Ventarded 2.0 wrote:
New ultrarunning sensation Sage Canaday recently won the Mt. Washington mountain race in the 3rd fastest time ever and then followed that up with a course record at the American River 50-miler, destroying ultrarunning legend Anton Krupicka's old course record by over 9 minutes.
My calculator shows the following estimates for Sage at some of the biggest races around the country:
64:32 / 2:16:52 -> 5:15:45 at JFK 50-miler
2:16:52 / 6:16:10 WR50 -> 14:14 at Vermont 100-miler
2:16:52 / 6:16:10 WR50 -> 17:17 at Wasatch
2:16:52 / 6:16:10 WR50 -> 13:59 at Western States
2:16:52 / 6:16:10 WR50 -> 14:59 at Leadville
2:16:52 / 6:16:10 WR50 -> 21:59 at Badwater!!!
Predictions? No morons please.
Regarding your estimates:
JFK 50 miler...could be possible but that is still 6:18 pace (first 8-10 miles are very technical single track too)...new course record was just set this past year by David Riddle
Vermont 100: record is 14:53 by Leigh Schmitt...could be broken by an elite ultra runner...
Wasatch 100: Geoff Roes (Western States 2010 winner)has the record of 18:30 on a very tough course
Western States 100: nobody is running 13:59 on that course...record was just broken this year by Timothy Olson at 14:46 (that's 8:36 pace with 22K of descent and 15K ascent) on an abnormally cool day. It never got above 75 degrees in the canyons where normally it is over 100)
Leadville 100: that record is untouchable..15:42 by Matt Carpenter....he has the record by over 30 minutes...read his account of the record...http://www.skyrunner.com/story/2005lt100.htm
Badwater: unlikely in that heat...record was almost broken this year though by Mike Morton, but it was an unusually cooler day (110 instead of 120-125)