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Tommy2Nuttz
Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 7:05PM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Now thats its about to go IPO, can it really maintain its stock value over the long term?

Yes they have a lot of people using it, but will this be over in the next 5-10yrs, as new interests grab peoples attention?
ugh......
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 7:16PM - in reply to Tommy2Nuttz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
yes
Mrr82
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 7:33PM - in reply to Tommy2Nuttz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
It has 1 huge switching cost that MySpace prevented which is a huge reason why they failed. Unlimited pictures. So many people have years of pictures on Facebook as their main picture storage place. It was easy, and common sense to ditch MySpace because they didn't accommodate this need. Not to mention how sketchy and full of spam it was. MySpace could have Probably survived if they had excelled at those two things.
this may hurt a little
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 7:50PM - in reply to Mrr82 Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Mrr82 wrote:

It has 1 huge switching cost that MySpace prevented which is a huge reason why they failed. Unlimited pictures. So many people have years of pictures on Facebook as their main picture storage place. It was easy, and common sense to ditch MySpace because they didn't accommodate this need. Not to mention how sketchy and full of spam it was. MySpace could have Probably survived if they had excelled at those two things.


How much money does Facebook actually currently make? They are going to have to do something spam-like to generate earnings eventually.
Some things are obvious
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 8:22PM - in reply to this may hurt a little Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

this may hurt a little wrote:


How much money does Facebook actually currently make? They are going to have to do something spam-like to generate earnings eventually.


You don't think that Facebook is currently making money? Seriously?
dpmrunner
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 8:40PM - in reply to Some things are obvious Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
There are all kinds of things you can pay for on FB, although I can't figure why you'd want to. But besides that, the ads generate revenue for them.

It could well last, but it would have to adapt, just as any business does. Newspapers got online editions, blogs, video, etc.

Its appeal now is that people of all ages use it (and see the ads which tend to be targeted to users' interests). So it's not as if it attracts just a niche audience that will outgrow it.
NJ Possible
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 8:45PM - in reply to Tommy2Nuttz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Tommy2Nuttz wrote:
Now thats its about to go IPO, can it really maintain its stock value over the long term?


The Instagram purchase has shown that fb will buy anything it needs to in order to remain number one. But a public company's long-term success is determined by more than simply user base.
doperdan
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 8:52PM - in reply to NJ Possible Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
They are testing out billing for functions. Currently in NZ.

Soon as that happens I will happily shut up shop.
Some things are obvious
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 9:01PM - in reply to doperdan Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

doperdan wrote:

They are testing out billing for functions. Currently in NZ.

Soon as that happens I will happily shut up shop.


My guess is that they are not completely retarded and will adapt their revenue model to maintain a dominant position. They will not just start charging for stupid sh!t and watch their users go from 1 B to 37,000.

Still, there will always be competition and the need to adapt. No idea if the IPO price is a good investment.
The breakdown
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 9:54PM - in reply to Some things are obvious Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
They are going to integrate themselves into the web. Sign in to all new apps will be through Facebook. Facebook will use its "like" feature spread out through the web to figure out what new fad apps are trending and take advantage of it. They will become indispensable to the social web. They are nothing like MySpace.
Mantheycallnoodle
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 9:54PM - in reply to Tommy2Nuttz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
crazy person
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 10:38PM - in reply to NJ Possible Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

NJ Possible wrote:

[quote]Tommy2Nuttz wrote:
Now thats its about to go IPO, can it really maintain its stock value over the long term?


The Instagram purchase has shown that fb will buy anything it needs to in order to remain number one. But a public company's long-term success is determined by more than simply user base.[/quote]

That Instagram purchase highlighted the ridiculousness of the current tech boom. $1 billion for a 13-employee company with essentially one product? A billion fricking dollars. It's a damn app. I digress.
fisky
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 10:38PM - in reply to Tommy2Nuttz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Over the long term, this isn't a bet on a stock. It's a bet on Zuckerberg. Can he turn the massive media hype and public interest in Facebook into massive amounts of revenue? More specifically, can he generate billions of dollars of profit? Sure, he can generate revenue, but can he generate tens of billion in revenue in order to generate....say, $5 billion in profits? And then generate $6 billion the next year? Then, $7bn or $8bn the next year? I don't see how. This reminds me of the hype and hysteria of the dot com boom back in 1999.

Zuckerberg may have already screwed up this IPO by failing to consult with his board before buying Instragram and showing up at the wall street investment banker meeting in his gangsta hoodie.

I wouldn't short the stock. In fact, it will probably pop well above it's offering price on the first day, but I wouldn't buy it.
manbearpig
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 10:54PM - in reply to Tommy2Nuttz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
once people get bored of playing farmville, facebook will be dead
JackOfAss
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 11:02PM - in reply to Tommy2Nuttz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Its a fad like email is a fad. I mean who emails pix to their friends... You just post them on fb and assume people see them that want to see them. I think fb or something like it is here for awhile.
Surprise!
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/14/2012 11:05PM - in reply to crazy person Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

crazy person wrote:

That Instagram purchase highlighted the ridiculousness of the current tech boom. $1 billion for a 13-employee company with essentially one product? A billion fricking dollars. It's a damn app. I digress.


While I don't disagree the overpaid, to be honest, the money spent was mostly for the user base, not the intellectual property.
DL13
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/15/2012 12:54AM - in reply to fisky Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
He didn't screw up the IPO. Funds can't get enough FB. The IPO is already overscribed and they keep raising the price range. It's looking like the IPO price will be in the high 30's, giving Facebook a value over 100 billion. And who knows where the stock will be trading when it actually opens up? 40? 45? 50?
BRG/253
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/15/2012 1:25AM - in reply to Tommy2Nuttz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Facebook is not a fad. It's a truly great platform and Mark Zuckerberg is a genius.

That said, I wouldn't touch its stock.
Roman Chars Arabic Numerals
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/15/2012 2:57AM - in reply to Tommy2Nuttz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
FB is me-too. FB will be big for 6-12 months then copycats will overshadow FB. The same has happened to other technologies as the became run-of-the-mill. Witness textiles, cars, microwave ovens, nuclear bombs, ...
ghostofbek
RE: Is Facebook a fad? 5/15/2012 4:25AM - in reply to Tommy2Nuttz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I think the big issue is that "everyone" already is on FB. Not like there is the possibility of having 10X as many users in a few years.
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