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numbers are fun to play with
Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:05PM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I enjoy to make odds for events, so i will try and throw out some odds. I honestly study football betting and only follow pro running casually, so I dont think I will get them quite right, but i think it would be interesting to project.

So just to get the ball rolling... Please amend...

800 meters... american medal 8/1 12.5%
1500 meters... american medal 10/1 10%
5000 meters... american medal 3/1 33%
10000 meters... american medal 5/1 20%
marathon ... american medal 10/1 10%

adding these chances up equals 85.5 % chance of an american medaling in the olympics distance races.

Again.... please send amendments.
hobo w/shotgun
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:08PM - in reply to numbers are fun to play with Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
How can we lose!
Ghola
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:09PM - in reply to numbers are fun to play with Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Is this men only?
Not how percentages work
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:11PM - in reply to numbers are fun to play with Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Not a math major, huh?
for reals
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:11PM - in reply to hobo w/shotgun Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
one medal for the men would be awesome. I don't think people realize what an accomplishment that is in the land of advertised foodstamps and chuck e cheese.
Not how percentages work
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:12PM - in reply to Ghola Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Ghola wrote:
Is this men only?


When you factor in women, we are clearly over 100% to win a medal.
cenotaph
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:12PM - in reply to numbers are fun to play with Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
is it true we havent had a 800m and above mens medal since shorter in montreal?
Nope.
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:13PM - in reply to cenotaph Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

cenotaph wrote:
is it true we havent had a 800m and above mens medal since shorter in montreal?


False.
QTPi
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:13PM - in reply to Not how percentages work Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Not how percentages work wrote:
When you factor in women, we are clearly over 100% to win a medal.


this.
cenotaph
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:15PM - in reply to Nope. Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Nope. wrote:

[quote]cenotaph wrote:
is it true we havent had a 800m and above mens medal since shorter in montreal?


False.[/quote]

your response doesnt make sense. i posed a question
Nope.
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:17PM - in reply to cenotaph Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

cenotaph wrote:
is it true


It is false.
cenotaph
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:24PM - in reply to Nope. Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Nope. wrote:

[quote]cenotaph wrote:
is it true


It is false.[/quote]

see thats better

i checked and youre right

we have had 2 800m medals since montreal and 1 steeplechase medal. no 1500, no 5000, no 10000, no marathon. pretty lousy results. totally blanked since an 800m bronze in 1992. ouch
Nope.
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:27PM - in reply to cenotaph Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

cenotaph wrote:
no marathon. pretty lousy results. totally blanked since an 800m bronze in 1992. ouch


False.
#####
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:28PM - in reply to numbers are fun to play with Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
amended...

800 meters... american medal 7/1 12.5%
1500 meters... american medal 19/1 10%
5000 meters... american medal 2/1 33%
10000 meters... american medal 4/1 20%
marathon ... american medal 9/1 10%

adding these chances up equals 85.5 % chance of an american medaling in the olympics distance races.

Again.... please send amendments.
007run
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:30PM - in reply to cenotaph Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

cenotaph wrote:

[quote]Nope. wrote:

[quote]cenotaph wrote:
is it true


It is false.[/quote]

see thats better

i checked and youre right

we have had 2 800m medals since montreal and 1 steeplechase medal. no 1500, no 5000, no 10000, no marathon. pretty lousy results. totally blanked since an 800m bronze in 1992. ouch[/quote]

Didn't Meb get a silver medal?
cenotaph
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:33PM - in reply to 007run Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
hes not american
KKKlansman
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 10:35PM - in reply to cenotaph Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

cenotaph wrote:
hes not american


Ain't that the truth!
jackie jormp jomp
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/14/2012 11:30PM - in reply to numbers are fun to play with Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Who cares if we take a distance medal, we're number one in stats, whoooooooo!
yosjduc
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/15/2012 12:13AM - in reply to numbers are fun to play with Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

numbers are fun to play with wrote:

I enjoy to make odds for events, so i will try and throw out some odds. I honestly study football betting and only follow pro running casually, so I dont think I will get them quite right, but i think it would be interesting to project.

So just to get the ball rolling... Please amend...

800 meters... american medal 8/1 12.5%
1500 meters... american medal 10/1 10%
5000 meters... american medal 3/1 33%
10000 meters... american medal 5/1 20%
marathon ... american medal 10/1 10%

adding these chances up equals 85.5 % chance of an american medaling in the olympics distance races.

Again.... please send amendments.


Youre an onvious troll but ill bite.... that wouldnt make sense to add up all the chances.. say u flip a coin twice. The odds of heads on the first flip is fifty percent as well as the second one... by ur logic there is a 100 prrcrnt chance ull get heads at least once. So i hope u dont bet much because u need a course in probability 101. Alsoiapologize this is ped off a tablet and i was gonna give oddsbelow but messed up and cant scroll... 800 6.25% 1500 10% steeple 1% 5k 20% 10k 20% mar 1%... if i did this math right i give it just umder 50% chance of happening



1500 10/1 10%
steeple
alanson
RE: Current odds of US distance medal ... 85% 7/15/2012 12:35AM - in reply to ##### Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Given your probabilities, and not counting steeplechase, the mathematically correct answer is about 62.2%. That is the probability of 1 or more medals. About 37.8% that the US gets no medals.
I think your numbers are on the high side and it's 50/50 that the US gets no medals.
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