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rojo
co-founder
Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/1/2012 9:32PM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
We've just updated our men's 10,000 preview http://www.letsrun.com/2012/men-ten-0801.php - with the following:

As we were getting started on this preview, we emailed Renato Canova and told him we were going to lead our preview with his quote from June and wanted to know if his thoughts about the race had changed. We also told him we'd heard a rumor that Farah might be injured - had he heard anything about that? Here is Canova's response:


Renato Canova wrote:

Robert,

I don't know anything about an injury of Mo, and frankly I think is pre=tactic. I don't change my idea : Bekele can run about 26'30", and needs a fast race because well know is not able to finish in 53", as Mo can do if the race is about 27'. In this tactic, he can be helped (and can help) the Kenyans, needing the same type of competitions. The fastest among them, Wilson Kiprop, never can run under 55". Karoki has in mind to push, and can be very aggressive after the first 4 km.

Personally I don't think Tariku and Gebremariam can have some chance. So, my percentages are : 40% Bekele, 40% Mo Farah, 10% Wilson Kiprop, 5% Galen Rupp and 5% for another athlete between Moses Masai, Kipsiro and Karoki.

I write my previews every day for the blog of Alberto Stretti, together with a technical analysis after the races. You can take some info from it, of course it's my responsibility if I write something wrong...

Take care, Renato


It's kind of interesting to see his percentages are pretty close to the LetsRun.com audience except he gives his own athlete less of a chance and Galen Rupp more of a chance.
Montesquieu
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/1/2012 9:45PM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I beg to differ from RC, but to rank Kiprop ahead of Rupp does not hold up under the light of day. Rupp is thirteen seconds faster at 10,000, and would crush Kiprop at 1500 and 5000. We underestimate Rupp because he's an American, and we think the Africans must be better, but the only two Africans in the Olympics who have a faster PR than he does are Bekele and Tadesse, and there's no evidence Tadesse has the fitness to be a factor on Saturday. And as for Bekele, there's no evidence he's ready to run 26:30s, much less 26:30, something he hasn't done since 2008.
J.R.
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/1/2012 10:08PM - in reply to Montesquieu Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Montesquieu wrote:

as for Bekele, there's no evidence he's ready to run 26:30s, much less 26:30


Huh, he's run 12:55.

Double, add 40 seconds, and that's 26:30.
not.a.doc
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/1/2012 10:24PM - in reply to J.R. Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

J.R. wrote:

[quote]Montesquieu wrote:

as for Bekele, there's no evidence he's ready to run 26:30s, much less 26:30


Huh, he's run 12:55.

Double, add 40 seconds, and that's 26:30.[/quote]

Chris Solinsky PR 12:55.5. Double and add 40 seconds = 26:31.

Bekele PR 12:37. Double and add 40 seconds = 25:54.

Ummm...I think your method leaves a bit to be desired.
shoe guy
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/1/2012 10:40PM - in reply to J.R. Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

J.R. wrote:

[quote]Montesquieu wrote:

as for Bekele, there's no evidence he's ready to run 26:30s, much less 26:30


Huh, he's run 12:55.

Double, add 40 seconds, and that's 26:30.[/quote]

You're supposed to double and add a minute. That gives 26:50 based on a 12:55 5k. However, Bekele is likely in better shape than he was in Paris when he ran 12:55, and also leans more toward the 10k. 26:30 is not out of the question, but I agree with Renato, if the race gets tactical he will lose over the last 800m to Mo Farah.
SPMBLNPF
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/1/2012 10:43PM - in reply to not.a.doc Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

not.a.doc wrote:

[quote]J.R. wrote:

[quote]Montesquieu wrote:

as for Bekele, there's no evidence he's ready to run 26:30s, much less 26:30


Huh, he's run 12:55.

Double, add 40 seconds, and that's 26:30.[/quote]

Chris Solinsky PR 12:55.5. Double and add 40 seconds = 26:31.

Bekele PR 12:37. Double and add 40 seconds = 25:54.

Ummm...I think your method leaves a bit to be desired.[/quote]



It's a method Canova described as being possible for a certain type of athlete. I think it is possible, but not necessarily for Kenenisa. However, what some people don't comprehend is that all this talk about the final finishing time misses the point a bit. It's a factor, but a bigger factor is that Kenenisa is the toughest one mentally. He will REFUSE TO LOSE. I've seen it in him before when everything is on the line. I believe this is it for him. This is everything and he knows there are doubters, but as long as he doesn't doubt, he will win. Kenenisa is the one who can suffer the most. Yeah, he is as talented as they come, but that is not what will get him this gold medal. Kenenisa can pay the price more than anybody in this field. Kenenisa likely could not win the 5000m, because his mental advantage might not be enough, but in this 10,000m, he is still mentally a man among boys. Yeah, he is shy, but what burns inside him cannot be taught. The man has more pride in him than the rest, and you will see it Saturday.
Ummmmm
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/1/2012 11:09PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
It's the Olympics so two things hold: PRs don't matter and expect the unexpected. Rupp could win or DNF. Who the F knows? Farrah? No idea. Can't wait to watch - of course I'm sure I'll miss the finish because of some dumb ass car bungee jumping.
rupp-certified saladbar
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/1/2012 11:11PM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

SPMBLNPF wrote:
Kenenisa is the toughest one mentally. He will REFUSE TO LOSE. I've seen it in him before when everything is on the line.


