First of all, I love reading these forums. People get so heated. I hope this topic doesn't start any arguments.
Now, on to my question. I know this gets debated a lot, but I want to see if anyone thinks it is possible for me. From my subject, you can tell I want to break 3 hrs (preferably a 2:55 - NY qualifier). Here are some things to know:
I ran a 20.1 mile long run recently in around 2:24. Started off at a nice sustainable moderate pace and pushed the last 5 to 7 minutes (fast finish).
I trained between 50 to 65 MPW the last 8-9 hard weeks (not including rest weeks).
I ran a 1h28m half into strong headwinds (30-40 mph gusts) the last 5 miles. Was previously on pace for 1:24/25.
I'm 28 and trained for about 6 months and have previous endurance racing experience (5 hr half Ironman with a 1:34 half marathon).
Race conditions should be 60-65 degrees at start and just over 70 at the finish.
Thoughts? Can I do it? Come on experts, let me know! I think I can do it...prove me right or wrong. I'll follow up with my race time afterwards.