OK, let's agree that the 5000 goes without saying.
Given the way he destroyed the 1500 field at USATF last year, I think 1500 is relatively safe for him.
10,000 it gets hard to say. In a head-to-head time trial with Rupp right now, Rupp takes him, no contest. But in a tactical race with limited competition holding the A, I think Lagat sits on Rupp and crushes him the same as he does every 5000 they run.
Steeple, no question. Lagat is Kenyan. He is an athlete. He might not be able to run a world class steeple this moment, but he doesn't need to make the US team. (And honestly, I think he has the tools to do damage in this event.)
In fact, I think 1500/5000/10,000/steeple is TOO EASY for Lagat. To make it interesting, which FIFTH event would he have a chance to make: the 800 or the half marathon? (The HM "world championship" that IAAF puts on?)