Lower Bound wrote:
I looked at the results for a couple of large 5Ks. Here's what I found:
Race for the Cure: DC
Men 20-24. 181 finishers. Median time=29:01
Men 25-29. 339 finishers. Median time=28:53
Dallas YMCA Turkey Trot
Men 20-24. 175 finishers. Median time=29:56
Men 25-29. 201 finishers. Median time=30:55
If we plug these times into the McMillan pace calculator, we get 400m times of 1:40-1:50.
This is obviously *NOT* a random sample of males 20-29. This is a sample of males 20-29 who run at least one 5K. So the real answer is almost certainly going to be *higher* than 1:40-1:50. That means that 70, and even 90, are way too low.
I don't think these finish time calculators work for something like this. They assume you're in great aerobic shape, and a 400 doesn't require that much aerobic fitness.
Even if you use two events that are very comparable, the calculator says a 28 minute 5k is equivalent to a 58 minute 10k. I doubt there are many people with those two PRs, though. The people who have the aerobic fitness to run a 10k that close to twice their 5k probably run the 5k a lot faster than 28 minutes.
I know for sure that the relative difference between my out of shape and in shape times grows drastically as the distance increases, and I think that's pretty normal.