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lawguy
Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/29/2012 9:40PM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Never started one of these threads, but thought I'd get some other people's thoughts on something. My top girl has always been a sprinter in track, but converted to distance this year. Ran 1917 this fall on a fast course which was a 1:15 PR over last year. She ran 58 flat in the 400 last year and 2:20 on 1/2/400 training. (I wasn't coaching her until this summer)

She's getting ready for an indoor meet at the end of december and will try to run a fast enough 16 to garner some scholarship interest. She took a few days off after XC and we are doing a 6 week build up to get ready and then she'll get a longer break before we start getting ready for outdoor. She has a really solid base from XC so I think she is ready to handle some faster stuff at this point.

So today she ran one of my favorite 1600 meter workouts and crushed it. Its a compound interval workout with sets of 200/400/200. 200s are at roughly 800 pace and the 4s at roughly 1600 pace. 30 secs rest between each interval and 3 minutes rest between sets. I had my top 3 boys run the workout with her to push her. They started at 35s on the 2s and 78 on the 4s for the first 3 sets. On the 4th set, they dropped the 4 to 75. 5th set the 2s were 34s and the 4 was 73. 2s stayed in the 33-34 range the rest of the way and the 4s went 73, 72, 68. Ended up being a total of 8 sets and she's the first high school kid I've had do more than 6 sets on their first time doing it. This workout has been a pretty solid indicator for my top guys in the past (I've coached a few sub 420 guys), but I've never had a girl at this level so I'm not sure if it will translate exactly the same way. Then again, I've never had a male distance runner with 49 mid to high speed which is roughly what I'd say a 58 flat would translate to. My thought would be that she has a good shot to run under 5:10 indoors next month and should be in position to break 5 outdoors if all goes well. Would love to get some other coach's thoughts on it. Thanks in advance.
Mr. Battery
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/29/2012 9:55PM - in reply to lawguy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
58 isn't even close to equal to 49.5. That's like a 51.

5:15 indoors.

5:00 outdoors.
lawguy
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/29/2012 10:01PM - in reply to Mr. Battery Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Mr. Battery wrote:

58 isn't even close to equal to 49.5. That's like a 51.

5:15 indoors.

5:00 outdoors.


Eh, you may be right, but the conversion tool I use has 58 flat being a 49.83. I have very little experience coaching girls so I'd definitely defer on that to someone who has more expertise.

Anyways, that sounds pretty much in line with what I was thinking time wise. She's never run a 1600 before though so you always have to wonder how an athlete will adapt to a new event from a mental standpoint.
the trailblazer
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/29/2012 11:46PM - in reply to lawguy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Um since its a girl maybe a 6:30 mile or slower?
Joe Piscopo
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 12:23AM - in reply to the trailblazer Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
That 68 looks promising..but her 19:XX 5K doesn't show great endurance to put together a solid mile...thus 5:10 is a realistic goal at this point.

What grade is she in?

With 33 second 200m repetition speed (which is VERY rare for a high school girl), she will be a sub-5 runner in the future for a big school if she sticks with it.
lawguy
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 3:48AM - in reply to Joe Piscopo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Joe Piscopo wrote:

That 68 looks promising..but her 19:XX 5K doesn't show great endurance to put together a solid mile...thus 5:10 is a realistic goal at this point.

What grade is she in?

With 33 second 200m repetition speed (which is VERY rare for a high school girl), she will be a sub-5 runner in the future for a big school if she sticks with it.


She's a senior which is why she's training to try and run a fast time in December before signing day. She only raced 6 times this fall and only twice on faster courses. (1937 and then 1917 were her first two sub 20s) With a couple more races on those or similar courses, I think 1845 would have been realistic.

We had a girl a few years ago that had PRs of 59 low and 1945 going into the winter of her senior year. Similar situation in that she had never run the 16 up to that point. She ended up running 212 and 459 that year. I didn't really train her until the last month or so of her outdoor season, but I feel like my current girl is much further ahead than this girl at this stage. Obviously that's no guarantee she runs the same times this spring, but I think its possible.

