5000m World Record Splits: A Progression

that is entirely due to elite 5k/3k guys not getting often enough into fast 1500 races & running their race by blasting it from gun instead trying to outkick big-time milers

mo has run 3'28 & 2nd one virtually undrafted to bell as detached from Asbel

2nd set of pacers this run, specifically for mo, he couda expected better clocking by ~ 2.75 laps * 0.7s/lap for drafting -> 1.93s -> 3'28.93 - 1.93 =

3'27.00 !!!

watch mo carefully

from gun to bell, where is the specific drafting from designated pacer who is supposed to be directly ahead of him by 1 stride ???

mo ran this undrafted in a total vacuum behind Asbel

if sal had brains to pay for 2nd set of pacers for mo to bell, he wouda been looking at 1.93s faster for a clocking of 3'27-flat !!!

if mo is capable of that gebremeskel was entitled to better, thus definitely into 3'26s

in addition the other elite 5k guys of last coupa decades shoud not have been million miles behind mo over 1500 if running similar flat-out route-1 race, meaning 3'28/3'29/3'30

canova himself reckons cherono was capable of 3'28, which may actually be ungenerous

the 3k i'll discuss below

the fitting work perfectly, it is just that the top 5k guys don't get to run a 1500 in diamond league races & they never bother to hammer it from gun otherwise we woud see 3'28/3'29/3'30

you shoud believe it for the rest

1500 discussed above

as for 3k, let's go back to Komen

in '96 he ran 3'34.17 which was a joke & definitely tactical run with no good pacing & he didn't try to blast it

this is proven by fact winner just ahead of him was hicham !!! in 3'33.45

thus slow race tactically & it's obvious Komen was hugely faster than 3'34 in '96

then we have his 5k that year of 12'45.09 which geb slowed down deliberately in latter part to preserve his WR & hope to outkick Komen which he coudn't

Komen couda gone several secs faster than 12'45 that day

so we shoud be looking at ~ 3'30/12'40 for him in '96

then we have idea of speed from here :

we can use that 800

i doubt he was fully rested for it as per attempting zurich-800, so some chunks to come off it & also i doubt he got any drafting for it & likely solo gun to tape

i think you shoud look for 1'47-flat for his speed then in a 1-off "perfect zurich-800"

a very prelim line of fit for him in '96 :

50.75 / 1'47.00

->

3'29.98

7'20.58

12'39.63

i really shoud try slight variations off the 400/800 when i have time as he probably was 1'46-mid/high ideally in "zurich-800" & his 3k best was unrested with commentator saying he looked "tied" running 13-flat just 44-hours before & also that 3k had ridiculous opening lap of 57+

however, that line of fit gives you a "flavor" of what his hypothetical 3k shouda been in '96 & what i wouda ~ expected him to run in rieti if he'd got a "perfect run, which he actually didn't in terms of rest for it & opening lap

if method applies to him perfectly, why on earth shoud it not apply to any other elites ?!

from above you can see why if others got perfect run

kennster couda shaved fraction off, geb just about there, hicham similarly very close, mo & gebremeskel couda annihilated it as their 3'26/3'27 speed compensates for any possible fractionally non-12'40

correct

when i have time i'll repost estimates

one thing that will shock you is that IIRC geb i got as having only about 50+ speed & kennster only 51+ !!!

kennster wouda been utterly annihilated by mo/gebremeskel in a 400 race

his huge kick was parallax error primarliy because in fast or slow 5ks his huge endurance coud get him to bring nearly all of his 51+ ability to last lap

however, kennster's actual 400 speed was crap compared to some other 5k guys just that his huge endurance disguised this in last lap burn-ups

Ventolin what evidence do you have that Mo way faster than Bekele over 400m? Mo always had to lead it out from a couple of laps to win whereas Bekele could leave it to last 200m.

Actual evidence on Mo's side 12.98 100m. Whatever excuse anyone comes up with that does not show explosive power. Then he did several relays and never split faster than 49

And one more thing.

Mo did have the perfect pacer in that race- Kiprop!

If he was capable of the times you mentioned he could have just slotted in behind Kiprop.

calculo wrote:

if sal had brains to pay for 2nd set of pacers for mo to bell, he wouda been looking at 1.93s faster for a clocking of 3'27-flat !!!

if mo is capable of that gebremeskel was entitled to better, thus definitely into 3'26s

Classic you should go into standup comedy, because that ⤴is hysterically laughable. When Mo ran 3:28.9 he looked embarrassed, guilty and confused all at the same time. +2s is a massive amount to make up, 3.53m per lap. If you look at that race he was already fully stretched.

I like watching those splits of all them world records. Interesting to see how they were paced, so you can literally wonder what optimal times they will have run. Does any one have mile splits for all the marathon world records. I would really like to see all those. The older ones would be really fun to see, because literally they used to run completely different. They went as hard as possible to lead races, in the past, so the splits will be very dramatic compared to these days. I wish Bekele got the latest world record in Berlin in 2016. If his splits were different, he would have done it. I heard that Zatopek's olympic marathon, the early leader was the than world record holder, and he was 10 minutes ahead of world record pace when Zatopek overtook him. Is that evan possible? Splits from the past would be fascinating to watch for the marathon. For 5000m literally Komen was probably optimal, and shows that, that was an optimal world record. Some of the others were differently paced, and could have being faster if you look at the varying splits. Bekele literally was a low 12:30 runner.

