your benevolent dictator
1. Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia) - 47:08
2. Tiki Gelana (Ethiopia) - 48:09
3. Beatrice Mutai (Kenya) - 48:52
4. Lucy Macharia (Kenya) - 49:00
5. Gelete Burka (Ethiopia) - 49:26
6. Aki Odagiri (Japan) - 50:57
7. Merel de Knegt (Netherlands) - 51:43
8. Eriko Kushima (Japan) - 51:49
9. Hikari Yasuhara (Japan) - 52:14
10. Miranda Boonstra (Netherlands) - 52:23
11. Mei Matsuyama (Japan) - 52:59
Now admittedly it was only 15km but one of the things that we learned in New York before the marathon was that Gelana was supposedly in very good shape (We never put up those interviews on the last day once the race was cancelled - maybe we should). Her coach, Getaneh Tessema, said he thought she was in better shape than when she won Olympic gold this summer.
He wasn't sure if she as in better shape than when she ran 2:18:58 this spring but still.
Video highlights of 15km in Dutch here:
NY Times article on Gelana from Friday (Nov 16) where she talks about eventually going after the WR in the marathon - the same thing her coach talked to us about:
15km is not fundamentally different than 10,000m. A Half is getting there, and going from a Half to the Marathon is something that has eluded a number of fast Half runners.
For Dibaba, one of the advantages on the track is her finishing speed. At the marathon that is worth much, much less. She should be able to run 'well' (2:22-2:26) but I am not sure she is a 2:19 with high probability. [Look at the guy who has won five Half World titles.]
The closest analogue is Haile Gebrselassie.
47:08 = 2:22 from MacMillan, so there is a clue.
Here is the IAAF recap of the race:
Nicholas Kipkemboi Upset Men's 15k WR Holder Leonard Komon
|Ben L. Wrong|
To be a marathoner it's a totally different world.
Haile is the exception...not the rule
Anyways...Haile G (almost unbeatable in the track) could not beat a prime Wanjiru in a major marathon. In a normal day.
Same if Bekele stick to 26.2...he will be very good but never unbeatable like his track prime.
Is Nicholas Kipkemboi the same as Nicholas Kemboi?
The only reason Haile and Bekele wouldn't be as unbeatable is because.... they would be competing in the marathon PAST THEIR PRIME. Has nothing to do with it being a different world. They are not the exceptions. Wanjiru himself is an example of this. He is better than Farah and Rupp at 10k.
Because he was in his 40s by the time he became a full-time marathon runner.