Brutal Weather for Boston

RightFax wrote:

You guys have it all wrong.

The marathon is not your local 10k or 5k where if you have a bad race or bad weather you turn around and do it again in a few weeks. This is 6 months or more of preparation down the toilet just due to the weather- something totally out of your control. Its one thing to have a bad race because you ran stupid, or cramped, but to get taken down by the weather just sucks.

Also there's this factor. Boston is expensive, for me it was a big deal to travel up there, take off work, pay the hotel, air fare, etc.. and then get my race day shot to hell by something as simple as hot weather. It's the equivalent of planning a beach vacation and it pours rains every day.

I don't even think codger was "relish" that.

Look, the conditions are the same for everybody. Yes, you might be 5 minutes off your PB, but you might finish top 10 in your age group. Wouldn't you get satisfaction from that?

Seems nowadays if you don't run a fast time, even if you perform well in your age group, that the race is a bust.

codger wrote:

Look, the conditions are the same for everybody.

Sure. Conditions are the same on race day. But opportunities to heat train during the 4 months leading up to an April race are definitely not.

codger wrote:

Seems nowadays if you don't run a fast time, even if you perform well in your age group, that the race is a bust.

How do you arrive at such a broad conclusion?

6/10!

codger wrote:

RightFax wrote:

Also there's this factor. Boston is expensive, for me it was a big deal to travel up there, take off work, pay the hotel, air fare, etc.. and then get my race day shot to hell by something as simple as hot weather. It's the equivalent of planning a beach vacation and it pours rains every day.

I don't even think codger was "relish" that.

Look, the conditions are the same for everybody. Yes, you might be 5 minutes off your PB, but you might finish top 10 in your age group. Wouldn't you get satisfaction from that?

Seems nowadays if you don't run a fast time, even if you perform well in your age group, that the race is a bust.

I can agree with that. For me it was no tragedy, but I left Boston feeling like I had wasted a lot of money and a lot of time. Again, just disappointment- like my beach analogy in my earlier post.

In the marathon the weather is such a huge factor that I certainly shop around for cool climates and races run at certain times of the year. I can control my training, I can control my race- that one BIG variable out of my control is the heat, and I try to do everything I can to avoid it on race day.

is this going to effect who Kenya chooses for their Olympic marathon team?

Well, looks like it's not going to be a scorcher. Even Weather.com has changed their prediction down to a high of 65. Of course that could still change. http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USMA0188:1:US

Latest forecast is low 60's with very low humidity and a strong SW tailwind. Looks pretty good to me. Unless there's a big brush fire somewhere along the course.

"Massachusetts is on track to break a record for the least precipitation in the first 100 days of the year, according to the National Weather Service. There have only been three days so far this month that were free of a red flag brush fire warning. Above-normal temperatures, scant precipitation, and high winds create prime conditions for fires to spread quickly. And forecasters see no end to the dryness in the near future."

http://www.boston.com/Boston/metrodesk/2012/04/state-track-break-record-for-driest-first-days/NcxAXjxUqkR9PkYNmXmkVL/index.html

ecin wrote:

The best bet right now would be late on Monday, meaning the heat would peak on Marathon Day, perhaps topping 80 degrees, challenging the record for the date of 84 degrees set back in 2003.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2012/04/10/boston-marathon-weather-forecast-update-80-degrees-possible/

I know you didn't write the article, but is it possible the author is incorrect about the record setting heat in 2003? I wasn't there then, but I was in 2004, and it was pretty damn hot. Back then, the race started at noon. I vividly remember walking through the finish area and seeing people just sprawled out on the ground...looked like a war zone.

Yup, 67 degrees, sun and a cross wind (NW) are perfect conditions.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=thunder&w8=rain&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&AheadHour=104&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=42.33215&textField2=-71.24428&site=all&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0

from WBZ: "The Boston Marathon still looks dry at the moment with highs anywhere from the 60s if the GFSx solution verifies to near 80F if the EURO is correct. In other words, the marathoners should be hoping for the GFSx to verify in order to have more comfortable temps for running the 26.2 miles. Something in my gut tells me that the EURO is spot on though. We will be watching this closely."

I think the record setting heat was for April 16th but that the marathon that year was on a different day. 2004 was the hottest year ever for the Boston Marathon with highs reaching 86 degrees.

ray wrote:

Peace Out wrote:

Most experienced marathoners don't "expect a PB" because they know that the marathon is a crap shoot and anything can happen, no matter how hard you train. You clearly haven't run a marathon in 80 degree heat, or you wouldn't say something so ignorant.

To call the vast majority of the 27000 in Boston on Monday "experienced marathoners" is truly ignorant.

To those going for the win or trying to be first American or first master, etc the conditions are the same for everybody. If you are in that category you have prepared for all possibilities. In 2000 didn't the women's olympic marathoner come out of Juneau to win a race in similar conditions? If you want a PR skip the race, go to a faster course on a better day.

Chris Clark- Anchorage traind on a boring treadmill in the winter to acclimate to the heat.

looks like the hot weather will sidestep Boston - weather.com now has the high at 64 and weather underground at 52. 64 ain't great, but 52 is.

The only link anyone should be looking at is the one I posted from NOAA. That's it. Basically its a battle between two weather models. The GFS and ECMWF. GFS is cool, ECMWF is hot. Most meteorologists are leaning towards the ECMWF. Which means warm.

Heck, even 6/20 of the GFS runs have temperatures being 10-15C above normal on Monday....

NOAA is the most trustworthy in my opinion too. Still a lot of time to change though.

Just my $.02....

Every time I ran the marathon (13 in all, including '04) I would take the following day's prediction on weather.com at 5 days out from the marathon. Tuesday has a chance of rain & low 60's throughout the course, that's where it will probably settle by Monday.

Good luck to all running this year!

Patriot wrote:

I think the record setting heat was for April 16th but that the marathon that year was on a different day. 2004 was the hottest year ever for the Boston Marathon with highs reaching 86 degrees.

Run for the hoses

With temps in the 90s, Georgetown undergrad Jack Fultz ran through a rainbow of garden hoses to win the 1976 Boston Marathon. We take a look back at that race on its 30th anniversary.

codger wrote:

Yes, you might be 5 minutes off your PB, but you might finish top 10 in your age group. Wouldn't you get satisfaction from that?

No.

10-day forecasts have high revision levels. It is now 50-54 for 10am to noon but light winds out of the east. This implies that it will be warmer (with possible a bit different wind) well inland.As for the trees, they may be further along in leafing out than is typical - they are a month ahead in the upper Midwest.

Painful wrote:

26mi235 wrote:

8am [don't they start at 8am now?] 54 degrees, 10 am 61, wind WNW @10mph, dew point 45. If I were racing I would kill for this forecast to come to fruition. Probably one of the top 10 Bostons in terms of weather if this holds.

No, it starts at 10am. Also, b/c in Boston none of the trees have bloomed, there is no shade on the course at all.

After checking the inland forecast is warmer and with a generally westerly wind. The airport is way west and the winds might be sucked in from warm inland temperatures as the warming air rises. These forecasts may be a little unstable.