If he tries to run with the 2:05-06 guys in Chicago, then he'll finish in 2:12 or so.
If he runs his own race or the overall pace is slow, I'd say he could finish in about low 2:09/high 2:08 range given good conditions.
That's great because it'll be won in 2:06[/quote]
What is your point? What do you want him to do? Morph into someone he's not and run 2:06? He's 2.5 minutes off the best in the half marathon. People seem to think he's tanking when he doesn't excel in the marathon time wise. He's never run a fast half, or even 10k. His 5k is the best time he's ever run for any distance. If he ran 58:30 in the half, then yes i'd expect him to run 2:04 flat in the marathon. If he runs 61, then it makes sense if he runs a 2:09. Hall ran his 59:46? and then his 2:06 and change. His high 2:04 was because of the huge tailwind.
Ritz is making progress and getting back to being competitive. He can be a competitive runner at any distance if he gets it right. But no one should belittle a 2:09. He's tryiny. I'll give him a 2:08:30 for the marathon if he's fit.
If he's been doing actual marathon training in the build up to this race, and didn't do much of a taper, I'd say 2:07 for sure...but the snippets of training and workouts I've seen for his previous marathon training seem more like HM training; too fast to be specific marathon pace workouts (probably b/c he thinks he can throw down 4:45s).
Place Bib Name Point Time Leader Diff Pace Avg. Pace
1 1 S. Biwott... FINISH 01:00:02 --- 04:37 04:35
2 50 P. Lonyan... FINISH 01:00:42 +00:40.00 04:43 04:38
3 2 D. Ritzen... FINISH 01:00:56 +00:54.11 04:41 04:39
4 12 E. Hassan... FINISH 01:01:14 +01:11.93 04:47 04:41
5 11 E. Chichi... FINISH 01:02:30 +02:27.54 04:53 04:46
6 8 A. Falil... FINISH 01:02:51 +02:49.30 04:49 04:48
7 4 C. Nyasan... FINISH 01:03:12 +03:10.14 04:55 04:50
8 7 Scott Bauhs FINISH 01:04:24 +04:22.45 04:56 04:55
9 14 Mike Morgan FINISH 01:04:27 +04:25.22 04:57 04:55
101 17 Craig Leon FINISH 01:04:53 +04:50.63
|fly a kite|
off of a 12.56 5000m the guy should be capable of ~27minutes for 10k, sub-1hr for the half, and sub-2h06 for the Marathon, with the correct preparation. If not then he simply isn't a Marathoner and should focus on 5k/10k on the track or the roads up to the half. On the other hand even mediocre Americans (not sub-2h10) can get good money for a 2h10, whereas Africans can't.
I'd like to see that then all the a**holes who criticize him for being slow can start criticizing him for using PED's.
Great job Ritz- if all the idiots who are critical were able to run as fast as you the USA would have a TON of 2:09 marathoners, then they could all train together to get even faster.
ritz ran 60:00 (actually 59:59 rounded up) to win his world half marathon bronze in 2009. This is a solid time for him with his target race being the marathon three weeks away. Let's hope he can finally really breakthrough in the marathon and run 2:06. But surely 2:09 is in the cards at least.