S&P Sell Signal

Blowing.Rock Master wrote:

If anyone is interested, the S&P 500 issued a "Sell" signal at the close of trading Friday. The last sell signal was given on 1/11/2008 and the market fell 32.9% before a new buy signal was issued on 6/6/2009.

Do what you want with this info, but I am closing all my long term stock positions tomorrow.

The OP stated this on 8/21/2011 and the S&P closed at approx 1,123 that day. Today , 3 days later, the S&P closed at 1177.60 - a nice +4.8% gain in 3 days.

Just saying!

Nope wrote:

Off the Grid wrote:

Why? The market thinks you should pay 300bps over treasuries for BAC risk. Last time I looked at a Bloomberg screen, that was where BBB risk traded. So the market is saying BAC is close to being junk.

and if the market thinks they are going under, they will. Just ask Lehman, Bear Stearns, WAMU etc.

The market thinks BAC is worth 10% more than it was yesterday. Booyah!

and the CDS market is at 500 over. so BAC is priced by credit markets as BB, which is junk

Chimpy wrote:

The OP stated this on 8/21/2011 and the S&P closed at approx 1,123 that day.

Uh, wasn't 8/21/11 a Sunday? So the S&P wasn't even open then. Just sayin'.

Pay attention wrote:

A lot has changed since 2007. Look forward, not back.

???

*NOTHING* has changed since then. These banks are as messed up as ever. Clearly laws are no better.

Blowing.Rock Master wrote:

If anyone is interested, the S&P 500 issued a "Sell" signal at the close of trading Friday. The last sell signal was given on 1/11/2008 and the market fell 32.9% before a new buy signal was issued on 6/6/2009.

Do what you want with this info, but I am closing all my long term stock positions tomorrow.

"Stocks on Wall Street surged on Friday, leading to a weekly gain of more than 4 percent "

So brm, how did that 'sell signal' work out for you this week?

Fine. I lost $0.

I stand by what I said a few days ago. Long term sell signals from basically a 1 week decline are premature. It takes longer than that to put in a top--we will if we don't get much more rally than we've had soon. We may indeed get a sell signal (and I will go short again) but not yet.

1 week decline? The S&P was off 16% over a month when I got the sell signal. Look at the chart, the top (if it is one) started building in January. Even your 19-39 system will give a sell signal next week if the market doesn't go higher.

Blowing.Rock Master wrote:

1 week decline? The S&P was off 16% over a month when I got the sell signal.

So you actually lost 16% not $0 because the signal seems a bit late.

Tell me if I got this right.

The market was high a month ago. You stayed in.

It hit its lowest point last week. You get the sell signal. You sold and realized your losses.

The market has gone up since. You missed out on gains.

If you sold when you stayed, bought when you sold, and sold yesterday it looks like you would have been way ahead of where you are right now.

The signals that the market will roll over have been there since May. I went to cash in early July. Lucky...+0.5% on the year.

NO system can keep all your gains and get you in at the absolute bottom.

If you're so sure the market's going down, why aren't you shorting?

Off the Grid wrote:

The signals that the market will roll over have been there since May. I went to cash in early July. Lucky...+0.5% on the year.

NO system can keep all your gains and get you in at the absolute bottom.

Anyone else just not listen to any of the nay sayers and just let the market go up and down. I've made a bunch of money by just letting my money sit in the market over the last 40 years....Didn't get hit to hard over the last 2 years because any idiot could have seen that international stocks would do well starting in early 2003.

All the young ones who keep trying to time the market think what is happening right now is so scary and new. Guys wait till you've live another 20 years and what is happening right now will not seem so bad and you will wonder why you panicked because if you had stayed calm you wouldn't have lost so much money.

I've lived through many recessions and to be honest the government is telling us this is the worst ever but it sure doesn't feel like it if you have a college education. The recession in the 70's was a scary one but at that time it was more than just money we were worried about.

hmmmmmmmmm wrote:

I've lived through many recessions and to be honest the government is telling us this is the worst ever but it sure doesn't feel like it if you have a college education. The recession in the 70's was a scary one but at that time it was more than just money we were worried about.

Don't feel too smug quite yet. We're still in the early innings of this game. We are setting up for several more years of deflation, and then the nasty double digit to 20%+ inflation is going to serve the knockout blow for many people.

Of course, many people did just fine in the Depression too. Even with 22%+ unemployment, 78% of the people were employed. Lots of opportunites come during down times, so it's not all bad.

Off the Grid wrote:

The signals that the market will roll over have been there since May. I went to cash in early July. Lucky...+0.5% on the year.

NO system can keep all your gains and get you in at the absolute bottom.

You, Sargarin, and like-minded bears = dumber and dumberer

As I said early in this thread, this is a correction, perhaps a bad one, but nothing more than that. I have not sold except for one gold contract MOC at the end of last week.

The market is up presently more than 0.5% for the year. I've made more money on gold the last two years, but my 2 S&P contracts are up 225 points each since I bought them at 987 in 2009.

If I'm right about this being an Elliott Wave 4th wave triangle, you better get long before the train leaves the station. The last ride is the best ride.

coach d,

How much money do you have to put in for 1 gold contract?

Oh, and what broker do you use?

i think therefore i am wrote:

coach d,

How much money do you have to put in for 1 gold contract?

Oh, and what broker do you use?

The CME has raised margin requirements twice this month. For the full 100 ounce contract, the initial margin is now $9450 and maintenance is $7000. There are also micro (10%) and mini(50%) contracts.

Keep in mind that the full contract controls 100 troy ounces. That is presently worth $182,000, and that is what you are responsible for. Most people who have been trading futures long term will set aside cash to keep leverage within safe limits. Many professionals (and I) try to keep leverage in the 15:1 range by reserving cash. Many use t-bills for this; I keep such funds in the PIMCO Total Return Fund.

I have been with Lind-Waldock (which is now MF Global) for years, and they are one of the few futures brokerage firms that you can actually trust, and I think you can trust them just as much as you can trust Charles Schwab. I believe Interactive Brokers are also safe. Transaction costs for futures brokers are very low, and most brokers use exchange minimum margin, so you chose brokers by other standards, with safety being #1.

Off the Grid wrote:

The signals that the market will roll over have been there since May. I went to cash in early July. Lucky...+0.5% on the year.

NO system can keep all your gains and get you in at the absolute bottom.

coach d wrote:

You, Sargarin, and like-minded bears = dumber and dumberer

As I said early in this thread, this is a correction, perhaps a bad one, but nothing more than that. I have not sold except for one gold contract MOC at the end of last week.

Different priorities. Some have the priority of preserving capital. Coming back from a 50% wipe-out requires a 100% rally.

I'm not a bear - I was long 3/09. And I realize the only way to make money is to be in it. But the behavior of equity markets now does not indicate optimism among institutional participants. I/We might well be wrong, but we'll probably miss the first leg. We won't miss the whole thing IF it really recovers nicely and things return to growth.

Opposite George wrote:

Tell me if I got this right.

The market was high a month ago. You stayed in.

It hit its lowest point last week. You get the sell signal. You sold and realized your losses.

The market has gone up since. You missed out on gains.

If you sold when you stayed, bought when you sold, and sold yesterday it looks like you would have been way ahead of where you are right now.

No you got it wrong. I'm up 46% since I got a buy signal in June 2009.