From Alberto Stretti's blog
1500m Men
If OG were a meeting, with the possibility to have good pacers for launching the speed from the start, I couldn’t have any doubt speaking about Asbel Kiprop, Silas Kiplagat and Nixon Chepseba as favorite. But the reality is that in the Olympic final there are no rabbits, and nobody wants to go in front for pushing during the first two laps, thinking to do a work dangerous for their final result.
In this situation, I’m not sure the fastest can win, since the tactical ability becomes one quality very important. And, under this point of view, never Kenyan specialists showed to have great ability.
In the race, there are 3 masters of tactic : NICK WILLIS of New Zealand, ABDELADAATI IGUIDER of Maroc and TAOUFIK MAKHLOUFI of Algeria.
Makhloufi was in training in Iten for about two months this winter, and I know him very well. He suffered in high altitude, but always was very tough with himself in training, and did a lot of workouts for increasing his aerobic power. Like many athletes from Maghreb, Taoufik works a lot in the gym, and this fact can explain the muscle mass they have compared with Kenyans. He was together with the group of Kaki, Hamza Driouch and Balla with the coach Jama Aden, and their training continued together also later.
Makhloufi improved a lot in 800m, winning in Porto Novo the African Championships with 1’43”88 defeating kenyans Kitum and Kinyor, and this speed helped him in running fast 1500m too. However, his PB of 3’30”80 came in a very fast race, with good pace, and could give him a 5th place only, in the Diamond League of Monaco.
There were polemics about his participation in 800m and his disqualification. I thin this is a ridiculous situation : of course, an athlete having possibility to win a medal in one event of middle distance doesn’t go to waste his energies in the resting day, running the heats of another event where he doesn’t have any chance ! May be the way he chose for solving the mistake of his Federation was not the best, but in any case an athlete cant pay for the bad management of his Federation.
Makhloufi showed, during the two previous rounds, to be very smart tactically, and to understand exactly where to stay during the race, and when to move at the end.
Same thing for IGUIDER, that this winter won World Indoor Championships without being involved in any strange tactic, with big personality, and for NICK WILLIS, already 3rd at the finish line in Beijing (later officially 2nd for the disqualification of the doped Ramzi) and this year able to improve his PB.
On the other side, Kenyans didn’t show good tactic during the previous rounds. NIXON CHEPSEBA went in front in the heat slowing down continuously, and when was attacked was overtaken by 6 athletes together. An athlete so tall and with so long strides cant remain in the middle of the group without risk, and this is exactly what happened when he overtook the group with 250m to go : he was touched from behind, lost balance and concentration, and was not able to finish in top six. Only after a request of AK he was reinstated in the semifinal, where, remembering the heat, went in fron pacing at good speed (1’54”7 at 800m and 2’52”8 at 1200m).
ASBEL KIPROP, probably the best in the world, was very easy in the heat, but didn’t impress me too much in the semi. It seems he can have a minor injury : he doesn’t seem too worry of it, but the impression was not the same of the last competitions.
SILAS KIPLAGAT every time is able to go, during the race, in some wrong place. I explained him several times that a top runner, in case of tactical race, needs to stay between the first and the second lane, for having the possibility to increase the speed when he wants, not depending on the choices of other athletes. Instead, the main mistake of Silas is always to go inside when he see a passage, with the final result to be boxed. In this way, he cant use his progression, that is his best quality.
If they are able to speak together, deciding to have a fast pace (for example, 1’52” at 800 and 2’50” at 1200m), I think Kenyans can sweep the podium. But, if everybody looks for himself, thinking to have chances to win in any case, the big risk is that Kenya can win at least one medal, probably not the most important.
http://www.albertostretti.org/2012/08/1500-men-final-day5renato-canova-opinion.html