Um, like when he DNFed world cross? That time?

You are perhaps the dumbest poster on letsrun today.
SPMBLNPF
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/1/2012 11:18PM - in reply to rupp-certified saladbar Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

[quote]SPMBLNPF wrote:
Kenenisa is the toughest one mentally. He will REFUSE TO LOSE. I've seen it in him before when everything is on the line.


Um, like when he DNFed world cross? That time?

You are perhaps the dumbest poster on letsrun today.[/quote]


When Kenenisa is physically capable of winning, he wins. That is the greatest compliment you can give a competitor, and something you likely cannot relate to for palpable reasons.
Southern Chicken Lover
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/2/2012 12:00AM - in reply to SPMBLNPF Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

SPMBLNPF wrote:

[quote]rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

[quote]SPMBLNPF wrote:
Kenenisa is the toughest one mentally. He will REFUSE TO LOSE. I've seen it in him before when everything is on the line.


Um, like when he DNFed world cross? That time?

You are perhaps the dumbest poster on letsrun today.[/quote]


When Kenenisa is physically capable of winning, he wins. That is the greatest compliment you can give a competitor, and something you likely cannot relate to for palpable reasons.[/quote]

Why do you always attack the poster after your argument? It makes you seem so stupid.
ventolin^3
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/2/2012 12:51AM - in reply to Montesquieu Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Montesquieu wrote:I beg to differ from RC, but to rank Kiprop ahead of Rupp does not hold up under the light of day. Rupp is thirteen seconds faster at 10,000, and would crush Kiprop at 1500 and 5000


it's not that simple

wilson has never chased a time on the track

he's run to win in his few races at 10k & not even considered the clock

he won the 10k at trials & was by far the best of the kenyans & that was in 27'01 without any concern for the clock whupping amongst others 26'43 rotich

remember also he won kenyan 10k trials in nairobi in '10 in 27'26 which possibly worked out to 26'40 at sea-level & that was again a proper race not a tt & that was 2y ago !

his lines of fit i believe is very similar to tergat

53.5 / 1'51.3 ->

3'36.0
7'28.2
12'46.7
26'27.2


to

54.0 / 1'52.0 ->

3'36.8
7'28.6
12'46.1
26'22.2


rupp being faster at 1500 is no surprise at all, but look above & think tergat

the fact that canova is offering wilson only 10% chance indicates to me he may be carrying an injury/hasn't trained on from trials or more likely that the 2 other kenyans are hesitant to sacrifice themselves from the gun to pace him to <26'30

if they did, i'd put him level odds with kennster & 2nd favourite

canova himself said few weeks ago wilson is in 26'30/26'35 shape ( which i actually thought was an under-estimate )
yyy
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/2/2012 2:39AM - in reply to Southern Chicken Lover Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Rupp can stay with anyone, whether it is 26:20 pace or
27:20.

1) KB
2) MF
3) GR
gramthlete
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/2/2012 4:33AM - in reply to Southern Chicken Lover Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
One of these days I'd like to see a civil conversation on these forums that doesn't devolve into people calling each other stupid.
Nappy Roots
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/2/2012 5:47AM - in reply to gramthlete Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

gramthlete wrote:

One of these days I'd like to see a civil conversation on these forums that doesn't devolve into people calling each other stupid.


That's not gonna happen; humans visit this forum. With that said, here are my predictions:

1. Farah
2. Bekele
3. Rupp
Athlet X
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/2/2012 5:59AM - in reply to Nappy Roots Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Bekele
Taddese
Massai
bekele or not
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/2/2012 6:27AM - in reply to Athlet X Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Another Point of View
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/2/2012 9:12AM - in reply to yyy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

yyy wrote:

Rupp can stay with anyone, whether it is 26:20 pace or
27:20.


Hate to use it but...You do realize that the world record is 26:17 and nobody in the world has approached this in seven years.
split brain
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/2/2012 9:45AM - in reply to Another Point of View Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
hey renato's previews are pretty cool too:

http://www.albertostretti.org/
yyy
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/2/2012 10:35AM - in reply to Another Point of View Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
oops typo 26:40 makes more sense:)
Runthedistance2
RE: Renato Canova Emails In His Men's 10k Thoughts - He Gives Rupp 5% Chance For Gold - Bekele & Farah 40% 8/2/2012 11:22AM - in reply to Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
The Kenyan Team General Manager talked about using different technigues in 10000m, expect to see something different from previous championships.
see 1:34

shttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MUdMths4_k
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