If you were Ryan Hall, would you start the trials at 2:08 pace?

#4 is ponintless. There are nearly 7 months between the Trials race and the Olympics. I don't see how recovery time from a hard race is going to be a factor.

I think a sub 2:09 pace would be the smartest plan of action as it gets rid of 98% of the field by 35k. It depends if he wants to try surging or just an even pace. I'd love to see a sub 64 half to break everyone but realistically i would be surprised to see a sub 65. Who knows with Ryan but I'm sure he's looking for he win.

just passing by. wrote:

#4 is ponintless. There are nearly 7 months between the Trials race and the Olympics. I don't see how recovery time from a hard race is going to be a factor.

He has the rim-rim-rim Grand Canyon run to consider too.

Is anyone familiar with his walk break strategy?

WWRD wrote:

I think a sub 2:09 pace would be the smartest plan of action as it gets rid of 98% of the field by 35k. It depends if he wants to try surging or just an even pace. I'd love to see a sub 64 half to break everyone but realistically i would be surprised to see a sub 65. Who knows with Ryan but I'm sure he's looking for he win.

Has there been a two-time trials winner previously?

I'm not Hall, so I don't know what he would do, but:

I wouldn't go out that hard. No reason to bother. I'd just run with the lead pack, assuming they go out at a reasonable pace, and wick it up at 20k or 30k.

If his fitness is as good as we all think it is (2:07? vs a bunch of 2:10 guys?), he'll have no problem with a nice steady effort (which we know he loves) starting with a good distance still left to go. It leaves him with more in the tank, without having to depend on hard surges in the late stages of the race.

If he goes out on 2:10 pace with everyone (assuming the leaders go out around there), and then picks it up to 2:06-2:08 pace at halfway, it shouldn't be too hard for him, but very few would keep up.

Does Ry do XF? I bet he could take it out real fast if he does. He'd be really strong from all those kipps and tire flips and kettle ball swings.

There's going to be a serious lead pack with Hall, Meb, etc then out in front there's going to be a pack of participants like Wardian who have no shot of making it but want to get a fast time. Serious lead pack will overtake the other guys 5 miles in then Hall drops everyone at the half.

There is also serious prize money to be made by the winner.

Has there been a two-time trials winner previously?[/quote]

Shorter 72&76.

gxhm wrote:

There's going to be a serious lead pack with Hall, Meb, etc then out in front there's going to be a pack of participants like Wardian who have no shot of making it but want to get a fast time. Serious lead pack will overtake the other guys 5 miles in then Hall drops everyone at the half.

I seem to remember this happening before somewhere...

Hall hates to compete against other runners. He isn't motivated by beating people or catching up to other runners and passing them. He is intrinsically motivated by running fast and consistent. He is a time-trial runner at heart and would thus be served best by a hard steady effort.

Barring sickness or injury the only way Hall misses making the team is if tries to crush it from the gun, finds out he's having an off day, and fades badly. Better to play it a little more conservative and if he's feeling good pick it up in the second half. If he's on that approach doesn't decrease his chance of winning and it reduces the chances of self-destructing.

Citizen Runner wrote:

Barring sickness or injury the only way Hall misses making the team is if tries to crush it from the gun, finds out he's having an off day, and fades badly. Better to play it a little more conservative and if he's feeling good pick it up in the second half. If he's on that approach doesn't decrease his chance of winning and it reduces the chances of self-destructing.

Agreed. Best to wait until the half before tightening the screws.

Citizen Runner wrote:Barring sickness or injury the only way Hall misses making the team is if tries to crush it from the gun, finds out he's having an off day, and fades badly. Better to play it a little more conservative and if he's feeling good pick it up in the second half. If he's on that approach doesn't decrease his chance of winning and it reduces the chances of self-destructing.

I see your point, but I think with Hall there are two things to consider: one, he seems to run best from the front, and gets antsy if he has to follow too long. Two, Hall on a bad day is probably still in the top 3 in the country. His last "bad" marathon was the Olympics in Beijing, and he was barely beaten by Ritz. So his downside in this race from blowing up isn't too big.

Not Ryan Hall wrote:

If he goes out on 2:10 pace with everyone (assuming the leaders go out around there), and then picks it up to 2:06-2:08 pace at halfway, it shouldn't be too hard for him, but very few would keep up.

That sounds about right to me, but Ryan is unpredictable.

Hall might go out with the pack for 10k, but after that, I think he'll want to get alone - he is a time trialist, not a racer, and he doesn't want to have to race the last 10k.

I would guess he will be alone shortly after half, making the race less interesting than we might think.

The real question is how many will go out and hammer early, hoping to have the day of their lives. I think there will be several men and women who try this. I'm sure Hall will go with them...but what about the rest of the top tier - that will be the interesting call.

I believe someone other than Hall will have a 90 second lead at the halfway mark.

A 2:08 pace would be safe.

Hall on paper is 3 minutes faster than everyone else, why mess around with the possibility of some 2:11 type having a great day and running 2:09. The last thing Hall wants is to get into a footrace to the finish line. You don't want to have guys like Tim Nelson or Mohamed Trafeh hanging around with a couple of miles to go. By mile 20, you just want to have Ritz, Rupp and Meb to contine with.

agip wrote:

I believe someone other than Hall will have a 90 second lead at the halfway mark.

I don't see that happening, but if you're right, that person won't finish in the top 10.

I think 2:10 will make the team, so let's assume the big pack with Hall, Ritz, Meb, Rupp(?),Trafeh, Vaughn, Gotcher, etc. starts out around there. Anyone who is 90 sec up on a group like that at halfway probably doesn't have the chops to pull off the runaway win.

If the big pack starts slow enough for a newbie or 2:12 guy to get to halfway in 64-65 with 90 seconds lead, it might happen, but I can't see the big guns letting it go out that slowly.