Sad time for investors

You and I and every single person who frequents these boards and has any financial sense whatsoever all know that he is a liar about his "returns". This has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt many times before. So, I guess if you feel like calling him out one more time, knowing that he will always refuse to produce a scintilla of evidence for his returns while continuing the lies that is up to you. Just don't expect anything different from him because I can guarantee you will not get it.

Here is the unfortunate truth wrote:

You and I and every single person who frequents these boards and has any financial sense whatsoever all know that he is a liar about his "returns". This has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt many times before. So, I guess if you feel like calling him out one more time, knowing that he will always refuse to produce a scintilla of evidence for his returns while continuing the lies that is up to you. Just don't expect anything different from him because I can guarantee you will not get it.

In the interests of others who might not know this, I continue to point out the improbability of these returns. It would be unfortunate for people to invest believing they can expect similar returns, and forego saving the required amounts.

agip,Don't you question my returns brother :) ...it's all true and real.Here are SOME of my holdings and what they did in 2012:Artisan Mid Cap Fund - 19.52%Fidelity® Diversified International - 19.41%Fidelity® Small Cap Discovery - 24.03%Fidelity® Contrafund - 16.40% (that one's a stinker!)Fidelity® Dividend Growth Fund - 18.88%VEXMX - 18.31%NAESX - 18.04%VWELX - 12.57% (another stinker!)VWNFX - 16.72% (yet another stinker!)I have a bond fund that did much worse than the above, but mostly my stock funds were all within the range seen above, and my BIGGEST percentage (just by a little though) fund was the Artisan Mid Cap Fund which brought over 19%.As of this morning, I am up 3.5% YTD, BEHIND the Dow which is at 4.39% right now (though that includes today's up trend so far, and my stuff is calculated at day's end; I'll still be behind by a little bit though).

agip wrote:

Off the Grid wrote:

so you have lots of funds (so some duds in there too), you won't say how you made 18%, and yet you insist that you do in fact outperform all benchmarks every year.

Your 18% and your strategy would imply that all asset markets rose 18% last year....sure....

I too question Flagpole's reporting of returns, but fact is, last year many indices were up 17+%.

Vanguard total world index: +17%

VG Total US stock market: +16%

US small caps: +18%

US midcaps: +16%

REITS: +18%

Int'l REITS: +42%

Emerging markets: ++19%

And so on. I can easily see an all stock portfolio making 18% in 2012.

Any bonds would have brought that down significantly of course.

Here is the unfortunate truth wrote:

You and I and every single person who frequents these boards and has any financial sense whatsoever all know that he is a liar about his "returns". This has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt many times before.

INCORRECT! Never proven once...could not have been because my returns are real.

Here is the unfortunate truth wrote:

You and I and every single person who frequents these boards and has any financial sense whatsoever all know that he is a liar about his "returns". This has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt many times before.

Flagpole wrote:

INCORRECT! Never proven once...could not have been because my returns are real.

so prove it. put up Tickers * % held. Very simple.

For the poster who recommended asking a financial advisor to pay himself based on a particular benchmark...that's how I track my own performance.

I set my benchmark as 60% SP500, 30% bond fund earning 4% annually, and 10 % cash. End of each quarter I plug in my actual numbers and it presents me with my performance versus benchmark. I lag the benchmark when markets run up significantly in a quarter. I far outperform when markets fall significantly. In modest quarters I almost always outperform the benchmark to a small degree based on a lot of solid yields, and hand picking the best companies from the SP500 instead of using the index fund.

If I were in the business, I would do pretty well under that payment structure. All I need now is somebody with several million willing to trust me:)

Lighten up Francis wrote:

If I were in the business, I would do pretty well under that payment structure. All I need now is somebody with several million willing to trust me:)

I've got several million. And I trust you WAY more than I trust old Flaggy...

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...but still not nearly enough to hand over my money to you.

Dude, I just gave you a lot of them (and those are the bulk of the percentage held too even though I have a lot more funds). Even if I did post them and you did the math (seems a bit obsessive), wouldn't you just say I made those up? And, since I COULD just make it up, why even ask me to do so?Believe it when I tell you, brother, I've got nothing to prove to you; shame on me if I did.

Off the Grid wrote:

Here is the unfortunate truth wrote:

You and I and every single person who frequents these boards and has any financial sense whatsoever all know that he is a liar about his "returns". This has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt many times before.

Flagpole wrote:

INCORRECT! Never proven once...could not have been because my returns are real.

so prove it. put up Tickers * % held. Very simple.

Off the Grid wrote:

In the interests of others who might not know this, I continue to point out the improbability of these returns. It would be unfortunate for people to invest believing they can expect similar returns, and forego saving the required amounts.

Why is 18% so hard to believe from the 2012-2013 year.

My target retirement fund was up 17% last year after expenses. I don't think 18% is that far off.

Am I missing something here?

