Kellog finds a nut instead of a turd and suddenly he's the Boston expert now.
Give me a break, this guy is just guessing like the rest of us. I take no stock in his predictions.
Kellog finds a nut instead of a turd and suddenly he's the Boston expert now.
Give me a break, this guy is just guessing like the rest of us. I take no stock in his predictions.
Last years race was a walk in the park compared to what the runners will face today. Last year they weren't running at their limit until the very late stages. Today will be brutal. I agree 2:08 might be possible if they go from the gun, but somehow I feel they will take it a bit easier.
Just under 2:10.
Tha hatah be hatin' wrote:
Kellog finds a nut instead of a turd and suddenly he's the Boston expert now.
Give me a break, this guy is just guessing like the rest of us. I take no stock in his predictions.
But that is the whole point of these forums. If someone 1/2 way predicts something right, they rub it in faces for God knows how long. Especially the BroJos.
Nutella1 wrote:
Last years race was a walk in the park compared to what the runners will face today. Last year they weren't running at their limit until the very late stages. Today will be brutal. I agree 2:08 might be possible if they go from the gun, but somehow I feel they will take it a bit easier.
Just under 2:10.
He didn't say they would run 2:08. He said if they ran like last year they could do it. The probably will start slower (and have) but if they go through in 65 isn't a 63 2nd half is possible even in the heat and with the hills.
As long as they don't blow a time like the women as they are jogging.
I mean remember in 2004, they ran 2:10:37 in hotter weather that was in the 80s the hold race. The world record has come down by over a minute since then and then add another minute for the better weather today.
2:08s here we come baby!!
ha ha ha ha ha ha
Kellog is Wrong. Can we stop with this genius stuff Brojos.
way off rojo, way off indeed.
a sub 2:13 which means you weren't even remotely close.
all guesses.
Kellogg is no smarter than the rest of us.
his guess last year was just that, a guess.
dreaming on and on and on wrote:
Kellogg is no smarter than the rest of us.
I guarantee you he is way smarter than you and 99.9% of other people who visit LRC. He is a legitimate genius. I don't mean that in that oh he's really smart; he's like a genius. I mean he is an actual genius. That doesn't mean he's automatically an expert at predicting finishing times though. So whatever you think of his predictions and criticize those if you like. But your statement above is way way wrong.
That said, looking at what he said, I think his actual prediction wasn't so far off. He said "look for the times to be about 5:30 slower than last year if they make an honest race of it and churn out similar performances." They were out at 2:12 high pace for most of it and some guys tried to break away after half way and died...Korir kept it pretty even and ran 2:12 high. So they didn't exactly "get after it" like they did last year.
Also, I think the bigger point is the top 4 this year are definitely no where near as good as the top 4 last year. JK made that prediction for 2:08's thinking Mutai would probably win and put out a similar quality performance as last year. He dropped out. A 2:03 from last year might still have been worth a 2:08:30 today. Just the guys who ran today and the way they ran it might have been 2:05-2:07 range in last year's race.
I saw the leaders at the train depot in Framingham - they were working hard then, and they did "get after it." Saw them too just past 20, pure carnage. The heat was overwhelming, and his prediction underestimated its effect even though the forecast was spot on. As far as being way smarter, I don't know what that means, but I don't think anyone could run 2:08 on that course today.
I guarantee you he is way smarter than you and 99.9% of other people who visit LRC. He is a legitimate genius. I don't mean that in that oh he's really smart; he's like a genius. I mean he is an actual genius. That doesn't mean he's automatically an expert at predicting finishing times though. So whatever you think of his predictions and criticize those if you like. But your statement above is way way wrong.
That said, looking at what he said, I think his actual prediction wasn't so far off. He said "look for the times to be about 5:30 slower than last year if they make an honest race of it and churn out similar performances." They were out at 2:12 high pace for most of it and some guys tried to break away after half way and died...Korir kept it pretty even and ran 2:12 high. So they didn't exactly "get after it" like they did last year.
Also, I think the bigger point is the top 4 this year are definitely no where near as good as the top 4 last year. JK made that prediction for 2:08's thinking Mutai would probably win and put out a similar quality performance as last year. He dropped out. A 2:03 from last year might still have been worth a 2:08:30 today. Just the guys who ran today and the way they ran it might have been 2:05-2:07 range in last year's race.[/quote]
Let's face it, it was a bad prediction all around. To say "if they make it an honest race like last year" is lame. They obviously didn't make it "honest" because of the conditions. There is nothing to suggest they could have run 4 minutes faster.
If nothing else, 2004 Boston should give us a clue.
As for last year, well bill Rodgers said over 30 years ago that a world best was possible with the right conditions. Jk said nothing earth shattering last year.
ANYONE can say "if" they get after it. Give me a break you bozo! I picked 2:12:23, does that make me wrong because they didn't get after it, according to Kellogg? I bet this poster is Kellogg or a friend. He was wrong, admit it.
Though I agree wholehartedly with the sentiment of the thread, the irony of your title is rich.
The irony of his title is spot on.
A person is always correct with enough caveats and an open ended prediction. Of course it would be slower, 23,000 runners plus everyone else knew that. Of course last year was going to be faster, again 23,000 runners and anyone who looked at the weather knew that. It does not take a genius to make general predictions