How many miles to sub three?

that worked for me the first time, with similar numbers in prior training. Though I think I did peak slightly higher, into the high 50s/low 60s.

SUB THREE GUY? wrote:

I was thinking 40-50 MPW would get me [to sub 3 marathon].

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated

Thanks

Perhaps 40-50 mpw consistently for 6 months to a year. But it's not like you'll magically be faster after a few weeks of higher mileage. On fairly low mileage like 40-50 mpw you'd have to be doing most of it fairly close to your race pace or faster. And to be able to do that without injuring yourself it would take a while. Also, consider that the marathon would be a half week's worth of running for you. It would take more out of you than someone on higher mileage.

Of course it all depends on a lot of things. My PRs are about the same as you but I'm a few years older. I personally am shooting for a sub 3 next fall, and I've been averaging a little over 50mpw since October. I plan to keep the mileage here and just put in several months of it, to where it becomes relaxed and fast enough for my current goals. I'm pretty sure I can do it so probably you too.

There are dozens of threads on sub 3 marathon training, including many discussions of necessary mileage. Lots of the threads have detailed, thoughtful discussions. Take a look . . .

SUB THREE GUY? wrote:

My first one was four years ago, I ran 3:28 off about 25 MPW average. I am 31, male, 6'1", 165lbs, with recent PR's of 31:06 for 5 miles and 1:27:30 for the half.

I was thinking 40-50 MPW would get me there.

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated

Thanks

Very similar situation here. I'm 6' 150 lbs. It took me 70 mpw to get under 3.

In my late 20s and early 30s, I ran 3 marathons in 3 years in the low 3:20s running about 15-20 miles a week (mostly one long run). The next few years, I decided to train, and ran weekly mileage of 40-50 and brought my time down to 3:07 - 3:09. My half marathon time was 1:25.

To get below 3 hours took 4 more attempts (3:03, 3:30 - blew up, 3:01, and finally sub 3). To finally get over the 3 hour threshold, I was running 70 miles a week. My half marathon time was 1:22 during this time. I followed Pfitzinger's Advanced Marathoning.

If your trajectory is like mine, and it sounds like it could be, 40-50 MPW will get you to a little under 3:10 but nowhere near sub 3. By the way, lots of letsrun knuckleheads will come on here claiming to run sub 3 on minimal training. Don't buy it unless you are a truly rare talent.

25 mpw - 3:25 (1:35 half)

30 mpw - 3:15 (1:33 half)

45 mpw - 3:10 (1:31 half)

80 mpw - 2:59 (1:25 half)

The closest I came in under 3h was a 2:58 in Boston. The last 12 weeks before that Marathon showed an average of 36mpw. Prior to that, it had been less (recovery from another Marathon).

It all depends how much talent you have. I never ran a Marathon over 3:10 so I'd assume you'd have to put in a bit more work.

For the average talented runner, 50mpw should get you there.

Sounds like me also. I posted my progression, but left out a few marathons 3:10 - 3:20 all on about 40 mpw. I can say in all truthfullness, there was NO WAY IN HECK I could have broken 3 on 40-50 mpw. Even now to repeat it, I would still need at least 70.

To train for that time will take away alot for other activities. That is quite a bit of work for no money or real glory, but it is a great personal accomplishment.

BostonSub3 wrote:

The closest I came in under 3h was a 2:58 in Boston. The last 12 weeks before that Marathon showed an average of 36mpw. Prior to that, it had been less (recovery from another Marathon).

It all depends how much talent you have. I never ran a Marathon over 3:10 so I'd assume you'd have to put in a bit more work.

For the average talented runner, 50mpw should get you there.

sigh... How does this help?

Figure out how much you can train, and do that. Then run the marathon. It's much more enjoyable if you take the steps in that order.

Honey Badger wrote:

sigh... How does this help?

The message that I was trying to bring across was that it varies from person to person, depending on their talent.

Anyway, I would focus first on bringing that HM time down. That good old x2+10min rule. Run 1:24:xx first and then try to run a sub 3 Marathon.

I did not mention I have a pretty substantial endurance background, 20 years of high level marathon canoe racing. Our races are 2-10 hours in a wack. I started training for my first marathon as cross training. The 3:28 was off only 15 weeks of running 25MPW. I never ran before at all(no HS, no college). I was on sub 3:10 pace through about 18 then I blew up. I feel like is I doubled that mileage and ran a good base (6 months or so) then did some specific work it could happen.

BostonSub3 wrote:

For the average talented runner, 50mpw should get you there.

Not sure what you mean by "average talented runner." I think that there are very few talented runners who could run a sub 3 on 50mpw. One exception: former college runners who recently finished school.

I think if you are 30ish or older, you need to be a truly unique talent to run sub3 on 50 MPW. I have two friends with varsity letters in track and cross country from a Big 10 university. (They were not champions, but they were good enough to letter -- are they "average" talented runners?) Between the two of them, they made 5 attempts in their early/mid 30s at a sub 3, averaging 30-50 mpw. Best time of the 5 attempts: 3:09. Worst time: DNF, multiple.

BostonSub3 wrote:

The closest I came in under 3h was a 2:58 in Boston. The last 12 weeks before that Marathon showed an average of 36mpw.

Kip?

SUB THREE GUY? wrote:

I did not mention I have a pretty substantial endurance background, 20 years of high level marathon canoe racing. Our races are 2-10 hours in a wack. I started training for my first marathon as cross training. The 3:28 was off only 15 weeks of running 25MPW. I never ran before at all(no HS, no college). I was on sub 3:10 pace through about 18 then I blew up. I feel like is I doubled that mileage and ran a good base (6 months or so) then did some specific work it could happen.

I've trained with a lot of marathoners. It is hard to know your talent level because your running has been so limited. My guess is that you have sub3 talent, but it is hard to know the training you would need to do get there. I would say more in the range of 70+ mpw. I will also say that of all the marathoners I've trained with (dozens at least), it is maybe 1 in 10 who can run a sub 3 on anything less than 60 miles a week. I agree that the exception is guys right out of college who ran for their college teams. They can run sub3 on minimal additional training because they have the base training and youth.

diminishing marginal returns wrote:

Not sure what you mean by "average talented runner." I think that there are very few talented runners who could run a sub 3 on 50mpw. One exception: former college runners who recently finished school.

Sorry, I mean the average 30yo club runner. Of course, that implies he already belongs to "the 1%" of runners. :)

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