5000m World Record Splits: A Progression

ukathleticscoach wrote:

LM wrote:

Missed this part. In truth, he probably should have. I suspect he didn't realize he could run anywhere near 3:28 at this point, and thus didn't because he was afraid...or perhaps the hot start spooked him off, as he did basically maintain the gap at 3-4m for a large portion of the race.

What about the second time. He's run 3:28 twice.

Your assertion that Bekele has a faster change of pace than Farah but is somehow slower over 400m does not make sense. It's possible of course but for a distance runner much more likely the other way round.

Farah big chance against Bekele would be go for a move 2-3 laps out and that is backed up by a superior 1500 time

Good question. I don't have a good answer for you when it comes to Farah.

With regard to a middle point, that wasn't an assertion. It was just one of several possibilities I was throwing out brainstorming. I think I even wrote the same thing you did, i.e. that it would be odd for a huge engine to have great speed.

With regards to the last point, any slow race is Farah's game. He'd do best against Bekele just going hard at 400m-600m. If the race is over 13:30 it's Farah all day. Closer to 13 might depend on tactics, under 13 and I think Bekele is a dangerous.

That said, it's absolutely certain that Farah is faster than Bekele over 400/800 as well as 1500. This is because we already know Bekele is much better at 10k/endurance than Farah. If Bekele had more of an anaerobic reservoir than Farah, he would be massively better than Farah at the shorter distance. As I mentioned before, a Bekele with a Farah like 400 is definitely going sub 3:26 and sub 7:15.

Good as he is, I can't see Bekele as that sort of an athlete. The only remaining conclusion is that Farah is much faster over 400 than Bekele.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

Your assertion that Bekele has a faster change of pace than Farah but is somehow slower over 400m does not make sense. It's possible of course but for a distance runner much more likely the other way round.

It makes total sense for a distance runner. In a distance race, the person with the most energy left will have the biggest change of pace. That's why Bekele can finish a 50m with a 52 last lap, but a real 400m sprinter would be happy to finish under 18:00.

However, I think Bekele has both better sprint speed AND endurance than Farah (at their peaks).

LM wrote:

With regards to the last point, any slow race is Farah's game. He'd do best against Bekele just going hard at 400m-600m. If the race is over 13:30 it's Farah all day. Closer to 13 might depend on tactics, under 13 and I think Bekele is a dangerous.

That said, it's absolutely certain that Farah is faster than Bekele over 400/800 as well as 1500. This is because we already know Bekele is much better at 10k/endurance than Farah. If Bekele had more of an anaerobic reservoir than Farah, he would be massively better than Farah at the shorter distance. As I mentioned before, a Bekele with a Farah like 400 is definitely going sub 3:26 and sub 7:15.

Good as he is, I can't see Bekele as that sort of an athlete. The only remaining conclusion is that Farah is much faster over 400 than Bekele.

You cannot make a certainty about Bekele's ability in the 1500m. He never did a time trial like Farah did. Farah got dragged by Kiprop. Bekele ran his 3:32 1500m PR as a tactical race with a 53 second 1st lap!

Bekele has run last laps just as fast as Farah in comparable races. I don't understand why you think Farah would win so clearly in a 13:30 race. Bekele has run 52 in sub 13 races.

Bekele was possibly a 3:28, 12:30, 26:00 runner at his peak.

Absolutely, I think I hinted at this, but if not thank you for pointing out the error. I agree this could possible, and if so obviously Farah's only hope would be to position better than him in a slow race. With the exact times you give though, Farah would still be marginally faster at 400, though close enough you'd be splitting hairs at that point.

Bekele did run 3:31 in... Shanghi I think? However, I know nothing of the details of that race, but it could offer some idea. The other fact that might hint against that is Bekele never got to close to 7:20, and somebody like that would be able to scare 7:15 over 3000. The other potential argument against that is that if Bekele was a 3:28/12:30 guy, that basically means he is a more fit version of Farah. With the same speed and more fitness, he ought to have been closing some 13 low races in 50 high to 51.xx. I'm not aware of him ever unleashing an absolute barn burner of a finish like that.

