclusively for 1500 in those years, i wouda gone for about
high-3'28/low-3'29
( that maya been fraction generous )
no way close to 3'26 though
ventolin^ wrote:
kennster has spouted some hogwash in his time ( claimed 49 speed when hicham himself reckoned that was his own best, although hicham's manger reckoned more like 48 )
at his 5k/10k peak i reckon he couda gone
I wouldn't say he spouted hogwash. The guy had his fiance die and pittered around for a few years after his WR years (in comparison at least) and never followed up 2005 with the times he could have done and wanted to in the "off year" despite still doing very well. 2006 was the year he was hoping to break that WR. Bekele never entered a 1500 that went sub 3:30. In that year he ran 3:32, he was right there until the end and probably would have kept up a faster pace if there was one. The race was also at the season's very end almost Oct, a month past his peak presumably at the WC's. So it's unlilely 3:32 was even his best ability in that non-peak fitness year. Move that race up a month, give it a 3:29 pace, and he would have gone 3:30 high that year, let alone in 04/05. He was obviously not a 1500 guy, but he would have kept up with almost any pace until the kick even in those lesser years. I respect your opinion, i just think based on the information and when he ran those races (time of year and years) and how, it showed he could have done better than you're suggesting.
ventolin^ wrote:
Mrr82 wrote:Most wouldn't be surprised with a 3:31 if his season pans out, or fasteryou're being ungenerous
he's in 3'31 shape right now
Wrong, its 3.32
kennster was as at ~ wr shape in '07 but didn't get the right 5 or 10k races
he set a 7'25pb that year, which is telling ( & was worth helluva lot quicker than 7'25 - very slow pacing )
his 3'32pb race wouda been close to 3'31-flat at even pace - & he lost it pretty solidly to komen2, so no lack of effort
he woudn't have gone more than tenths faster at 1500 in '04 or '05 & even if he had actually set wrs at 5 or 10k after '05, his concurrent 1500 woud still not been likely to have broken 3'30
bottom line :
he was never going to break 3'30 as a 5k/10k guy - it wouda needed full career shift to 1500 to do it & then not by much
he is not even close to his peak. In 3 years he can go
3:32/3:49/12:35/26:15.
yyy wrote:
he is not even close to his peak. In 3 years he can go
3:32/3:49/12:35/26:15.
I think it's very possible that he ends his career with those exact PRs. As I said, he's going to improve his strength a lot in the coming years and get way faster than 12:58/26:48 (most people would agree he was much faster than those numbers even last season.)
And to Mr82, I can now see your point about Bekele; his 3:32 was poorly paced (54/1:52 I believe--insane, way too fast.) I still don't believe Rupp is going to get much better than he is at 1 mile right now, but as you say there's no reason to put limits on times, and he's gotten faster each year so we'll see.
you're prob trolling but wr's are out of the question
Why? Why put limits on him? I'm sure just 60 years ago when the record was 29 minutes no one would ever think sub 27 was humanly possible, let alone 26:17. Rupp is an extradordinary runner with revolutionary training methods. I wouldn't put WRs past him.
Offcourse he will 'peak' later. Come on, folks all athletes are PED users, lets not pretend ours is not
Top 10 times or top 10 runners? His sub 26:50 already puts him on a very narrow list of people who have accomplished that. If he is not in the top on that list now I think it would be if he ran 26:40. And that is realistic. But yeah, as far as approaching Bekele's 26:17, that seems a little far fetched at this point.
Positive Contributions wrote:
If Rupp gets into top 10 all time in any distance it would be an incredible accomplishment. He is nowhere near world records. But, if he gets to 12:50 or 26:40, he will have passed a lot of greats. He may be in a position to medal this year. I would like to see him try some half marathons before 2016. I think he may be able to get into low 59s.
Despite relatively "modest" training, I think Rupp is coming into his peak form right now and it will last from 1-2 years, maybe 3 tops. I can see him going 26:30 +/- 3 seconds in the 10,000 (I'll take the sub 26:30) this year and obliterating his 5,000 PR as well, as he was probably in 12:48 shape last year. Salazar might be saying track until 2016, and maybe father time closes in on Rupp slower than most, but the year he doesn't improve his track PRs is the year he goes to the marathon. But, really, nothing would surprise me with this kid, ultimately. I do think this is Ritz's last good year on the track, and he may get a 10,000 PR as well as a marathon PR, but then he's just trying to maintain through 2016. Man, I can't believe Ritz is 30.
However, Ritz is smart doing only one marathon per year. It should extend his longevity.
ryan foreman wrote:
Top 10 times or top 10 runners? His sub 26:50 already puts him on a very narrow list of people who have accomplished that. If he is not in the top on that list now I think it would be if he ran 26:40. And that is realistic.
But yeah, as far as approaching Bekele's 26:17, that seems a little far fetched at this point.
Positive Contributions wrote:If Rupp gets into top 10 all time in any distance it would be an incredible accomplishment. He is nowhere near world records. But, if he gets to 12:50 or 26:40, he will have passed a lot of greats. He may be in a position to medal this year. I would like to see him try some half marathons before 2016. I think he may be able to get into low 59s.
I meant top 10 runners at the distance. He is getting close to that. I think 26:40 gets him there in the 10000. I think some people are being pretty aggressive when they say 26:30 will happen. That puts him in the top 5, I think.
I should say I meant Rupp can get down into the low 26:30s. But ever getting below 26:30 is very doubtful.
Here is the list:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10,000_metres#Men
I think its possible for Rupp to move past Micah Kogo for 6th on the all time list.