Running sub-11 100m -- Bet

Tyson Gay is two inches shorter than you but weighs 165. Maybe all sprinters over report their height, but things aren't looking good.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Gay

Advice: open an ING direct savings account with $250. With a referral (I can hook you up), you'll get a $25 bonus. Starting next month, deposit $65.15 each month until the race (11 months). That'll give you $1000 (from $970.61 of your input) unless interest rates continue to drop (currently 0.8% APY).

Alternately, secretly run a betting pool on the race. I don't know the term for it, but as a bookie, you can adjust the payout odds based on what people are actually betting to assure that you, the bookie, always comes out ahead. Now you just need to find enough people so you'll come $1000 ahead.

That was a pretty stupid bet.

Possibly. The money isnt really an issue. Just an incentive for me to give it a go.

Not a great bet for you. Sub 11 is legit for a non-sprinter (with specific sprint training). Good luck, sorry I have no sprinting background and no advice.

This is the worst bet you could have ever taken my friend. I saw you mentioned rugby, I'm from Australia and know for a fact that top level rugby commentators really underestimate how hard it is to break 11sec. Personally I doubt you'll get even remotely close with your background. Nothing to lose in having a crack though.

I'm no sprinter either, but I've improved vastly by boiling down sprint coaches' endless details about good form to

step over, drive down

and

ride the bicycle

they both mean essentially the same thing. Trailing foot should pass above the leading knee, and the lead leg should drive down and back and claw at the ground.

I though riding the bicycle meant steroid cycles

If true, definitely dumb for taking the bet.

When people try to estimate their own ability without much actual experience or times, they tend to over-estimate how good they will be. This actually gets magnfied if they watch the sport on TV. Person knows they are faster than average, sees Bolt run 9.6, thinks 'well I know I'm not as fast as him, but I beat everyone in my neighborhood, so I bet I could stay within a second or so of him'. Seems logical, but isn't. Kind of like seeing Strasburg or Chapman throw 100mph and since I used to pitch and have a strong arm (by the standards of my softball team) I bet I could thow 85mps or clean and jerk 60% of what the Olympians do since I go to the gym and do a decent bench press. Tempting to think this way, but usually it's false. Probably only 0.1% of the world can break 11 and of that 0.1%, 99% of them had significant track experience before doing it. And the people they are blowing away in HS meets that only run 12 - well they too were the fastest kids in their neighborhoods and beat everyone on the JHS soccer team or Pop Warner team or whatever. The slow kids don't even run and would have trouble breaking 13.5 if they did.

My first inclination is that you are just a troll, and that this story is pure fiction.

0/10

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But IF you are not, then you have just lost $1000

I'm sorry to say that you do not have the ability. Period.

And even if you did, you would not survive the required training as you are, and you would need to do massive drugs.

And even if you did the drugs, you wouldn't get it.

You would even have a very tough time with the 12-second barrier, and could absolutely not break 12 unless you lost 30-40 lbs, trained massively for the entire year, and took drugs to keep you in training, otherwise your "bad hamstrings" and other weaknesses would leave you crippled.

15.30 is a kick-ass TJ at age 15, though...why didn't you pick it up again in your 20's? IMHO, that's really great.

BTW, I know a guy who is now in his mid-30's, and who has just PR'd in the TJ, at something like 14.21

A word of caution, if you try these things, really watch out for your achilles.

LOL.

Are you SURE you didn't mean to bet you can run sub 12? It's a common mistake to accidentally say the number you want to run and add a "sub" before it.

I still couldn't see you running sub 12 unless a very significant detail was left out.

Are you black? Any African descent? If so, it's possible but you would need to lose massive weight and have the best coaches, masseuses, etc to get there.

It would cost you far more than a $1000 to get you to sub 12 in one year. As far as sub 11 you have 0% chance. Even with the horse steroids Ben Johnson took, Glen Mills coaching you and Usain Bolt your training partner.

Im not trolling and some interesting points here.