On thing I want to stress is that the 52 in fast races is not indicative of having speed. The only thing that can be known by a fast finish like that in a race is that the athlete is at least marginally quicker than that. The best races to look for 400 speed are very slow races, or any times athletes have actually raced 400/800. Farah's 14:00 race with 50 last lap for instance, that was slow enough Farah had next to no anaerobic depletion at that point and could unlease more or less a maximal 400. Perhaps he could run 49.5 or something totally rested.

Back to Bekele's 52 closes, if Bekele is an aerobic monster, his closing in 52 is more a result of him having 50-51 speed, but basically not being taxed at all and being able to use all of it at the end. The above scenario you mentioned is possible, but the reasons above are the ones that make me shy away from thinking that is the most likely case.

Banker wrote:

However, I think Bekele has both better sprint speed AND endurance than Farah (at their peaks).

Cannot be discounted. It must be noted that if this were (Bekele better at 400 and 5000/10000 than Farah) the case Bekele is at least a 3:27 (probably more like 3:25.xx if you're talking 12:30/26:00 endurance) and 7:15 guy.

Possible, but seems really, really fast even for Bekele.

Where do I start with your post?

➡Mo ran 1500m in Monaco in 2013 & 2015. Both times he ran a very impressive 3:28-high. Both times he was well behind Kiprop by a very long way, in both occasions Kiprop ran 3:27 & 3:26. When Mo ran 3:28.81 he was drafted by Ndiku through the last two laps, on the other occasion a gap did emerge between him and Kiprop, so he ran 0.12s slower, wow. This is the same nonsense discussed the 2012 Paris 5000m last lap.

➡so if Mo is capable of 3:27.00, that means Kiprop too must be capable of 3:24.88. But El G and Lagat are faster than Kiprop, so what are they capable of? It is Venti's nonsense feedback loop that he speeds up every 5 years.

➡the Monaco track seems to be 2s faster than other tracks over 1500m.

➡I very much doubt that Gebresoisauce is faster than Ndiku over 1500m. At best 3:29, as somebody else stated Geb & Bekele regularly had better sprints, I don't think I ever saw either run faster than 3:32 flat out.

➡"Calculo blatantly states not only his assumptions, but breaks them down piece by piece." No he doesn't! He makes up his figures, based on his own biases, when you ask him to verify this with proof he just gets nasty.

➡"If you disagree with 3:27, why? Is it because you don't think 0.7s per lap is correct for drafting? If not, why?" I explained above, it is only 1500m. The onus is not on me to prove drafting gains over only 1500m actually the onus is on you and Venti to provide scientific evidence.

➡we are unlikely to see a sub 12:40 race in the next 20 years, let alone 12:45.

I am also concerned that you may have been hypnotized.

because he has been crushed in last laps of 3'32/3'33 races by choge & komen-2

no

he usually made his kick from 500 out perhaps later

you keep using this nonsense run

can't you think ???

mo ran this after end of long season when tired & having some fun

it was run on totally miserable day, raining & probably cold

then huge issues with results :

what was the wind reading ???

it couda been run into a 3m/s wind !!!

then serious issues with timing :

the clock shows 0.4s on it & the guys are barely outta the blocks !!!

the suspicion is that the clock was at least 3 tenths too slow, probably some issue with gun as clock running significantly & guys have hardly started

to use 12.98 as serious representative of mo's speed in season peak shape on dry 90F day with 0 wind & unquestioned timing is utter nonsense

~ 12-flat/low looks much nearer the mark for his actual ability

no

12-flat/low is plenty of explosive power for a distance/middle-distance guy

eh ???

when did he run a relay after '11 when he joined sal & transformed into a superman ???

Some specification about the current athletics on track.