You are kidding, right? Ramzi demonstrated quite clearly how drugged up one could compete all the way at least until 2008, when he was finally stopped.

Or do you think he was clean in Helsinki? Then read and weep:

What happened in 2008? They caught him with CERA.

+1 ? And the positive for CERA was from an IC sample from Beijing (not confirmed until 09 with the help of Roche), so he was running hot in the prelims right up through the final (imagine that. Lol). And what a ridiculous final: holds off Kiprop at the line (even eases up) while destroying a world class field by 40 m! Anyone that thinks a carefully structured EPO program with a high-responder doesn't produce remarkable results...think again (oops...I better shut-up before rekrunner swings by. ?).

He might say Ramzi ran an unremarkable slow 3:32.94, closed in an unremarkable 53 seconds, beat Kiprop by half a meter, and the rest of the field by 10 meters.

High-Octane Dopers wrote:

+1 ? And the positive for CERA was from an IC sample from Beijing (not confirmed until 09 with the help of Roche), so he was running hot in the prelims right up through the final (imagine that. Lol). And what a ridiculous final: holds off Kiprop at the line (even eases up) while destroying a world class field by 40 m! Anyone that thinks a carefully structured EPO program with a high-responder doesn't produce remarkable results...think again (oops...I better shut-up before rekrunner swings by. ?).

Dude. Can you stop with the sh1t posting?

I realize calculo bashing is popular, but ffs your counter post here is horrible. It's nothing more "than hurr durr that estimate is ridiculous, you're stupid". This is somewhat fine if calculo would have just said "Mo should have ran 3:27.00". But he didn't, he wrote:

Calculo blatantly states not only his assumptions, but breaks them down piece by piece. If you disagree with 3:27, why? Is it because you don't think 0.7s per lap is correct for drafting? If not, why? He gives a reasoned argument and the best you can do is that garbage? Don't waste people's time even writing that man...

In terms of my own thoughts: My only caveat here would be that for the first part of the race Mo is behind Kiprop by a stride or so, perhaps 3-4m back. This still gets some draft, the speeds are higher but cycling you can really notice sitting behind someone at a bike length or bike length and a half; it's significantly less than if you're right on the wheel, but it's noticeable. The airflow tends to move in a teardrop shape and taper back some distance. Mo wasn't getting full draft, but he was getting some. If we say only about a quarter, that gives Mo something like 0.4-0.5 less savings than calculo's original estimate; putting Mo around 3:27.5 with ideal drafting. Worst case would be getting about 2/3 of the draft (experience to me suggests it's not that much) and maybe around 3:28 low.

Hard to argue with that. Gebremeskel being able to close as fast (or actually faster accounting for his positioning) strongly suggests an FRC similar to Farah's, and we already know he had at least low 12:40 ability in absolute worst case.

The olympic 5000, among others, was so slow it gave us a huge indication of FRC, nobody had their tank depleted from such a slow pace and it was almost purely about positioning and anaerobic ability.

Had the race been a 13:10 race that played out similarly I think there could be some doubt as to whether Gebremeskel might just be a huge aerobic monster, but a 13 high race makes the competition almost purely a test of anaerobic capacity.

trek walker wrote:

He might say Ramzi ran an unremarkable slow 3:32.94, closed in an unremarkable 53 seconds, beat Kiprop by half a meter, and the rest of the field by 10 meters.

High-Octane Dopers wrote:

+1 ? And the positive for CERA was from an IC sample from Beijing (not confirmed until 09 with the help of Roche), so he was running hot in the prelims right up through the final (imagine that. Lol). And what a ridiculous final: holds off Kiprop at the line (even eases up) while destroying a world class field by 40 m! Anyone that thinks a carefully structured EPO program with a high-responder doesn't produce remarkable results...think again (oops...I better shut-up before rekrunner swings by. ?).

LOL ... indeed .. 40m my a$$

ukathleticscoach wrote:

Ventolin what evidence do you have that Mo way faster than Bekele over 400m? Mo always had to lead it out from a couple of laps to win whereas Bekele could leave it to last 200m.

Actual evidence on Mo's side 12.98 100m. Whatever excuse anyone comes up with that does not show explosive power. Then he did several relays and never split faster than 49

I haven't seen his lines, but my guess would be that Ventolin doesn't have Mo at faster than 49. He ran about 50 point for that 14:00 5k. That race was also slow enough to be pure FRC. Farah's 400 there should be virtually identical to one he could run open. Maybe he runs a smidge faster fresh and rested, but that's more or less Farah's 400 ability. I would say 49.0 as a generous max.

The 12.9 100m isn't indicative of much, because we don't know other distance guys 100m FAT times. Especially given how much technique and acceleration play into it.

Most importantly, there is something that needs to be said about speed. It really has two components. One is pure max speed, the maximum power you can get down over a stride or two.

