Another prediction like thread.
I am the distance track coach for a high school.
I have an athlete who will be a senior next year.
This past cross country season, he was running an average if about 18:20 for the 5k.
He is very determined but he doesnt know what he is doing ( he got an overuse injury)
I will be training him over the summer. I'm not his xc coach, but they dont meet ovee the summer anyways.
He is starting his base mid-may at 30 mpw. He will reach his max of 50-60 mpw by mid august.
Here's my question. He s never had consistent GOOD training his 1st 3 years of hs, though he has been running.
He s never even done a base before.
Assuming i hive him good quality training starting mid- may all the way through the end of october; what can he be expected to achieve timewise?
Im very careful to ease into the mileage and to prevent injury.
Also, while im here, whats a good indicator/test workout for the 5k?
I enjoy these a lot, and its a good confidence booster when the runner improves on these.
Can you run with him (bicycle beside him)
at least once a week this summer?
Kids on their own over the summer tend to
overdo it...in speed or mileage.
Some will take a week, sometimes two
weeks to rest and unwind
after outdoor track season is over.
Then just start back up with easy LSD.
Seven miles a day or roughly an hour run
63 minutes @ 9 min. miles.
Maybe in later July or August, his slow
miles can be 8 min. miles. None of his
road miles should be faster than 7:30.
Do a once a month track time trial
or just supervise him in 3 times 1 mile
after a 20 minute warm-up and light
stretching and make sure he gets
a 20 minute cooldown.
Be consistent. His last repeat should
be as fast as his first two.
Check his form and posture,
videotape if possible and
let him see himself and have him consider
small adjustments or corrections if necessary.
He could enter a couple of low-key local
road 5km in July and August to
give him some more experience
against collegiates and open runners.
No pressure, no expectations.
Just run for fun.
If he is running 7, 8, 9 hours a week
in July and August, stays healthy
and runs consistently, without pressure
he will have a fine XC season and
could expect to approach the 17 minute threshhold.
You stay positive and he'll stay positive.
Being that this will be the first time he'll get decent year-round training, I could see him dropping a minute for 5k. sub-17 might be stretching it, but 17:20-17:30 on the same courses as last year seems like a good goal.
He could do that just by maturing. Training should drop him even more.
Low 17s is very reasonable, if he stays healthy.
In high school:
sophomore year- started running over the summer (from being able to do 1 mile @ ~7:15 in PE Class in the spring, built up to about 25-30 miles/wk in August and peaked with ~17:50 3 mile pr. Injured during track
Junior year: after ~6-7 months of no running, quickly ramped up mileage in July-August to ~60 miles per wk in season for a few weeks. Got to ~ 18:40 5k by mid season, --> stress fracture
Senior year: ~6-7 months no running, very little base again, but got down to ~18:30 5k
I never had a consistent string of training until recently, but had some remarkable improvement once I did.
After high school; very little running over the next 8 years. In August 2010 I started back. In 3 months I ran a 18:50 5k. Then I dealt with an injury for a few months, with sporadic cross training. Then I got 2 months of consistent running in and ran a 36:30 10k road race. A month and a half later I ran a 17:30 cross country 5k.
This is basically me, I went from 18:03 to 17:16 in a windy -5 March 5k so getting to mid-low 17s seems reasonable. It should be worth noting I was coaching myself and doing a lot of stupid stuff like 70mpw of mostly fast stuff that hurt me more then it helped.
I will be running with him numerous times a week during base. Especially in the beginning to make sure he doesn't go to fast.
Towards the end of June, we will start some quality work and I will be with him for every quality session.
I am planning to start his easy runs at around 8 minutes and let it naturally go down throughout training.
... he will be at around 55 mpw in august.
His PR for 5k Is 17:54.. with other races ranging up to 18:40
This past track season was his first track season and I'm excited to see how the speedwork we did over track will help during xc.
I like the idea of running some fun 5ks later on.. I'll probably do it with him.
Thanks for the comments.. sub 17 will be a fine accomplishment
Sounds like you want to spend too much time with him this summer. Be careful you don't soil your reputation
ha thanks for the warning.
I should also mention I will be coaching a group of athletes.
I used the most hardworking/talented one as the basis of my topic.