1) In the last 8 years, all the best European meetings of DL lost from 20% to 50% of their budget. For that reason, the prizes for every event became, year after year, less important (now are in USD again : 10,000 - 6,000 - 4,000 - 3,000 - 2,500 - 2,000 - 1,500 - 1,000 for the first 8 in the field), and organizers cut the budget for good pacers

2) For the same reason, today there are no more athletes having appearance fees in DL (with the exception of some star, like Usain Bolt, Van Niekerk or Rudisha in shape, and something small for Asbel Kiprop and some girl). So, today athletes for 12:50 or 12:55 in 5000m have to run for free, looking at their prizes only (In the famous 5000m of Paris 2012, Thomas Longosiwa, 5th in 12'49", went home with 2,500 USD, and Kenenisa Bekele, 9th with 12'55", with 500 USD, appearance apart because... is Bekele !).

3) All the WR in the past were prepared for long time, under all points of view : technical training (since were a top goal of the season), agreements with the organizers about appearance fee and bonuses, and agreement about PERSONAL pacers, with a good budget for pacers. So, the races looking at WR were prepared in perfect way, and nothing was casual.

4) Now, we don't have in the field anybody like Haile, or Komen, or Bekele, or Shaheen, so it's completely useless to spend money for fast races, when the athletes well know they CAN'T beat any WR, and the goal is the position only. Some of these athletes are already faster than Songok (who ran 12'46"), but of sure not able to look at 12'37" or 26'17", and the continue decrease of times brings everybody to lose the right mentality about times. It's not a problem of doping, it's a problem of pace and mentality. In the past, we had a lot of athletes of medium value able running under 13' and under 27', in races well paced with big groups together. And also today, when somebody is able to organize a competition well paced, it's possible to run fast in 10000m (how many athletes were under 27' in Eugene in 2011, or in Bruxelles when Bekele won in 26'43" with few weeks of preparation only ?)

5) The opposite we can say about Marathon. Now, it's normal to see big groups, well paced (not in then US races, that prefer competitions organized like Championships, without pacers), running under 62' the first half. But in 1985 Steve Jones, white runner from UK training at sea level, using as doping beer only, ran ALONE in Chicago 2:17:13, after going, WITHOUT ANY PACER, in 61'43" in the first half. What this guy could run today, in the middle of a group running 62', paced till 30 km in the right way ? Maybe under 2:05, of sure well under 2:06.

People must understand that the big performances in middle and long distances depend, in great part, on the AMBIENCE, the level of the group and the ORGANIZATION, that has more influence in beating records than every kind of blood doping.

Ron Clarke, and nobody can suppose he was doped, destroyed the WR in one competition of 8" (from 13'24" to 13'16"), and the WR of 10000m, already owned, of 46" (from 28'15" to 27'39"). With your meter of evaluation, he needed to start to use massive doping AFTER his previous record, for improving so much..... but this is the first thought of all people who don't know anything about the REAL athletics at top level, and all the reasons because there are periods of fast races and periods without records (first reason : where there is, or there is no more, money).

Error in typing : Steve Jones ran 2:07:13, not 2:17:13, obviously.

And the WR was hold by another white, Carlos Lopes fro Portugal, in 2:07:12, when was already 37.

But of course, if you are Kenyan, and run under 2:10, today you MUST be doped.....

So you are talking about the money in the sport not being an incentive?

Could it be the globalization of the sport being felt just like in the manufacturing industry? For example a Kenyan netting $25k p.a. can live well but a Westerner cannot live on that.

2) is a little bit of a stretch, if you can run 12:55 regularly you will win $10,000 in each race and the $50,000 Diamond league bonus and the $60,000 for winning the world champs. So the financial incentives are still there to run fast-ish. Only Edris is capable of 12:55 @ the moment.

4) you have totally lost me here.

5) well there is only two distinct explanations Renato, if you look at US city marathons, the times from the late 1970s to now have barely improved. Times by whites 30 years ago were faster than Kamworor/Kipsang in NY the other day and they had financial incentives to run faster than 2:10. So either the Western marathon heroes from 1976-1990 were (1) better trained or (2) cheats/druggies.

Ventolin all your comments about head wind timing etc are completely undermined by none sprinters running well ahead of Farah in the same race. Anthony Joshua ran 11.53 and Grabarz was also under 12.

If you are giving Mo a second does that mean a 17 stone boxer can run 10.5!

