Oly Trials Marathon Top 5--Pick em'

Look for a surprise from Max King

I believe the 6 slots will come from these ten people, with the exception of Abdi for Adam.

Anyone think Rupp might run since its in January?

No clue on mens minus Ryan Hall. Going to be a crap shoot. Here's what I would like to see:

1. Ryan

2. Brett

3. Abdi

Women:

1. Shalane

2. Desi

3. Kara

Anyone else on the women's side would be a huge surprise.

I am not so convinced Hall is a given, though it would be quite an upset if he didn't, but I am not so sure.

I noticed nobody thinks Kastor for the ladies will make the team.

Personally I want to see Desi make it. I am not so conviced Kara is a given.

Hall.

Meb.

Cox.

Loofa Dog wrote:

I am not so convinced Hall is a given, though it would be quite an upset if he didn't, but I am not so sure.

I noticed nobody thinks Kastor for the ladies will make the team.

Personally I want to see Desi make it. I am not so conviced Kara is a given.

Ritz is the ONLY American to ever beat Hall at the marathon and that was only by 34 seconds. Given the field that is going to present in January, Hall is as much a sure thing as there has ever been when picking these things.

No way on Kastor, she hasn't run well in forever and is coming back from child birth. As much as I would like to see her make it the odds are stacked very heavily against her.

Desi is also pretty much a lock to make the team, Shalane is probably more talented but has only run one marathon so who knows how it will go. Kara is the logical third choice, I just don't see any of the other women below those three making the step up to get on the team.

The races should be pretty exciting, the mens espescially because of all the unknowns.

Hall (lock)

Ritz (lock)

Torres

3rd spot is WIDE open

Rupp could jog a 2:12 and get a top 3 spot. But he won't go for the thon' until 2016.

T BONE wrote:

Hall (lock)

Ritz (lock)

Torres

3rd spot is WIDE open

Rupp could jog a 2:12 and get a top 3 spot. But he won't go for the thon' until 2016.

If Ritz was healthy and had been running, yes he would be a lock. He hasn't been though. I would be shocked if he is even on the line in January.

If Rupp runs, I would agree that he should be top 3.

haha YO wrote:

Ritz is the ONLY American to ever beat Hall at the marathon and that was only by 34 seconds.

Maybe not.

The ING NYC Marathon, 2009

MEB KEFLEZIGHI M34 8 NIKE CA USA 1 2:09:15

ROBERT KIPKOECH CHERUIYOT M31 6 NIKE Kenya 2 2:09:56

JAOUAD GHARIB M37 4 ADID Morocco 3 2:10:25

RYAN HALL M27 5 ASIC CA USA 4 2:10:36

T BONE wrote:

Hall (lock)

Ritz (lock)

Torres

3rd spot is WIDE open

Rupp could jog a 2:12 and get a top 3 spot. But he won't go for the thon' until 2016.

How anyone could think that Ritz is a lock at this point is beyond me. Seriously, he is not even a lock to make it to the starting line.

Whoops, forgot about that one. My bad.

How could you possible think that Ritz will be second or that Kara will win and Deena will beat Desi. I feel like you don't follow the sport at all.

usatf wannabe wrote:

ok, lets hear it...who will be fit, who won't....going to be here soon. A few unanswered questions of who and won't run, but lets hear your guesses....and if you're going to watch

Men

1 Hall

2 Ritz

3 Meb

4 Lehm

5 Goucher

Women

1 Kara

2 Shalane

3 Deena

4 Desi

5 Nelson (Pirtea)

Attending?

Yes

1. Hall

2. Wide open

3. Wide open

1. Shalane

2. Desi

3. Kara

Not sure of the women's order.

No one cares how you feel. Those are hardly outrageous picks.

Hall

Ritz

Meb

Aish

King

Ritz will have a great base and 'should' be healthy. Maybe not a lock, but a definite contender. Can't imagine him being outside the top 3 if he starts the race.

Hall

Hartmann

Arciniaga

Trafeh (though might not show so he isnt blood tested.)

Cabada

Davila

Rothstein

Flanagan

McMahan

Hastings

It's the same story on both sides, three strong choices then a sizable dropoff in talent. These would be:

Hall, Ritz, Meb

Desi, Kara, Shalane

I'm not sure on the order for the women, but I'm confident that this is going to be the team. If those three show up healthy, which is a good bet, any other woman making the team would be a HUGE upset.

For the men, the biggest question mark would be Ritz and his ability to show up healthy. I think the marathon is the wrong event for him (look at how his marathon career stacks up to those with similar track PRs), but he's still better than all the other guys that aren't Meb and Hall. I think Hall will win with relative ease, and I'm not sure who will take second. Anyone else making the team would be an upset, but not as big as on the women's side of things. The only wrinkle in the equation would be Rupp. If he enters it would not be an upset for him to make the team or even win, although who knows. He might be even worse than Ritz at the marathon. We don't know. Anyone know if Wesley Korir is an American yet?

Since the thread is asking for top 5 I will say Arcinaga, Hartmann, Boulet, and Rothstein come up just short. But I have no confidence in these picks.

No one cares what you think. My points were perfectly valid. 1) Kara winning the OTs is highly improbable2) It is outrageous to pick Ritz if you know the extent of his injury3) If you follow the sport you would know that it is unlikely that Desi will be outside the top 3

Hank Moody (OG) wrote:

No one cares how you feel. Those are hardly outrageous picks.

Hall

Ritz

Meb

Aish

King