Meb should run 10k in Athens

are you kidding? meb has absolutely no chance at medalling in the 10K unless terrorists manage to wipe out the entire east african contingent and a couple other well-heeled runners.

the marathon in athens (and generally in wc and olympics) will be the great equalizer. heat, smog, humidity, pressure to not LOSE the race, etc. for 2+ hours will make the event far more wide open than just about any at the games. the 10K could conceivably be won in a time near meb's pr; surely the last mile or so will be faster than anything meb could run. the marathon will not come close to meb's pr. i'd really be suprised to see anything under 2:17 winning.

2:17? Are you kidding me? In horrible conditions in London, Rutto and Korir ran under 2:07 and a TON of other people managed to go under 2:15.

i suggest you consult an almanac before comparing london in april to athens in august.

It is going to take one hell of an equalizer. His 2:10:03 (lifetime best on Chicago course) placed him 85th on the world list. His 27:24 that he ran last month placed him 15th on the world list. I believe in miracles, but the marathon is just too many people to jump.

big differance between marathon and 10k....those 15 people ahead of Meb are pretty much going to still be ahead of Meb in the olympics. The top 5 are going to be running around 27:00 Flat...MEB WILL NOT RUN THAT...what's the point in coming in 6th who cares...there are more people in the marathon however the run is almost gaureenteed to be won in slower than Meb has run...the fact that it is the Marthaon puts into account a whole lot of factors...not saying he will win...but he has more chance of luck helping him out in the Marathon than in the 10k...no chance in the 10k...small but some chance in the Marathon.

In the 10k 9 of the athletes ahead of Meb are Kenyan which means that only 3 of them can run in the Olympics. That moves him up 6 places to 9th. 5 of the athletes are Ethiopian which moves him up 2 more places to 7th. Now he only has to beat 4 guys for a medal. Those numbers are not nearly as favorable in the Marathon as there will be nearly 35 athletes ahead of Meb on paper.

Besides an almanac, a topographical map would be useful as well. But here's the decisive point: no one could possibly have predicted more than one medalist--if even that--for the marathon in the last three Olympics. However, the 10,000 is a very different case. If one doubts this, well, I'm picking Bekele to medal at 10,000. Any doubters? Who is as certain in the marathon? Indeed, my guess is that the odds are that if I give even the most knowledgable of experts six men to pick for three medals, that at most, one man would come through (in fact, LETSRUN should conduct such a contest). In the 10,000, at best Meb gets sixth, behind three Ethiopians and two Kenyans--at best. Now, if Ritz comes in the top ten, that's great because of his age, but for Meb--no. His time is now, and his best shot for a medal is in the marathon; however, even this is a long shot, because given the heat, humidity, smog, and hilly condition of the course, everyone is a long shot.

chuck d wrote:

i suggest you consult an almanac before comparing london in april to athens in august.

Even as the mascot, I am not as much of a dreamer as you. Even if you are right I hope he gives the 10k a go first.

Meb is a proffesional runner that has ZERO chance of medaling in either event. If it is important to him to represent his country he should go in the 5k or 10k and then come back and run a fall marathon. He could have a huge pay day at either Chicago or New York and possibly win a major marathon (the fields will not be as strong because of the Olympics).

smitty,

Geb and Bekele are both running the Olympic 10,000m final. My thoughts on this are that Geb should make the move to the marathon NOW. Even in his own mind he is thinking of the marathon, "I am a marathoner. 26:41 is good speed for a marathoner, no?"

Geb has little chance of beating Bekele over 10,000m in Athens. However, on a difficult Athens course, Geb may prevail over Tergat et al in the marathon.

Geb, don't wait until it's too late!

smitty say:

>It is going to take one hell of an equalizer. His 2:10:03 (lifetime best on Chicago course) placed him 85th on the world list. <

smitty, most of those 85 will not be in Athens.

If he medals in the marathon I was wrong. If not then you are wrong. Now the important question. Would you be willing to bet 50-100k that he will medal? If not why would you expect Meb to bet $50-$100K? Please don't say for the Olympic experience as he will receive that either way.

How can anyone possibly expect Meb to medal in the 10? Geb, Bekele, and most likely Sihine will probably sweep for Ethiopia. Even if it is not an Ethiopia 1-2-3, there are too many runners with better speed than Meb. I simply don't see him running a 55 last lap or 4:04 last mile which is usually how tactical championship races unfold.

I'd say he should run the marathon. If he is well prepared, he can take advantage of many other runners having the inevitable bad day in Athens, and possibly sneak into the top 3.

So I guess your answer is YES, you would be willing to bet $50k-$100K on a medal in the marathon by Meb. I am not so confident. His pay day will at least be that in a fall marathon.

I did not say that Meb will win a medal in Athens in the marathon. I am not taking $$ into consideration here. If he wants to run in the Olympics for the honor of doing so, then that's his perogative. If he'd rather collect the money then a fall race is his ticket. What I'm saying is that Meb has a good enough shot to challenge for a medal that the Olympic race is worth a shot. You can run fall/spring big money marathons all the time...but the Olympics is a rare and special opportunity.

I love the way that non professionals make decisions and don't consider $$$. I will guarantee that you make daily decisions based on $$. Meb has the luxury of having both an Olympic Experience (5k or 10k) and still an enormous payday at NY or Chicago or Twin Cities. If he finishes 5th in the marathon it would have been a six figure mistake. Yes there will be other paydays so what. On payday at work do you say "keep that check, I have plenty of other paydays". Hell no. Don't expect other to make that decision.

and if an american medals in the marathon, what do you think his payday in a spring marathon (and future marathons) would be?

i'm not sure where you get a $50-100K number for a marathoner of meb's credentials, even an american one. his appearance fee wouldn't be nearly that much and unless he wins, he wouldn't approach that figure. plus, he has a contract with his sponsors. do you know how much of a bonus an american distance runner gets for a medal? likely in excess of the amount he could get for a fall marathon.

i'm sure you took all of these (and the many other monetary and non-monetary factors) into account when you decided for meb he should run the 10K. in fact, i think your calculus is so good you should contact meb and take over for his present agent. but then you probably are his agent already because how else would you know all these things?

Chicago will pay $30k-$50K for appearance money plus allow him to double dip with american prize money and overall prize money.

NY will pay similar appearance money plus they double prize money for american finishers.

TC will not pay appearance dollars but has a huge prize structure for americans only.

It is easy to provide reccomendations when we are dealing with others $$.

unless you have some inside info regarding what meb could get from chicago, that $50K seems a bit high. i don't want to sound like a jackass here, but meb is a 2:12 marathoner. he may be the american record-holder at 10K, but he doesn't have the name recognition nor the reputation of a culpepper or kennedy. plus, he's a naturalized american. that's fine if your KK and a former WR holder, but meb isn't. i'd personally take the risk of getting a high placing at the marathon. even a top five finish would likely add substantially to his fee. i don't think many americans, especially of the caliber of meb, will be looking for the "olympic experience". they want medals and he definitely has a good chance at that in the marathon.

differing minds have differing opinions about things so i respect your view.