The other part is FRC, or anaerobic capacity. You can think of speed as the maximum burn rate of FRC. It's possible, though uncommon, to have someone that could run say 11.00 for 100m, but 400m in only 55s. The would mean they have a great combination of force production/efficiency, but not much an anaerobic reserve and so gas quickly.

Another factor that can come into play in distance races is the ability to shift gears. You can have two guys with similar top speeds and 400 capabilities, but one guy can jump from 60s pace to 50s pace more quickly than the other guy.

Relating that back to the discussion about Farah/Bekele speeds and how they could close races, I'd consider a few possibilities:

1) Farah could have done well going from 200m, but thought it riskier than going from longer, as 200m is not likely enough time to utilize all of Farah's FRC, and by taking the best position early at the bell he can force runners wide, or if they want to draft then they will eventually have to run 102m vs his 100m on the finishing straight to win

2) Bekele could change gears better than Farah. Farah may have been faster, but if Bekele had the ability to jump extremely well; perhaps because he was fresher (just speculation there), then even with slower speed that jump might have been enough to do it.

3) Bekele was one of those guys with more pure speed than Farah, but a slower 400. Combine that with a great gear change and the freshness that comes from being as strong as he was and you have a dangerous recipe. I'm a little doubtful of this though, because usually the guys with the best raw speed are not the aerobic monsters.

The other piece of evidence that suggests this is Bekele's 26:17, and now 2:03. If Bekele was close to Farah in 400 ability, but also had 26:17 for 10k, then you'd be looking to some truly ridiculous times at 1500/3000/5000. Probably sub 12:30, sub 7:15, and sub 3:26 if you had that combination. Bekele has pretty damn amazing, but I don't think anyone here thinks he was that amazing, which is the kind of combination 3:28 and 26:17 would likely create.

wtfunny wrote:

trek walker wrote:

He might say Ramzi ran an unremarkable slow 3:32.94, closed in an unremarkable 53 seconds, beat Kiprop by half a meter, and the rest of the field by 10 meters.

LOL ... indeed .. 40m my a$$

Pretty much this. Ramzi obviously doped, but this was just not a strong race. 53.15, especially with Ramzi only wide on turn 1, is really not that special of a finish. Everybody else just wasn't on their game.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

And one more thing.

Mo did have the perfect pacer in that race- Kiprop!

If he was capable of the times you mentioned he could have just slotted in behind Kiprop.

Missed this part. In truth, he probably should have. I suspect he didn't realize he could run anywhere near 3:28 at this point, and thus didn't because he was afraid...or perhaps the hot start spooked him off, as he did basically maintain the gap at 3-4m for a large portion of the race.

uppity wrote:

wtfunny wrote:

LOL ... indeed .. 40m my a$$

Everybody else just wasn't on their game.

Almost as if they were afraid of the new testing....

hoi polloi wrote:

uppity wrote:

Everybody else just wasn't on their game.

Almost as if they were afraid of the new testing....

Exactly. B

There were few cycling positives for CERA in 08. And some of those riders have said that they were led to believe that CERA was completely undetectable in urine and possibly detected only in a blood sample. Ramzi simply fell for that and was glowing right through Beijing. Keep in mind Roche had to help WADA develope a test for CERA.

wtfunny wrote:

trek walker wrote:

He might say Ramzi ran an unremarkable slow 3:32.94, closed in an unremarkable 53 seconds, beat Kiprop by half a meter, and the rest of the field by 10 meters.

LOL ... indeed .. 40m my a$$

Hey chump....other than Kiprop hanging in there, who won the race by a wide margin? FFS, look at tape! That's such a wide gap my old aching body could walk across the lanes between Ramzi & that group. ?. You're probably a Ramzi fan and are just pissed off that your boy got caught! ?

Chump City wrote:

wtfunny wrote:

LOL ... indeed .. 40m my a$$

Hey chump....other than Kiprop hanging in there, who won the race by a wide margin? FFS, look at tape! That's such a wide gap my old aching body could walk across the lanes between Ramzi & that group. ?. You're probably a Ramzi fan and are just pissed off that your boy got caught! ?

Not a Ramzi fan ... but 40m??? That's insane.

wtfunny wrote:

Chump City wrote:

Hey chump....other than Kiprop hanging in there, who won the race by a wide margin? FFS, look at tape! That's such a wide gap my old aching body could walk across the lanes between Ramzi & that group. ?. You're probably a Ramzi fan and are just pissed off that your boy got caught! ?

Not a Ramzi fan ... but 40m??? That's insane.

You sound like one. The point being here is whether or not it's 30 m or 32 ft, or whatever, that's a significant gap rocket fuel Ramzi had at an Olympic final with most of world's best present. It's just about as bad as the gap that doped to the gills Savinova had over Semenya & the rest of field at London ?.

This is extremely interesting, especially the 2005 off-scores. So Ramzi had OFF-scores of 157.8 and 148 on 10 and 14 August 2005. It makes you wonder on what day he took his sauce (whether epo or a reinfusion or a gas) because his OFF-score could have been well above 160 and perhaps nearer to 170 at its peak reading. Which is simply off the charts.