SUB 5 at 50

100,000 is an obscenely high guess. I know this is already a highly debated topic, but people on letsrun need to realize that far less than 1% of the US population are avid runners, and less than 1% of those can run sub 5, and probably less than 1% of those can run that time at 50.

Under 1000 guaranteed and probably under half that.

My guess would be less than 250 50-year-olds could go sub 5 nationally. Based on the race results I see, there might be 3 from Wisconsin that could do it..

Six 50 year olds did it in 2011. My guess is fewer than two dozen are capable of it.

http://mastersrankings.com/rankings.php?pevent=ONE%20MILE%20RUN&sort=Asc&sex=Men&pseason=Outdoor&cyear=2011

M50 ONE MILE RUN Show Complete M50 ONE MILE RUN List

All American Standard: 5:10

1

4:39.5h

THOMAS CAWLEY

POINT PLEASANT,NJ on 05/22/2011

2

4:43.7h

CONOR O`DRISCOLL

NEW YORK,NY on 09/09/2011

3

4:49.5h

JOE BISIGNANO

SHORELINE,WA on 07/06/2011

4

4:50.1h

LEONARD SPERANDEO

DAVIS,CA on 01/29/2011

5

4:51.2h

HENRY WIGGLESWORTH

FALLS CHURCH,VA on 05/29/2011

6

4:56.22

PAUL GIANNOBILE

ST. LOUIS PARK,MN on 07/12/2011

METER RUN&sort=Asc&sex=Men&pseason=Outdoor&cyear=2011

From the same site, I counted 28 M50, M55, and M60 who ran 4:38 or better - which is the 1500m equivalent of the 5 minute mile.

So 50 might be a better guess?

Based on what I've seen in all-comers meets and alumni miles etc. there are probably 3-5 guys in Washington about that old that could run about 5:00 or better... and if Washington is representative of the nation as a whole, that would mean probably somewhere between 130-200 nationwide.

Way more than six broke 5 in 2011. There were 3 or 4 in Montana in indoors that did it last year that are not on that list.

InWyo wrote:

Way more than six broke 5 in 2011. There were 3 or 4 in Montana in indoors that did it last year that are not on that list.

That's the outdoor list.

With that last name, you'd think your parents would give you a more dignified first name. Oh well.

not everything makes those lists, for various reasons. I ran 4:59.23 at a meet in August, at age 50. I'm not a middle distance guy and make no claim to being a top age group runner, but I agree with the person above that 100,000 is a substantial overestimate. I'd be surprised if the real number is over 250 [5 per state -- probably quite a bit more than that in California, fewer in some small states].

Dave Haaga

Even for 20 year old's, breaking 5 is much, much harder than what you think. Up the age to 50 and its even less likely.A lot of letsrun guys say, "I have no talent but I broke 5 when I was 14 years old and now run 4:20." Or they say, "the reason that few people break 5 is because they don't train hard." It is true that more people could break 5 if they trained, but most people gravitate towards sports that they are naturally suited for. For example, people that realize that they have talent for running suit up for the track and cross teams while people that are good at tennis play tennis. I always liked basketball but since I was too short (not even 6 feet) and not quick, I switched to track and was much better suited for it.

Pointless Thread for all wrote:

How many 50 year old 5 minute milers are there in the US population. My guess there is 100,000 Americans that can run that time at 50.

Sub 5 at 50 impresses me. All these guys who are doing that and saying they don't have talent, well, I disagree. Some talent plus drive to train.

I doubt this is true. Can you name them, their times, and the meet(s) they did this?

InWyo wrote:

Way more than six broke 5 in 2011. There were 3 or 4 in Montana in indoors that did it last year that are not on that list.

You are right with your WA estimate, but CNW won the 50+ XC Nats this year and several of the last few, so it is an outlier for that age cohort. 50 @ 50 is an outside estimate, nationally, if every healthy runner were to make an effort.Also for the other guy, 4:37 is the 1500 equivalent, so 4:36 is sub-5:00.

watchout wrote:

Based on what I've seen in all-comers meets and alumni miles etc. there are probably 3-5 guys in Washington about that old that could run about 5:00 or better... and if Washington is representative of the nation as a whole, that would mean probably somewhere between 130-200 nationwide.

It's a rare achievment. I have it as a goal, was really struggling and found out I had some medical issues. I'm hoping for a simple cure and then, who knows?

Actually, at even pace 4:39 is the 1500 equivalent.

Just re-checked and 4:38.1 is equivalent (due to 109 meters shorter) so 4:37 is sub-5:00http://www.howardgrubb.co.uk/athletics/runcalc.html

Blowing.Rock Master wrote:

Actually, at even pace 4:39 is the 1500 equivalent.

I remember seeing Jim Ryun at the masters mile sometime in the mid 80's running around a 4:30 mile. I think it was at Madison Square Garden.

Well, I can only give my example. When I was young and in my prime I once did three times a mile with one minute rest between, all under 5:00. Now at 50, three days ago I ran 5:26 all out, and I'm in good shape. It's a lot harder than you'd think...but then all of us over 50 know that.