It's hard to believe, but it's true. The American men have a realistic chance at a medal in every distance event.
800- Anyone who has run 1:43 recently, has a realistic chance. We have two of those guys in Symmonds and Soloman.
1500- Cento has a monster kick, and medaled last year. Obviously that puts him in the mix.
Steeple- Jager just ran 8:06, and with only 3 Kenyans allowed, he is very much in the mix.
5000- Anyone who can run sub 13:00, and posseses a good kick has a good chance. Enter Lagat and Rupp.
10000- Anyone who can run sub 27:00 and has a good kick has a good chance. Rupp here as well.
Marathon- Meb has medaled before, and is incredibly consistent. He also seems to be getting better with age. Also, you can't count out anyone who has run 2:04:58.
Now, obviously all of these guys aren't going to medal. In fact, if just one of them did, that would be great, and I don't think 2 medals is out of the question. I would say the order of medal likelihood is:
I agree that the USA has some legit chances at medals.
BUT I don't see how anyone sees any chance for us in the marathon. The Olympic record is probably going to go down in London, the distance is on a whole nother level than when Meb got Silver.
Also Centro's chances are not so good... Not because he isn't good but because the event is strong this year.
Other than that I think we've got a solid chance, 800 guys look good, Rupp and Lagat look strong... I'm looking forward to seeing what Jager does in the steeple.
800: Slim chance. Solomon and Symmonds are maxed out at 1:43. Look for a 5th place.
1500: Slim chance. Centro isn't in top form and the competition is a lot sharper. I see him taking 7th, still a very good result.
3000sc: No chance. Kenyan sweep.
5000: Solid chance. Rupp can do it. Lagat maybe too, but gold and silver are out of the question. Neither of them can beat Gebrmeskel.
10000: Rupp's best shot.
Marathon: No chance.
|Get Outa Here|
Solomon over Symmonds? Get real, Symmonds is a championship racer, not a time trialer.
The 5000 is definitely our most likely medal with both Lagat and Rupp having real possibilities. I'd say its a toss up between the 10000 and Steeple as our next most likely, with a slight edge going to Rupp in the 10000. What gives Jager a good chance is the fact that there are only three Kenyans allowed, and it doesn't look like they are sending there best team. After the Kenyans, there isn't much else. So if one of them is a little off, Jager can slip right in there.
You say that as if there are a whole host of athletes who have gone under 1:43 this year. Especially with the way that Kaki has been performing as of late, a 1:43 performer is at least in contention for bronze.
This is pretty much on the money.
On the women's side Alysia Montano in the 800 is certainly the best bet - probably silver or bronze.
In the 1500, American aspirations were higher at the beginning of the year than they are now. Uceny is a low probability choice for a bronze. To have a medium/high probability of a medal we'd need a sub 4 minute performance at this point in the season, but the record of Uceny, Simpson and Rowbury this year just doesn't support that. In fact, only Jenny has done it, but that was in 2009, and she really hasn't come close since she decided to focus on the 1500.
Shalane Flanagan might do it in the 10000 - low to moderate probablity of medal.
I would love to think Coburn could place in the steeplechase, a wonderful level of confidence there, but her times don't quite seem to be competitive with the world. I wonder if Jenny Simpson now questions the wisdom of moving down to the 1500 from an event where she still has the American record.
Easy to predict Massachusetts native Shalane Flanagan and Maryland native Matthew Centrowitz due to their awesome parents ;-)
I predict medals from Uceny, Meb, Lagat, and Solomon.
This isn't on the money at all. Just to start with, to say that Jager has "no chance" is just foolish. Jager gets better every time he runs, and only the Kenyans are faster. But the Kenyans are always the three fastest guys in the field, and they rarely sweep. In fact, I think they have only done it once or twice in WC/OG.
In the 800, to say that Symmonds and Soloman have a "slim chance" because they are maxed at 1:43 is foolish. Besides Rudisha, everyone is maxed at 1:43.
Obviously the marathon is the longest shot, but to say a former medalist, and a 2:04:58 guy have "no chance", come on now. Thats just being a hater.
Don't take any of this to mean that I believe that all of these guys are favorites to medal, because that just isn't the case. What I'm saying is, and what the point of the thread is, every event has a legitimate medal possibility and is worth tuning in to watch. Like I said earlier, just getting one medal would be great. But 2 medals is certainly feasible. I'd say that we have a 50/50 chance of getting one, and maybe a 10% chance of 2.
2008 Bronze medalist times and their PRs at the time they won the medal along with the top American's PRs going into London:
800-1:44.82-Alfred Kirwa Yego-1:43.89/Duane Solomon-1:43.44
1500-3:34.21-Mehdi Baala-3:28.98/Andrew Wheating-3:30.90
5000-13:06.22-Edwin Soi-12:52.40/Bernard Lagat-12:53.60
10000-27:04.11-Micah Kogo-26:35.63/Galen Rupp-26:48.00
Steeple-8:11.01-Richard Mateelong-8:05.96/Evan Jager-8:06.81
Marathon-2:10.00-Tsegay Kebede-2:08.16/Ryan Hall-2:06:17
Obviously this doesn't show how much better the rest of the world may be this year, but it shows that the American men have the ability to be in contention. Solomon has a faster PR than Yego did when he won the bronze. Lagat's PR is only a second slower than Soi's was. Who knows what Rupp has up his sleeve for the 5 and 10. Jager has run a world class time and seems to only be improving, plus he goes into London as the 4th fastest man in the race. I think our weakest point is the marathon. Although Hall has fast times under his belt, I have zero faith in his ability to make something happen when it counts. I hope he can prove me wrong though.