SHALANE FLANAGAN: "training, Olympic Trials 10000m, & Edna Kiplagat 2:17 on Olympic Course"

Yikes if Edna thinks she can run 2:17 on the course then Mary Keitany have to be thinking she can run the WR. Shalane may run sub 2:20 and be the first women ever to place 5th with such a wonderful performance!

Shalane already has an Olympic bronze at 10k, a world cross country bronze, as well as a 2nd at the NY marathon. She could definitely be a medalist. The beauty of an olympic marathon is rather than there being 10-15 Kenyans and Ethiopians to beat, there are only three of each. Its a much smaller field than a major marathon. They have to stick with the leaders though. They can't hang back and hope to pick off the stragglers. The Kenyans won't die off or run slow.

Marathon dude wrote:

They can't hang back and hope to pick off the stragglers. The Kenyans won't die off or run slow.

Except Mary did die off and run slow in NYC. The women's Olympic marathon will be a great race because it won't just be about Kenya and Ethiopia. USA and Russia will have significant roles to play as well. On the men's side...not so much.

I'd like to see Lisa make the team, but only if she runs her best and doesn't get any outside assistance. If Shalane does assist her it some way, then Lisa could be disqualified.

Most likely Flanagan will run 2:25 again at London, at best, and has zero chance of a medal. She could maybe run 2:22 and sneak in for one, but the chances of that are not good.

Shalane has to be preparing to run 2:19. If the race goes out like that, she will go with it. If anyone goes out at 2:16-2:17 pace, I don't think she will go with that. She will be in the chase pack and certainly be in position to medal.

J.R. wrote:

I'd like to see Lisa make the team, but only if she runs her best and doesn't get any outside assistance. If Shalane does assist her it some way, then Lisa could be disqualified.

Most likely Flanagan will run 2:25 again at London, at best, and has zero chance of a medal. She could maybe run 2:22 and sneak in for one, but the chances of that are not good.

Please go back on your meds - either that or you're just another LR idiot.

It's his opinion although I don't agree with it because I think Shalane if she stays healthy will be in AT LEAST 2:21 shape by the Olympics and at best 2:19. That's on optimal conditions and pacing which isn't the case in the Olympics with the Kenyans it will be extremely fast or moderate with some strong and long surges by Mary Keitany.

I think Mary wants to go for a very fast time and blow away the field but can her coach talk her out of it and will she listen once she's on the starting line? If she blows out the gates it may be best for the Americans if they start fast but reasonable and pick off those who die in the wake. If it goes out sub 1:10 the Americans have to be within 1 minute regardless of what the pace goes out unless it goes out near WR pace.

The Americans have to acknowledge their strengths and have a decisive strategy going into the Olympic marathon. Shalane and Kara have an advantage as they train together and will have an idea of what each are capable of weeks before the Kenyan and Ethiopian camps take place.

Whatever those two strengths are they need to be ready to execute on race day. Shalane has mentioned in the past she prefers a steady tempo like Deena Kaster (in her prime) and if the pace goes out to slow then Shalane/Kara needs to take charge of the race til things heat up. Don't be just someone with possible medal potential who allow the race to dictated right out from under you!

If the course was flat like the Flora London Marathon then something close to the WR would be almost certain with Mary. Nothing is guaranteed but if any nation have a right to say they're looking for Gold and Silver it's Kenya, doesn't Shalane remember Kenya sweeping the medals at last year Worlds?

*stipe wrote:

Shalane has to be preparing to run 2:19. If the race goes out like that, she will go with it. If anyone goes out at 2:16-2:17 pace, I don't think she will go with that. She will be in the chase pack and certainly be in position to medal.

Ah yes, just like Ryan Hall ran in Beijing....

Shalane have a better chance of medaling in the 10000m then she does in the marathon. London will be fast and 2:25 will not be anywhere close to a medal unless the weather turns out to be horrible. If the weather is horrible and 2:25 wins then Shalane will be hard pressed to run 2:30.

Shalane shows she can compete well if the pace is moderate (2:25-2:28) but I don't think she can handle a 2:18 or ever 2:20 flat pace and that's the pace for the London Olympics.

If the Kenyans and Ethiopians go out a 2:20 flat pace the Americans will have ZERO chance of medaling in the women's marathon. 2:20 pace will have the Kenyans, Ethiopians, and Russians all at the front with one or two other runners from other nations and the Americans will not follow such a pace.

The Americans think too much and will think that a pack of 10 or 11 women at the pace will still allow them to pick enough off for a medal. When in fact 3 to 5 of the women will be able to hold that pace on the Olympic course that stranglers may come up for 5th or 6th at best but if the Americans are over a minute back at the half of a 2:20 pace then they should just drop out!

Shalane and Kara wake up until you run 2:19 then your just a 2:25 runners who THINK their much faster!

Who cares, I'd rather bang either of the 2, than alien looking ant women the Kenyans and Ethiopians have.

I think you better continue bangin' your pillow because the Ethiopian and Kenyan Olympic athletes have too much money and class to want you! OMG you're so delusional...anyway the Americans have a slightly better chance of medaling against the Russians, Ethiopians, and Kenyans as you have of getting some from them. Either way both cases are less then + 1%.

Just being realistic...the Americans needs to stop thinking so much and just race; otherwise, how will they ever pop such big personal best as the Africans do and medal. In 2004 Deena and Mebrahtom raced and Mebrahtom later confessed that he could have raced for the Gold after mile 20 but wanted to ensure he got silver. AMERICANS stop over-thinking during crunch time and race during the Championships.

If they think they are among the best then stop running for lesser medals and go for the GOLD! Since your not chopped liver- Shalane!

I'm rooting for Kara and shalane and desi but I'm more excited by the fact that there are soo many 2:20 and below runners! It's gonna be an awesome race.

I would like to see the American women do well also; however, the most aggressive one Desi actually stand the best chance to medal. Most of the American marathoners run to conservatively in the championship marathons thinking the Africans have made mistakes.

When Samuel Wanjiru won GOLD by going out at sub 2:06 pace none of the Americans went with him or even tried to stay close and the closest one ended up over 4 minutes back. The Africans don't let previous course records dictate their strategy even during championships races and that's where Edna's 2:17 statement came from- no fear!

If the Americans take more chances and run to win they may end up with more medals, yes some will crash and burn but at least they put themselves in the hunt. In the last 30 years how many have walked away with marathon championship medals- TWO.

So why shouldn't the Americans run like the Africans and maybe they will pull a Billy Mills!