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Koneko wrote:

Why the hell are we comparing female swimmers to el Guerrouj?

Also, Phelps is doped to the gills. DAT JAW.

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Ross Tucker wrote:

Good question.

Swimming is notoriously susceptible to technology, because technique and hydrodynamics have such an enormous effect on performance. If you look back on the history of the 100m freestyle record, for example, you see all kinds of "bumps" where seemingly arb things like goggles, swim caps, tumble turns were first introduced!

THe suits were massive - i calculated that the AVERAGE effect of the suits was about 2%. That was across male and female, and all distances and all strokes.

There were, by my count, 178 records in the two years that the suits were legal. There were 2 prior to the Games, and another 3 since.

It won't get anything like what we saw in Beijing, but certainly records are falling.

Have a look at the swimming events though, and take note of how far UNDER WR pace the swimmer is at the turns in the first half, and note how they struggle to keep ahead of the WR line at the end. Point is, what we are seeing now is that the starts and first half of races is much, much faster.

The reason for that is that they have modified the start blocks - you'll see a device on the block that allows them to drive off more than in the past. This has improved start times by a small but significant amount, and it's the reason (I think) that so many fast times are being done now - the guys are able to get out over the first 50m about 0.3 to 0.5s faster than before.

So when you see times that are comparable to 2008, they're actually slower SWIMMING times, but I suspect the start has made a difference.

Also, the swim caps are apparently new, and the pool design also helps - I believe the London pool has revolving shutters on the sides to take up the "wash" as swimmers go by, so it has lowered the effect of waves on swimmers.

Little things, little differences all add up and the effect is probably a 1 to 2% improvement. That's enough to cancel out the suit effect, almost.

Not quite, which is why we will not see 178 records in the next two years. And we definitely will not see 65 Olympic records in London. But we will see maybe 20, 30 of them.

Having said all this, I am sure there is doping in swimming. Why would it be immune? But I do think it doesn't explain the performance bumps, becuase doping will have been similar in 2012 as it was in 2008, so the difference is not the doping.

Ross

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buffet rule not wrote:

post a link that shows her closing in the 4:40s. she also isn't 16 and hasn't come from nowhere.

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buffet rule not wrote:

post a link that shows her closing in the 4:40s. she also isn't 16 and hasn't come from nowhere.

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TheRussianBear wrote:

You asked for it. Here you go: http://tinyurl.com/cdc42hl.

You will see that in the 2009 Chicago Marathon, Shobukhova hit 40K in 2:19:20, and finished in 2:25:56, for a final 2.2k of 6:36, which is 4:49.7 minutes per mile pace, or exactly 3:00 minutes per kilometer for those of us who do it that way.

But I didn't say faster than some arbitrary time, I said faster than the male winner. The male winner was Sammy Wanjiru. He hit 40K in 1:58:56 and finished in 2:05:41, for a final 2.2K of 6:45.

Yes, in the 2009 Chicago Marathon, Shobukhova closed faster than Sammy Wanjiru.

[quote]buffet rule not wrote:

post a link that shows her closing in the 4:40s. she also isn't 16 and hasn't come from nowhere.

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jjjjjjj wrote:Her performance, a WR, wouldn't be that special

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and was clearly holding a great deal of energy in reserve

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She may not be maximized at the other strokes

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but to go as fast as Lochte the last 100m?? Put it this way: El G averaged about 55 in his 3:26 WR and closed in 53, roughly 2 seconds better than the average. The Chinese girl averaged 1:07/100m and closed the freestyle in 58, 9 seconds faster than her overall average and 12 seconds faster than the average for the first three laps. Granted that the freestyle is the fastest stroke, she obviously wasn't getting the advantage of the start on the fourth 100m

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Sun may be as well (his celebration looked pretty steroidal) but he has a track record at least.

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Koneko wrote:

Why the hell are we comparing female swimmers to el Guerrouj?

Also, Phelps is doped to the gills. DAT JAW.

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Azaleas wrote:

Ugh, you people and your random doping accusations. No, having a big jaw is not a sign of doping. Yes, I know you read that HGH makes your jaw grow.

If you want to see what HGH abuse does to a face, look at pro bodybuilders.

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jjjjjjj wrote:only you would savage someone even where he agrees with you

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I didn't say that the time was not special but that a swimming world record is not that unusual, even post suits

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Sun is tall and therefore cannot dope? sure, that's logic for you

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Your arguments would persuade more if you did not go way over the top with each claim, asserting that your opponent has no knowledge whatsoever

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You are the only nonmoron in the world, by your worldview

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What's drivel about following through on the comparison to El Guerrouj: she absolutely destroyed her time on the previous strokes

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Incidentally, if you look at the very best men at the 1500m, they can close a slow paced race sometimes in 50-1. El Guerrouj closed his WR in 53 and Ngeny closed his Olympic gold race in 54.3 (leader to leader, a 3:32 race)

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So, you find them only able to drop 3 seconds on the last lap from fast to slow pace up to the bell

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What this girl did shows that she is analogous in ability to several Chinese women runners from almost 20 years ago

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able likely to annihilate records at numerous distances at once

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but holding back until she had to go to ensure the win

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She's 16 according to wiki

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She was faster than Lochte in the last 50m, which is ridiculous.

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