The BMW Berlin marathon is this Sunday, the world's fastest marathon runner toes the line (with a chance of sealing the WMM victory), and there's no thread on the topic yet?
Here's my take on the situation in the men's race:
Geoffrey Mutai is the clear favourite, and he only needs to win the race to secure his $500.000 WMM cheque. The expectation is, of course, that he was signed for another world record attempt - after Haile and then Makau set the previous world records on the same course. I am a little doubtful that will happen though. Mutai has not done anything special this year. Was he saving himself for the big prize in the fall, after he dropped out in Boston - and is that big prize the WMM, or could he really have a shot at the world record?
Personally, I think the chances are slim; he only has to win the race in order to win the big cash prize, against a pretty weak field - Jonathan Maiyo, 2:04:56, from the (suspiciously) fast Dubai race, Deressa Chimsa (2:05:42, also from Dubai), and Nicholas Kamakya (2:06:34 from Amsterdam 2011). Why take any risks? Perhaps more exciting will be the debut of Dennis Kimetto and Geoffrey Kipsang, both of whom have fast HM times from this year (59:14 and 59:26). I don't think anyone of them is fast enough to push Mutai to WR pace, but everyone of them is capable of sub 2:06, enough to make Mutai not wanting to risk defeat.
I would like to be proven wrong - perhaps Mutai is in great shape, and will run 2:03:XX, but I think the cards are stacked against it. Not against him, he has been dealt a pretty good hand indeed, but against him running a really fast time.
Unfortunately, I don't know much about the women's race - it could turn out to be the more exciting one to watch, unless either Kimetto or Geoffrey Kipsang come up with a big surprise in the men's race.
My prediction: Mutai from Maiyo and Kimetto, in 2:05:XX