I was looking through Bill Rodgers career times and was thinking how these would look to us if a modern American runner, starting in 2013, ran these times now. So here's a hypothetical run down of a future marathoner running the exact same times that Rodgers did, and how we would possibly react to them.
He starts his career with a DNF at the 2013 Boston Marathon. Then his first finish is a 2:28:12 at the Bay State Marathon. Starting his career with a DNF then only a 2:28 puts him solidly in the fast, but still recreational category.
The next year in 2014 he runs 2:19:34 at Boston. That's a pretty good time that surprises a lot of people but he's still considered to be a sub-elite marathoner, one of those guys who will be good but never great. He gets a small sponsorship but no expectations of a greater contract. The rest of 2014 sees him running a 2:36 at NYC and a 2:21:57 at Philadelphia. The running world confirms that the Boston performance must have been a fluke.
In 2015 he comes out of nowhere and runs Boston in 2:09:55. Now everybody wants to know how he did it. What's his training like? Is he on drugs? What could he run if he got a real coach? Some still think it's another fluke. He DNFs his next marathon and negative rumors abound. Some say his training was too much and he's done for good. Later on in 2015 he runs 2:11:26 and everybody is back on the bandwagon, although some say he'll obviously never break 2:10 again.
At the 2016 Trials he runs 2:11:58, good enough to make the team. But at the Olympics he breaks down in the later stages of the race and runs a disappointing 2:25:14. There's a lot of talk that he needs a coaching change. Later in 2016 he runs 2:10:10 at NYC. The coaching change talk ceases but people still say he'll never break 2:10 again. He follows that up with a 2:08:23 in Japan but the naysayers focus on the slightly short course instead of his incredible 20 minute improvement in just a couple years. He finishes out 2016 with a 2:14:28 at a small marathon in Maryland. There's some talk that he's racing too much.
He starts off 2017 with a win in Kyoto, Japan but his time of 2:14:25 fails to impress. He DNFs at Boston and the overracing chatter intensifies. He follows up the DNF with a 2:12:46 win in Amsterdam and a 2:25:12 win in Waynesboro, VA. People are really starting to question why he's racing so much and even his sponsor is a little worried. The worries subside after a 2:11:28 at NYC and a 2:10:55 at Fukuoka, but there's still talk of how he could run much faster times if he didn't race so much.
He gives in to the overracing talk and only runs three marathons in 2018: 2:10:13 at Boston, 2:12:12 at NYC, and 2:12:53 at Fukuoka. He's firmly planted himself as a top American marathoner but the 2:10 barrier still nags him and, of course, there's a lot of talk that a coaching change could get him past it.
But he sticks with his coach and runs 2:09:27 at the 2019 Boston Marathon. The elation of breaking 2:10 is followed with a disappointing 2:22:12 at Montreal and many make the observation that he's probably done. His 2:11:42 at NYC shuts them up.
Going into 2020 there's talk that the US will be boycotting the Olympics so he focuses on Boston where he runs 2:12:11. He finishes the year with a 2:14:47 in Toronto and a 2:13:20 at NYC. There was a lot of anticipation for what he could do at the Olympics but now there's talk that his career is on the decline.
In 2021 he decides to get back to heavier racing with five marathons: 2:12:10 at Houston, 2:10:34 at Boston, 2:14:13 in Rio, 2:13:28 in Stockholm, and a 2:17:34 in Columbus, OH. The last race leaves everyone scratching their heads as to why he doesn't cut down his schedule and focus on just a couple races, especially after coming so close to breaking 2:10 at Boston.
But he doesn't let up in 2022, again running five marathons: 2:14:51 at Houston, an awful 2:24 in Tokyo, 2:12:38 at Boston, a DNF in Rio, and a redeeming 2:11:08 in Melbourne. He finishes the year strong but the DNF in Rio and the terrible 301st place in Tokyo leaves a lot of people wondering what he's thinking.
He starts off 2023 with a 2:15:08 in Florida and a 2:11:58 at Boston. Finishing the year with a DNF in Beijing and a 2:21:40 in Chicago doesn't bode well for the coming Olympic year.
His only marathon in 2024, a 2:13:31 at the Olympic Trials, isn't good enough to make the team. Although it's acknowledged that 2:13 is still a stellar time, everyone agrees that his career is in decline. The message boards light up with things he could or should have done differently. Fewer races, less mileage, different coaches. But few of them remember that just a few years earlier, he was a DNF/2:28 nobody who took a chance and turned himself into a 2:08 contender.