That's fine by me brother, because I'm not out to make money for any of you. We all have our own risk tolerances, and I invest to stay within mine.When I started investing in 1989 at age 23, other than those who said NOT to invest at all (they were still smarting from 1987), I was told to plan on 6% annual return going forward until I retired. Well, I've done just over 11% annually since then. Since 2009, I've been told to plan on 5-6% annual return going forward. Since then I've averaged just over 19% annually (buoyed by a BIG 2009). When will the 6% returns begin? Fine by me if it's today; I will do well with that gain in the next 13+ years before I retire. If it's much better, I may retire earlier.I'm sure people here will say if I did this or I did that, I would have earned twice what I did...well, ok...good for you if you did that. I'll take a career's worth of 11% annual return any day.

George or something wrote:

Lighten up Francis wrote:

If I were in the business, I would do pretty well under that payment structure. All I need now is somebody with several million willing to trust me:)

I've got several million. And I trust you WAY more than I trust old Flaggy...

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...but still not nearly enough to hand over my money to you.

My 401K funds +11.98% in the last 12 months, +8.91% since 2010.

It's NOT far off at all! In fact it's not even off. I even have 13% bonds and still did 18%. Most of the really popular funds killed it in 2012, and I own most of them.

hmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:

Off the Grid wrote:

In the interests of others who might not know this, I continue to point out the improbability of these returns. It would be unfortunate for people to invest believing they can expect similar returns, and forego saving the required amounts.

Why is 18% so hard to believe from the 2012-2013 year.

My target retirement fund was up 17% last year after expenses. I don't think 18% is that far off.

Am I missing something here?

S&P500 return w/ dividends compounded since 1989 7.4% pa. S&P small cap index +11.0% in that same period. Emerging Markets '95-'12 8.1%

This is all with dividends reinvested.

so what is your source of alpha that you can AVERAGE a return that beats the riskiest equity benchmarks available, while by your own admission holding bonds?

If you are going to make these audacious claims, at least have the numbers to back them up. And if you can do it...why can't others? Why are you the ONLY one I have ever read about to do this? the smartest, hardest working fund managers in the world cannot do what you do. Why? Are you claiming that an entire industry is not as shrewd and thoughtful as you? The very fund managers you give your money to are in fact not as smart as you? how can that be?

Show me five mutual funds that have returned 11%/yr without being overly concentrated in a single sector or in small caps.

Might want to look at what you're invested in. Lots of bonds? Conservative funds? Even so, basically 12% is nothing to sneeze at (I'm happy with any year over 8%), and 8.91% that includes a lukewarm 2011 isn't horrible.Like I said earlier, the 18% I made in 2012 is probably better than the average (at least in my own sampling on a financial message board), but again, to be fair, many of those people are in retirement or close to it and have more conservative investments than I do.

Toby Jugs wrote:

My 401K funds +11.98% in the last 12 months, +8.91% since 2010.

And yet another thread becomes all about Flagpole.

I honestly thought that the guy had learned from the Flagpole "appreciation" thread several weeks ago.

Obviously not.

First of all, I've only owned ANY bonds at all since age 35, so 12 years of investing before that all through the 90s with NO bonds at all and then I've slowly added bonds to get to the 13% where I am now.Second of all, why should I do the work for you, brother? I DID though.Thirdly, why no small caps? I've held those. Why not specific sectors? I've had energy funds. I rebuke that criteria as it is silly to exclude them; they are for purchase are they not?Fourthly, boo-ya! (since inception):Artisan midcap - 13.52%Fidelity Contrafund K - 12.12%Fidelity Equity Income - 11.36%Small-Cap Value Index Admiral - 23.68%Small-Cap Growth Index Admiral - 20.91%VMVAX - 20.73%VGHCX - 16.54%VGENX - 12.34%VGSLX - 11.38%VWIGX - 10.79% (close, but very close to 11%)Then there are funds that have inception dates that started since 2009, and I own some of those now, and their rates are ALL above 11%, some WELL above...and I didn't include MOST of those. And several other funds that are above 10%.Dude, you are wrong about me being the only one. There are people here who have said they've had returns as good or about as good as mine. In this thread even a dude said he got 17% in 2012. Who is it that you are talking to?You know it is EASY to see 10 year and since inception returns and so on for mutual funds. Go to vanguard.com or 401k.com (Fidelity's site) and look at the funds.Do you have funds with low fees like Vanguard and Fidelity? They really are THE BEST in the business.

Haven't we been here before wrote:

And yet another thread becomes all about Flagpole.

I honestly thought that the guy had learned from the Flagpole "appreciation" thread several weeks ago.

Obviously not.

It's not FP's fault - people ask him many questions and accuse him of s%^&*.

More interestingly, here is an article with some charts on why it is a myth saying the weak returns of the SPX for 13 years means buy and hold has failed:

Midcaps up 190%, spx up just 40% since around 1996. And I'm not sure that includes dividends.

Flagpole,

Sorry to jump into this discussion, but you seem to always be preaching crazy diversification (even with many mutual funds). I have about $15K that I was going to put into a Vanguard mutual fund. Should I instead divide that into seperate mutual funds? Also, I only have enough after my 401K to deposit $100 every two weeks. Should I split that into each fund as well?

agip wrote:

Midcaps up 190%, spx up just 40% since around 1996. And I'm not sure that includes dividends.

Midcap - 7.4%/yr in that range...still not close to 11%/yr....