As for your claim that Bekele went from 500m here he is waiting until 200m before kicking against El G and only just getting beat.

https://youtu.be/IBegBqZUHiw

Renato you explained and I agree with reasons for not running do fast now. But what caused the sudden explosion of times in 90's was the money not there in the few years previously?

One last question what would you estimate as 400m times for Bekele and Farah?

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

4) you have totally lost me here.

I think he was very clear. What didn't you understand?

Thank you for your post, Renato.

Oh and Subway, regarding 5), I am from a country with some of those "Western marathon heroes from 1976-1990". Guess what? I trained with them then and I see the "elite" training today and yes, it's different.

Some were caught using PEDs in the 1990s, some have been caught in the last two years, so obviously PED use existed then and it exists now. But the training was different.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

Renato you explained and I agree with reasons for not running do fast now. But what caused the sudden explosion of times in 90's was the money not there in the few years previously?

Hi.

Not Renato, obviously, but in my country, a very poor country in the 80s, athletics (and football) were the poor people's sports because they required very little investment. Big training groups were formed and healthy rivalry existed.

You probably had that in the UK one or two decades earlier.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

4) you have totally lost me here.

I see that as a vicious cycle.

a) Yes to this, obviously:

" it's completely useless to spend money for fast races, when the athletes well know they CAN'T beat any WR"

b) that brings less interest, thus less money into DL and other track events, thus less money into pacing,

and

c) the athletes run either slower than they could,

which

d) reinforces point a).

However, I would not see lack of money as the key explanation for the lack of fast athletes, which brings me back to page 1 on this thread: a certain progression was expected, for so much improves from year to year, from training knowledge to nutrition to shoes to training facilities in Africa and so on. Instead we go backwards.

Do you understand that you speak about ONE athlete able to win everything (so an athlete of the caliber of Haile, or Komen, or Kenenisa, or Shaheen) who now doesn't exist ? How many different athletes win the competitions of DL today ?

Do you know how many competitions of DL there were in 2017 for 5000m ?

1- Eugene (27.05) : winner Mo Farah in 13:00.70

2- Lausanne (6.07) : winner Mukhtar Edris in 12:55.23

3- Zurich (24.08) DL final where only position was important : winner Mo Farah with 13:06.05 (Edris 13:06.09)

So, do you think it's possible to have a good income from similar situation ?

How many athletes were competitive in 2017 ? We wait for Cheptegei in the future, but in two years he becomes the best in the World in HM, and is another leaving the track (apart some 10000m in WCh and Olympics).

About the point of Marathon, the competitions of 30 years ago started FASTER than the competitions of today without rabbits. Today, the marathons rabbited go very fast (normally under 62:00 the first half) while the marathon without pacers, like in US, go very slow because are tactical only (and there are NO bonuses for times, nor in Chicago and nor in Boston). I don't think athletes like Shorter, or Rodgers, or Dixon, or Steve Jones, or Carlos Lopes, were doped (with what today we call doping). At those times, doping could be some stimulant (amphetamine) or Micoren for heart (practically useless, but with good placebo effect...) , not blood self transfusion, starting in Sweden in 1968 but not used in Countries different from Finland till the beginning of 1980 (and I have a lot of evidence this practice worked for a small percentage of athletes only, and NEVER for marathon runners).

The real reason because the US marathon were fast 30-40 years ago, is that were THE ONLY MARATHON IN THE WORLD, apart FUKUOKA. So, everybody needed to use those marathon for trying to better the WR (Salazar, Dixon, Rodgers) because there were no other chances.

Now, athletes of top level can have appearance fees from 100,000 to 200,000 USD, plus the prize (that is now only more 30% of their income), and don't have any other goal, in the Majors, than the victory.

Different is the situation of Berlin : it's not a case that everybody tries the WR there. Less appearance, big bonus for WR, fast course with normal good weather. Athletes today have many choices, and don't waste energies pursuing something not possible.