Given that my current girl has never run a 1600, what do you think of having her run a time trial 1.5-2 weeks before the goal race at the end of december? This race will be the only indoor race she runs unless we find a way to get her into a college race running unattached. I'm usually not big on TTs, but my thought here being that she needs to experience what its like to run a hard 16 before she actually tries to do it in a race.
162430
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 5:12AM - in reply to lawguy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I think that a TT would be a very good idea. It would be even better if you could get one of the guys on the team to pace her. It is always very helpful to have an idea of what to shoot for on race day (both mentally and from a pacing perspective).

The 19:17 is a bit slow compared to her track times. However, given that she ran those track times after 'only' going ~20:45 last XC season, I would say that 5:15 is a very realistic goal for that indoor race. Good luck!
Coach K
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 7:07AM - in reply to lawguy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I would not recommend a time trial. Those can backfire prior to races at a new distance. Since it sounds like you're downplaying the indoor season, this lone race is effectively a time trial. Given her speed, I would have her follow a "sit-and-kick" strategy, assuming the field includes some quality competition. That takes a lot of the pressure off a first-timer and hopefully puts her in position to use her speed FTW.

On a 200m track, I like her chances at 5:10 or better. Good luck.
&_(*NU&^
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 7:24AM - in reply to Coach K Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
My guess is that a time trial paced by a guy has too many potential problems. I would consider having her run a a few 1200m trials all alone as suggested in this thread.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=2146574&page=0

The first time with the 1200m you can try 83sec 400s,(say 5 weeks out at the start of a workout) then 81s and finally 79s about a week out from the race. This progression will give her lots of success and will help keep her from dreading the actual race.
lawguy
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 12:48PM - in reply to 162430 Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

162430 wrote:

I think that a TT would be a very good idea. It would be even better if you could get one of the guys on the team to pace her. It is always very helpful to have an idea of what to shoot for on race day (both mentally and from a pacing perspective).

The 19:17 is a bit slow compared to her track times. However, given that she ran those track times after 'only' going ~20:45 last XC season, I would say that 5:15 is a very realistic goal for that indoor race. Good luck!


If she runs a TT, she'll definitely have 2-3 boys running with her to pace her. Thanks for your input.
lawguy
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 12:53PM - in reply to Coach K Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Coach K wrote:

I would not recommend a time trial. Those can backfire prior to races at a new distance. Since it sounds like you're downplaying the indoor season, this lone race is effectively a time trial. Given her speed, I would have her follow a "sit-and-kick" strategy, assuming the field includes some quality competition. That takes a lot of the pressure off a first-timer and hopefully puts her in position to use her speed FTW.

On a 200m track, I like her chances at 5:10 or better. Good luck.


Part of the problem is that I'm afraid there may not be any good girls in the race and thus she may have to run it solo. Our high school decided not to let our team compete in indoor this year so that's why we aren't running the other state sanctioned meets. My thought about the TT being that if she could run a 5:10-5:15 with my guys, she will have a better shot of being able to push herself to a similar time by herself. Obviously the counter to that is if the TT goes poorly, it kills her confidence. If this race goes really well, I might consider sending her to a big out of state meet to take another shot at fast time. Its unfortunate to have to approach it from this standpoint, but since she has no distance track times, we are doing this solely to try and get her some scholarship money. If it wasn't for that, I'd have her doing base work all winter like the rest of my kids who are just focusing on outdoors. Thanks a lot of your input.
justathought
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 1:37PM - in reply to lawguy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Using the phrase "top girl" makes you sound like a pimp.
Audax
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 1:58PM - in reply to lawguy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Since it sounds like it's a meet over Christmas, I'm betting there will probably be 1-2 other solid runners opening up their seasons so you should get a good race. I'm in agreement with Coach K that she looks good for sub 5:10. I'd make sure she's doing a tempo or cruise intervals with a sub-5:10 pace in mind in addition to the Speed Endurance, as that will help too. Keep us in the loop after the race.
lawguy
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 6:15PM - in reply to Audax Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Audax wrote:

Since it sounds like it's a meet over Christmas, I'm betting there will probably be 1-2 other solid runners opening up their seasons so you should get a good race. I'm in agreement with Coach K that she looks good for sub 5:10. I'd make sure she's doing a tempo or cruise intervals with a sub-5:10 pace in mind in addition to the Speed Endurance, as that will help too. Keep us in the loop after the race.


