jasari22 wrote:
The 6x1km with 3min recovery wont really help predictions because the type of athlete and other key indicators also affect results. I was an 800m runner in 1:49 shape and did that very session for 2 training blocks and got to 2:59 average on a hilly course. My 5km time was only 18min. We had another guy in the squad who was averaging 3:10 and ran 16:30 for 5km. He was better in endurance events.
Yeah, that much rest makes it harder to predict, BUT: *combined* with your info about the 16:55, it wouldn't be unreasonable for the kid on the same course, or a course of the same length and difficulty--this is cross-country, after all--to look for something under 16:40.
[Your practiced eye is very important here. You were paying attention during the 6 x 1000, and he looked "pretty comfortable." From that I'd guess that he looked like a distance runner while doing the 1000s, rather than showing a middle-distance movement pattern. As "jasari" observed, with that much rest two different kinds of people could hit those times: one, a distance runner using his xc stride; the other, an MD type using his 800/mile stride. Big difference in predictability!]
I would observe that the fast start in his 16:55 appears not to have had too terrible an effect on him--which is a good thing, because he'll probably need to be ready for a start something like that in the end-of-season championships.