Borden wrote:
I appreciate the honest feedback. And, I just dont get it.
I see how its easy to say "not enough mialge." I am savvy to that. BUT!!! I am at virtually the same weekly milage I was when I hit a 3:10 in February, but I am running it at least 0:30 faster average on all my long runs on 14 hrs of training, no rest/taper. If there is any correlation to my earlier marathon, I should be able to lop time off the 3:10, not increase it.
I love the challenge, honestly. I wish I had a good goal to set so I could avoid going out too fast and blowing a BQ (185). I have 6 weeks after the ironman to improve. I'll report back with an epic disaster or a happy ending.
keep throwing rocks. the last caluclator said i'll do a 3:20.
Hey, Borden.
If you read the text for the link I provided, the mileage figures were based off running mileage for runners. So, obviously that's probably going to underestimate your situation with a lot of cross training fitness. I would think that is obvious.
If you already exceeded the performance it predicts, then GREAT. I would guess your triathlon training of 10-14 hours per week is probably the biggest explanation for that. My (limited) understanding is that bike fitness carries over to running much more than running fitness carries over to biking. So, that helps. How "much" does that help - who knows?! I have no idea how much your XX hours of weekly biking or swimming will translate to in terms of running fitness. Is 8 hours of biking/swimming equivalent to 2 hours running? 4? 5? No idea. I would guess a triathlon forum would probably have better guesses for you in that regard.
Also, if you were ironman training leading up to the 5k 18:31, then that time is also underestimated.
Obviously there are a lot of unique factors to your situation. I don't know how you're going to get a firm goal because there is a lot of uncertainly with: limited recent races, the ironman prior to the marathon, etc.
I missed in your original post that the 3:10 was at 22 lbs heavier on the same training. That is probably the biggest thing that indicates to me you could challenge 3 hours. I've seen a rule-of-thumb of 2 seconds per mile per pound, but I've personally seen closer to 1 second/mile/lb. Using the 1 second gets you 9:36 faster. Basically 3:00. If the 2 seconds is right, then more like 19 minute improvement (I wouldn't bank of that, though).
Your long runs are 30sec/mi faster than leading up to the 3:10 marathon? At the same heart rate/effort level? That's pretty close to the 1sec/lb/mile discussed above. That points to about 13 minutes faster over 26.2. Once again, right around 3:00.
Did you complete an ironman triathlon 6 weeks prior to your 3:10 marathon? I don't believe that is optimal marathon preparation, so that will likely hurt your marathon. How much? No idea.
In summary: You have a lot suggesting you could challenge 3 flat. Completing the ironman so close to it is probably not going to help you, and might hurt you. If I had to guess, I'd put you between 2:55-3:05. I don't see how that is going to help you though, since you could probably have come up with that on your own.
Best of luck to you in both events, and with putting your knee injury behind you. Please do come back and let us know how it went.