rekrunner wrote:
Shobukhova was sanctioned with an abnormal blood profile.
Correct. Paula had an abnormal blood profile too, actually at least three times her off-scores were suspicious/indicative of likely doping by today's standards.
After the second time (2005) that we know of, she never broke 2:23 again. At the same time, the EPO tests become somewhat reliable... Likely a coincidence, right rekrunner?
The last time (2012), IAAF tasked an unnamed expert with the formal evaluation, whether Paula's excuse for that was plausible.
Said expert said no, triggering the three person panel. Of that, at least one of them (Saugy?!) said yes, that explanation (altitude stay despite normal ret-%*) may be plausible, so she was let off the hook. Or at least that is the official version, for she retired literally directly after that.
Ashenden and Parisotto placed that into the "likely doping" category too.
* If you are interested in the details: we know that Hb goes up after altitude stay, typically 0.5 - 1.0 g/dl in such a case (although much less according to Canova), and ret-% goes down accordingly. From Paula's history, we know that twice she had an Hb of about 15.6 g/dl and ret-% = 0.44 after altitude and "severe dehydration", so the 16.1 and 0.77 is practically not possible for her (should have been around 15.0 and 0.44 without dehydration; or if for a strange reason 16.1 were possible, she should have had ret-%