She's done 4 workouts thus far (2 last week, 2 this week) and we've started two of those with a fast 1.5 mile tempo. She's also doing a long run on saturdays that will finish up at or close to tempo pace for the last 2 miles so I'm definitely trying to keep plenty of cardio work going as we work on race pace stuff. Thanks a lot for your input.
lawguy
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 6:16PM - in reply to justathought Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

justathought wrote:

Using the phrase "top girl" makes you sound like a pimp.


Ha...definitely spit out my drink when I read this post.
BRRRRR
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 8:01PM - in reply to lawguy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Another great workout for her to try is referenced in my thread. http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4927516 - / 8x400 (60 second rest)

This might be an nice alternative to a 1200m TT.

I'm trying my first mile race and did the 8x400 for a 73.6 average. Get her moving at 75-76 and she'll be in the ball park of sub-5:10.
randomcoach
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 11/30/2012 11:03PM - in reply to BRRRRR Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I like to use a workout which I've found is a pretty good predictor for HS girls, but only approaching a big meet.

Take a 1500m time you want your girl to run in a fast race, and divide it by 4. Suppose you want her to run a 4:40 1500m, then the target 400m time is 1:10. She should be able to run 4x400m w/ 3min, 2min, 1min rest. It will be hard and lactic inducing, but not quite maximal.
ventolin^3
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 12/1/2012 1:41AM - in reply to lawguy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

lawguy wrote:My top girl has always been a sprinter in track, but converted to distance this year. Ran 1917 this fall on a fast course which was a 1:15 PR over last year. She ran 58 flat in the 400 last year and 2:20 on 1/2/400 training. (I wasn't coaching her until this summer)


can't help much as i can only offer estimates based on what you think her best current 400/800 ability is

last year she went 58/2'20 but not really off proper endurance training

58.0 / 2'20 ->

5'03.4 , 5'28.0 , 5'30.4 , 21'11.6

but this is way off currently as you say she ran 19'17 for 5k ( x-c )

for argument's sake, lets say she's improved her track 5k to maybe 19'00 & still got say 57 - 58 speed

for outdoors,

57 - 58 / 19'00 ->

2'12.8 - 2'14.3
4'40.9 - 4'42.7
5'03.1 - 5'04.9
5'05.2 - 5'07.0


5'04/5'05 looks a good target in a "perfect" outdoor race currently

you can try infinite variations here :

http://www.jundo.co.uk
lawguy
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 12/1/2012 6:33PM - in reply to ventolin^3 Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Thanks Ventolin. That's very interesting. For a track 5k, I think she could go 1840ish right now.

I agree on the rest of your assessments. If she can run 505-508 indoors at the end of the month, hopefully that will be good enough for some programs to be interested in her. With her speed, that would certainly be a strong indication that she's heading for mid to high 450s this spring.
ventolin^3
RE: Predict a 1600 time for my top girl... 12/1/2012 8:04PM - in reply to lawguy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
with a youngster, their endurance won't be upto scratch

( an 18'45 may still be way off "african" similar age gal, say 18'00, but your gal may have no "drop off" until beyond mile race, so their times upto mile may be same )

much better to envision their current 400/800 best & pick off until beyond training distance

e g

i reckon for your gal, you need to think

57 - 58 / 2'10 - 2'12 ->

57 / 2'12 ->

4'38.2
5'00.0
5'02.1
18'42.5


57 / 2'10 ->

4'31.0
4'52.0
4'54.0
17'56.9


58 / 2'12 ->

4'34.8
4'56.0
4'58.0
18'09.4


58 / 2'10 ->

4'27.6
4'48.0
4'50.0
17'23.9



if you want to get anywhere as a knowlegeable/respected coach, you need to know what ultimate potential is from kid to WR holder

i have no clue who your runner is, but already, above indicates something close to 5'00 outdoors currently ( the 5k drop off isn't relevant to her yet - she's not peak track-paula )
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