The 2015 race has been discussed. Farah got weak drafting there. The 2013 race is similar, he was tucked in for first 300, but then for the next lap, much like in 2015, he was about 3m back of the guy in front of him for the next 300. After that, down the homestretch of lap two, he takes the front of that group and runs drafted the rest of the race. 2015 had slightly better drafting (probably, but this is pretty ambiguous and speculatory). Neither had great.

Times were similar, as conditions were similar. Moreover, reading into tenths of a second is rarely helpful as athletes can have good days and bad days, and be several seconds or more away from their best.

Why? You don't look at Kiprop's performance compared to Mo, unless they ran virtually the same race. Kiprop ran both his Monoco races tucked in behind a pacer till somewhere around 1k or so, which is standard expected pacing for 1500. Based on those races, there is no reason to think Kiprop could run any faster than 3:26.

This is possible. Truthfully, I doubt it. I think it's just the product of getting a fast race together and going for it. It's alludes to what Canova said, it's the one race of the year that's gone fast and athletes know that and come prepared to run fast. Most races are slower, because they go out slower and slow further once pacer drops.

If this is so, then did Geb and Bekele also have better sprints than Mo? If so, do you think they were much faster than Mo over 1500? If not, then I'd ask you how Mo is better than them over 1500, especially since we know he has not the endurance of either of those two men.

Huh? That scientific evidence is already there. I didn't realize this was in question at all, but if it is provided evidence is not a problem. Drafting in cycling has been analyzed to sh1t, and it's been shown to be similar for running, you save about 30% of the energy spent against the wind. Obviously, this means drafting becomes much, much greater as the speed of the race increases due to the cubic effect of wind speed on aerodynamic resistance.

In other words, if you're running at 12mph, let's say that's 350w, you might be spending 300 of that to overcome gravity/friction, and 50w to overcome wind resistance. Drafting will save about 30% of that wind resistance component, so sitting in your are spending about 335w instead of 350. Bump that race speed up to 16mph and it might be 450w total, with 350w to overcome ground/friction, and 100w for wind resistance; which means a drafted runner is expending only 420w.

Other way around I assume.

The 12:40 I agree on. The 12:45 I do not. We don't get many, but I can't see us having not a single race where pacers hit 3k in

7:40-7:45 or so and 4k in 10:15 or so.

We already know all these guys can run at least in low 12:50s, with the better ones likely faster than that. This again is because on good days these guys are closing low 13:00 races in 52-54 seconds. If you're only capable of 12:55 or god forbid 13:00...there is no way in hell you can close a race at 53.

Not sure there is anybody out there right now who has given me reason to believe they can go low 12:40, but good athletes come along once or twice a decade, and the good ones are, like Gebremeskel, good for something 12:40 low to mid.

He's basically just saying the races go out slow. If you take 12:37 Bekele, and the pace only gets him to bell lap in 12:10, he isn't running under 13'. This is the case for almost all races today, and it's the reason we see so few sub 13s. You can count on one hand the number of races that have gone through 3k in 7:50 or quicker and stayed through 4k in faster than 10:30.

It just doesn't happen, the athletes most of the time let the pacer go, or once the pacer drops around 3k they usually run a really slow km because nobody wants to self sacrifice and drive the pace.

Main line point is that there are few sub 13 races not because most athletes can't run sub 13, but because the races are never fast enough. Most of the time they don't follow pacers, and almost EVERY time, nobody wants to lead around 3k once pacers have dropped

Options one and two you listed are both valid possibilities. There is also a third option though, which is:

3) Racers in the past wanted to run fast times and were going hard straight from the gun because the American races were your only opportunity to run fast and challenge records (no oversee big paced races). Athletes now already have paced races for running fast, and just want to cash their check. Nobody wants to run hard for the first 1/5 or 2/3 of the race just to be a glorified pacemaker.

As a result, they run much slower through half, at which point you can't make up the lost time. If I am a 2:03 marathoner, and I run through half in 1:15, even if I close with 59 I still only run 2:14, well off my marathon capabilities. Same things happening in BW.

They have financial incentives to run faster, but even greater financial incentives to play it safe and slow for the win. If a sub 2:05/2:06 in NY was worth several million regardless of final placing...I'd bet my life you'd see times like that.