Clearly, judging by the comments, I have little chance of doing this. Though Im not sure where the difficulty in running sub 12 would come from as some have suggested. Perhaps I am underestimating the difficulty but I wouldnt see running sub 12 as a problem.

I think the best and most accurate point is that my body will struggle to cope with the training required. A legacy of hamstring tears and age means I may have issues keeping up with what I need to do.

I am not black - Im as white as they come and I have no interest in doing steroids.

My triple jump was exceptional in my teens but I didnt continue or take it back up for 3 reasons. Firstly the places I trained didnt have triple jump as a priority or adequate coaching, secondly I filled out and put on muscle mass and it put a lot of strain on my joints when jumping and finally, I was concentrating on trying to - unsuccessfully - make it pro in a couple of other sports.

My main concern with this bet is my speed endurance. Im explosive but, and I know this sounds silly, but 100m is a long way to maintain speed.

Thanks for the feedback and the honesty.

Also, as a thought exercise, lets say I currently run a 12.5 (not saying a do but for the purposes of this let's assume I do) with no training, weak hamstrings, ordinary fitness and average flexibility.

What would be realistic to take off that time with serious training?

Goughy--

Wow, you actually sound like a reasonable guy, a rarity here on these boards! Either that, or a really great troll.

So, to be clear, there is not "little chance" that you will break 11, there is "no" chance.

About breaking 12 within a year, here is some wisdom:

1) You believe you are explosive, and you feel explosive, and you very well may be explosive--but you won't be "as" explosive as you were when younger, particularly if you haven't been training.

2) 100m is much more than explosiveness.

3) 12.00 FAT from the blocks is absolutely achievable by a guy your age, within a year, as long as you stay healthy, and as long as you have good native talent--which it sounds like you might--however, you will definitely need to lose body weight. Of this, there is no question.

4) Considering you haven't been training for this, my first suggestion would be an indoor 60m goal, that is equivalent to a 12.00 100m outdoors.

5) Finally, it isn't wise of you to put anything like a quick time frame on anything at this point, if you're not willing to juice. Make sub-12 your first goal, but put the timeframe out a bit, to enable you to develop your "power base", which will enable you to go even faster in the future. If you really have talent, give yourself 2 years or so, and you could very well be running 11.5 or better! The faster you push yourself, the more likely you will get injured...and once you are behind the injury 8-ball, you either have to rest and not get faster, or you have to already be fast and learn to run with the injury, slightly slower than you normally would if you were healthy.

I think I have the speed in me - it's the endurance. My start is trememdous.

It makes a difference if that is a 12.5 hand, or a 12.50 FAT from the blocks.

Timeframe matters--let's limit it to one year, so that we're talking about some outdoor time at the end of next summer.

If it's 12.5 hand, it's actually around 13--if that's the case, I would say that you could reasonably aim for 12.1-12.25 by the end of next summer. You could be either better or worse, based on a number of things--but the important thing to consider is that the end of next summer is not the absolute goal, it should be seen as just one point in a longer journey. Don't put too much emphasis on your performance at that point, unless you plan never to set foot on a track again.

If it's 12.50 FAT from the blocks, you could aim for 11.80-12.00 reasonably, IMHO. There is a law of diminishing returns the faster you go; also, the forces and torques become greater, the training harder, and the injury potential much greater. It will take you some time to find your best balance between body mass and power output, and you will probably see-saw a bit before you find it. Also, to improve more at this point requires technical coaching--even a slight difference in top-end or transition mechanics can make a huge difference.

Unless you are an absolute natural, that is, which you might be. Let us know what happens.

Try to go, say, 7.75-7.80 in a 60m this indoor season. Regardless of how fast you actually go, you will get some sort of idea of your relative ability in the 100. That's not a perfect conversion to 12.00 outdoors, but whatever, it's not meant to be--it is just a suggestion.

Hmm, yeah, I didnt write the above

Sprintgeezer thanks for the feedback. I hadnt considered the 60m before. Sounds like a good first step to see where I am at.

Sorry for trolling. But I thought you were a troll. You seem real.